Looking at the 1st Round Locks and Others..........

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by soulman, Apr 11, 2014.

  1. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    What 2014 NFL Draft prospects are first-round locks?
    • [​IMG]
    • By Bryan Fischer
    • College Football 24/7 writer
    • Published: April 10, 2014 at 07:34 p.m.
    • Updated: April 10, 2014 at 08:29 p.m.


    All it takes is one team to fall in love with you. That's what everybody keeps saying in the run up to the 2014 NFL Draft, but when May 8 actually rolls around, it sometimes can be a different story.
    [​IMG]
    To that end, we went through the newest NFL.com mock drafts, listened to all the latest rumors and considered what team is talking to what prospects. What we came up with is a list of first-round locks, other players who are likely to go in the first round (but could slip), those that are under consideration to go late in the first round and a few fringe candidates who could find their name called on the first day.

    Our research revealed 18 first-round locks, 10 likely to be selected in the first round, six that possibly will go in the first round and 14 others that could be called on the draft's first day.

    Note: Bucky Brooks' latest mock draft did not include a quarterback getting selected in the first round.

    First-round locks:

    Jadeveon Clowney
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: No. 1 overall
    High/low: 1st/3rd
    The skinny: We're getting close to calling Clowney a lock to be the first name called, but quarterback remains an option for Houston.



    Greg Robinson
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 4th
    High/low: 2nd/6th
    The skinny: Trades might have an impact on where Robinson goes, but it's looking increasingly likely that he's the first tackle off the board.

    Sammy Watkins
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 4th
    High/low: 2nd/5th
    The skinny: Based on projections, Watkins is one of only two locks to go in the first five picks.

    Jake Matthews
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 4th
    High/low: 2nd/6th
    The skinny: He's a lock to be the fourth member of the Matthews family to go in the first round of the NFL draft and could easily go in the top five.

    Khalil Mack
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 5th
    High/low: 3rd/9th
    The skinny: Unless a team pulls a shocker, Mack will be the next defensive player off the board after Clowney.

    Blake Bortles
    No. of mock drafts: 6/7
    Average position: 9th
    High/low: 1st/26th
    The skinny: Although he doesn't appear on every mock draft, it doesn't appear that the prototypical dropback passer slips to the second round.

    Mike Evans
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 9th
    High/low: 7th/12th
    The skinny: The big receiver could be Texas A&M's second (or even third) pick in the top 10 in this draft.

    Taylor Lewan
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 10th
    High/low: 7th/15th
    The skinny: NFL Network analyst Charley Casserly thinks Lewan is better than last year's top two picks.

    Anthony Barr
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 10th
    High/low: 6th/16th
    The skinny: Barr has a love/hate relationship with some evaluators but at least one team will be enamored with what he brings as a speed rusher in a draft that doesn't have a ton of them.

    Justin Gilbert
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 11th
    High/low: 10th/14th
    The skinny: Gilbert's return ability is something other corners don't bring to the table and that's why some have him as the first defensive back taken.

    Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 12th
    High/low: 10th/13th
    The skinny: It seems pretty clear that Clinton-Dix won't get past the Rams with their second first-round pick at No. 13.
    [​IMG]

    Eric Ebron
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 14th
    High/low: 9th/20th
    The skinny: The highest-rated tight end in the draft has a number of potential landing spots, but won't slip out of the first round.

    Aaron Donald
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 16th
    High/low: 8th/32nd
    The skinny: Height was a concern for some with Donald, but ever since the NFL Scouting Combine, he's pretty much been locked into the first round.

    Timmy Jernigan
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 16th
    High/low: 10th/24th
    The skinny: Where he winds up is anybody's guess, but he's firmly established himself as one of the two best defensive tackles in the draft.

    Calvin Pryor
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 17th
    High/low: 13th/21st
    The skinny: Pryor is graded by some evaluators as being right there with Clinton-Dix, but will probably be the second safety taken.

    Zack Martin
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 17th
    High/low: 9th/20th
    The skinny: It speaks to the depth of the tackle class in this year's draft that Martin is looking at going in the middle of the first round.

    Darqueze Dennard
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 18th
    High/low: 15th/30th
    The skinny: One of the most aggressive corners in the draft, the only question about him is if rapper Rich Homie Quan accompanies him to New York City.

    C.J. Mosley
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 20th
    High/low: 9th/27th
    The skinny: He is on the rise and more than one analyst thinks he's going in the top 10.

    Likely first-rounders:

    Johnny Manziel
    No. of mock drafts: 6/7
    Average position: 5th
    High/low: 3rd/8th
    The skinny: Yes, he's the top quarterback in the draft for some, but Manziel's height, off-the-field reputation and a host of other factors mean he's not exactly a lock to be taken in the first if he falls past Minnesota.

    Odell Beckham
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 22nd
    High/low: 18th/28th
    The skinny: Beckham has quickly risen to become a solid first-rounder during the pre-draft process.

    Marqise Lee
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 23rd
    High/low: 18th/27th
    The skinny: His final season at USC and injury history might scare off a team or two, but the Biletnikoff Award winner still finds a home in the first.

    Brandin Cooks
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 25th
    High/low: 18th/30th
    The skinny: He's garnered a lot of interest from the Jets, who could use his playmaking abilities on offense and in the return game.

    Kyle Fuller
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 25th
    High/low: 18th/30th
    The skinny: His stock is on the rise as he might have the most sound game tape of any corner in this class.

    Xavier Su'a-Filo
    No. of mock drafts: 7/7
    Average position: 27th
    High/low: 19th/32nd
    The skinny: He could easily find himself in the lower tier of first-round prospects, but it seems like a number of guard/tackle-needy teams at the back of the round won't let him slip by.

    Bradley Roby
    No. of mock drafts: 6/7
    Average position: 22nd
    High/low: 15th/24th
    The skinny: His sub-par 2013 season will cause some to pass on him, but he has the skills to live up to his first-round billing.

    Dee Ford
    No. of mock drafts: 6/7
    Average position: 25th
    High/low: 20th/27th
    The skinny: Ford has done his best to prove to teams that he can drop into coverage if they slot him in as an outside linebacker.

    Louis Nix
    No. of mock drafts: 6/7
    Average position: 28th
    High/low: 25th/29th
    The skinny: He will get a number of looks from 3-4 teams who must make a medical evaluation on his knee before grabbing him in the first round.

    Jason Verrett
    No. of mock drafts: 6/7
    Average position: 28th
    High/low: 22nd/31st
    The skinny: Verrett will get knocked for his size and the shoulder surgery he recently underwent, but he was one of the best players in the Big 12 before declaring.

    Possible first-rounders:

    Teddy Bridgewater
    No. of mock drafts: 5/7
    Average position: 11th
    High/low: 4th/26th
    The skinny: Many consider him the best quarterback in the draft, but he certainly could fall to the second round as there's little-to-no buzz about him.

    Ryan Shazier
    No. of mock drafts: 5/7
    Average position: 26th
    High/low: 24th/31st
    The skinny: After Mosley, it's very possible he's the next linebacker off the board.

    Ra'shede Hageman
    No. of mock drafts: 5/7
    Average position: 26th
    High/low: 14th/32nd
    The skinny: Hageman doesn't have the consistency other defensive tackles have shown, but he's a physical freak at the position when he's on.

    In the Green Room

    Derek Carr
    No. of mock drafts: 4/7
    Average position: 25th
    High/low: 20th/26th
    The skinny: The Browns and Raiders are reportedly in love with him, but it's possible he can still be there atop the second round.

    Kony Ealy
    No. of mock drafts: 4/7
    Average position: 24th
    High/low: 16th/31st
    The skinny: He's got the frame to play at the next level, but probably won't be a Day 1 starter on all three downs.

    Kelvin Benjamin
    No. of mock drafts: 4/7
    Average position: 27th
    High/low: 22nd/32nd
    The skinny: There are a number of receivers in the draft that have speed, but none come close to Benjamin's size, which is either a big plus and a big concern depending on what scout you talk to.

    Fringe candidates:

    Austin Seferian-Jenkins
    No. of mock drafts: 1/7
    Average position: 21st
    High/low: 21st
    The skinny: Some analysts think the red-zone threat is as good as Ebron among the tight ends in the draft this year.

    Cyrus Kouandjio
    No. of mock drafts: 1/7
    Average position: 28th
    High/low: 28th
    The skinny: A sub-par season and knee concerns at the combine will scare some teams, but he could end up at the back end of the first round after a marathon pro-day workout.

    Stephon Tuitt
    No. of mock drafts: 1/7
    Average position: 29th
    High/low: 29th
    The skinny: His versatility will appeal to some teams.

    Davante Adams
    No. of mock drafts: 1/7
    Average position: 28th
    High/low: 28th
    The skinny: Adams doesn't get the press of other receivers in the draft, but he was among the most productive in college.

    Jarvis Landry
    No. of mock drafts: 1/7
    Average position: 28th
    High/low: 28th
    The skinny: NFL Media draft analyst Mike Mayock loves Landry's physical nature as a receiver and he brings enough to the table that he could sneak in with a team late in the first.

    Travis Swanson
    No. of mock drafts: 1/7
    Average position: 31st
    High/low: 31st
    The skinny: We've seen centers go surprisingly early in the first round, so why not Swanson?

    Morgan Moses
    The skinny: If a team is looking for a tackle late in the first round, Moses is likely the prime target.

    Demarcus Lawrence
    The skinny: The one area the draft doesn't have depth at is pass-rushing ends, and Lawrence could be worth a late selection in the first round.

    Joel Bitonio
    The skinny: NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah first mentioned the possibility that Bitonio sneaks into the first round on Wednesday.

    Jace Amaro
    The skinny: A few teams could be looking to boost the passing game with a tight end, and Amaro has a case to be the second at his position taken in the draft.

    Jimmy Garoppolo
    The skinny: Buzz continues to build around Garoppolo and there could be a team that trades up from early in the second round to grab a quarterback with a very quick release.

    Carlos Hyde
    The skinny: With numerous off-the-field issues hurting Jeremy Hill's stock, Hyde is the only running back that could sneak into the first round.

    Cody Latimer
    The skinny: This receiver might be the hottest name in the draft right now and is in the conversation to be a late first-rounder.

    Deone Bucannon
    The skinny: With the top two safeties likely coming off the board in the top half of the round, a team might take a chance on Bucannon if there's a significant need at the position.

    Follow Bryan Fischer on Twitter @BryanDFischer.
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2014
  2. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    interesting.....

    18 supposed first round locks. I'm sure that some team will throw a wrench in that, but the list pretty much seems right. Mathematically, 5 of the people on that list will still be there when we pick
  3. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I thought this was an interesting compilation of 7 different mocks and their opinions as to where players may be drafted. He gives a range of picks and an average position based on the results from those mocks then uses it to project the 18 locks of the first round. After that are the probable or possible 1st rounders, a few who may sneak in a then those who will probably be high 2nd round pick.

    It's just based on the composite opinions of the gurus and draftniks but it's one more way of looking at what these guys see. Take it with a grain of salt because like Jack Bechta said what you hear or read between now and Draft Weekend will include some crazy shit. But at least this give a little further info to debate picks from.
  4. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Just at a glance and based on both range and average it looks like Donald and Jernigan may be there. Then Pryor and possibly Dennard and Fuller. Are those the same 5 you're looking at?
  5. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    No, I hadn't actually tried to figure out which ones. I think that's an exercise in futility. Basically, I'd have to guess the first 13 picks. No one ever has.
  6. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I just looked at those we'd probably have an interest in and who were rated at an average pick of 14th or higher. I see where you were going with it. Just strict mathematical probabilities that only 13 of the 18 could possibly be taken.
  7. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    right. exactly. Even I could do that math. But I did have to take off my shoes and get some crayons and paper.
  8. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    You don't have one of those 64 colors ones do you? My Mom would only let us get the ones with 16 when we were kids. I'm sure that somehow it's damaged me for life. Now whenever I got into a paint store I can never decide what color I want. My childhood never prepared me for so many choices.
  9. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    You can have too many. I remember I had to have the super duper set when I was a kid. I have no idea how many were in there, but there was a lot. A real lot. I remember thinking that so many were really close to one another and why would I pick one over the other (the first time paralysis by analysis struck). Many of those colors were never used years later.

    And yes.. when the discussions have gotten to childhood crayon sets, things are bad...
  10. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I felt so ugly and unloved when other kids had those 64 Crayola sets and laughed at me for that and my rubber galoshes. Where was Kyle Long then? Or in my case maybe Butkus. Well......at least it wouldn't have been Nagurski. LOL
  11. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    WTF are we talking about crayons for when I posted this wealth of info to argue over? What is this pacifist Friday?
  12. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    I don't want to argue about your damn info. I want to argue about the friggin crayons, awright!?
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  13. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    OK, then please explain to me the difference between burnt sienna and raw umber. They both liked like the same f'n ugly color to me.
  14. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    They are one family but just at opposite ends of the cooking spectrum.
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  15. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    LMAO! I prefer sienna well caramelized rather than burnt so I'll turn the heat down a bit on mine. Thanks!
  16. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Well if for no other reason than to at least steer the conversation away from Cooking with Emril and towards the draft this info helps summarize where the gurus and talking heads stand as of today. Today being the key word here. With nearly a month to go and plenty of time for misbehavior and arrests things may change a bit between now and then.

    To me one very good sign is that Mike Evans seems to rank pretty solidly as a top ten pick. The success the Bears and others have experienced with big WRs has apparently pushed his value up pretty high. Since he's been seen as a target of the Giants who may also have Donald in their sites and ranks a little higher here they may be more likely to pass on Donald and give Eli a Brandon Marshall size target.

    Anything can happen that first day if trades are happening all over the first ten picks but as it stands it looks like Gilbert and Dix will almost certainly be off the board before we pick. Maybe just before we pick if the Rams take Dix and the Lions have already taken Gilbert as some have suspected. If it falls this way then not only would Donald be there but also Jernigan, Pryor, Dennard and Fuller. Two top DTs, a top SS and two top CBs. That would be a nice group to pick from based on the Bears needs.

    If there's much accuracy to this compilation then I'd say at least four of these five would still be on the board at #13 with either Donald, Pryor, or Dennard possibly being taken before then. Other DL that have been discussed like Nix and Hageman seem to fall much farther back into the mid to late 20s whereas Fuller may be on the rise from the 20s. All things considered, and if things don't change a great deal over the next three weeks, we should be in for an exciting first day.
  17. Chicago_66

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    Starting to feel like I'd love to see Dennard in a Bears Uni. Gilbert goes higher due to return ability and we land a future number one corner. Yeah it kinda sucks to go with someone who probably won't be a bonafide starter day one but he could be the BPA if certain people are picked ahead. He'd be an awesome replacement for Peanut down the road and I'm sure he'll be contributing even if its relief play or anything, plus if Tillman or Jennings go down we have someone who can step up. What Emery did with FA allows the Bears to fix a possibly giant need in the future and with this deep draft we can still add some quality players to this defense. Who knows, with Emery running the show we could trade up and land a couple great "big name" players. Never know with Emery.
  18. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I could live with Dennard but if both he and Donald were there I wouldn't necessarily say for us Dennard is the BPA. If we needed a CB I'd probably take him but between him and Donald, and for our needs, Donald is still the guys I would take.

    Let's say both Donald and Pryor are gone. NY takes Donald, Detroit takes Dix, and St. Louis take Pryor right in front of us. So it's Dennard and Fuller at CB and Jernigan at DT. Who do you take then? I would say under those circumstances Dennard would probably be the overall BPA but is he the best pick for the Bears?

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