Mid April Mock

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by riczaj01, Apr 17, 2014.

  1. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Well above my pay grade to understand how they would do it, but I'm just stuck on how Emery stated they wanted all 4 guys on the field at the same time, and that Allen stated he wanted to play next to Ratliff, could well be that they play 4-3 over w/the NT next to the RDE and Ratty is the NT but that means they have Houston penciled in as the DT and Young as the LDE, at least on passing downs, but then on rush downs you would have Young come off and Paea would be on the field, I just don't see where the Rookie pass rushing DT gets a ton of playing time IF what Emery said was true.
  2. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Its Emerys version of the Hybrid Defense. LOL. yeah I have no idea how they do it either
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  3. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    Me neither. Just as long as Mel does, we are ok. oh crap.....
  4. sluggobear

    sluggobear Veteran

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    Some of my current thought's. Some may be gone so I included more than one after the first round
    14 Pryor possibly the best safety
    51 double down at safety J Ward or Deone Buchannon. If both gone Phillip Gaines CB from Rice. Gaines is 6' and 193 pounds and run a 4.38 in the 40.
    82 DT time - Ergo Ferguson (LSU) or DaQuan Jones (Penn State) or A Johnson (LSU)
    117 Tight End time - C Fiedorowicz (Iowa) or Xavier Gimble (USC) or Joe Don Duncan (Dixie State)
    156 ILB time - Max Bullough (MS) or Yarwin Smallwood (CT)
    183 QB time - D Fales (San Jose State) or Logan Thomas VT. Logan would need to work on fundamentals, specifically footwork to improve accuracy. big and strong (6'-6" 248 pounds) could d be another Big Ben.
    191 Running Back time - Tyler Gaffney (Stanford) or James White (WI) or Marion Grice (AS)
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  5. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    thanks for the feedback sluggo; I don't think they'll double down on S if they use the first or 2nd pick on him, but I wouldn't mind if they did, it's quite likely both would be starting week 1, but if they went CB I'd be okay with that.

    I'm a fan of Ego also, and I'm a firm believer the team needs to address the backup TE posiotn as well as ILB QB and RB.
  6. sluggobear

    sluggobear Veteran

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    It seems we are two draft choices from building an even stronger team. So I thought about how to get a few more choices. Trade 14 to San Francisco for their 30th, 56th and 77th picks. Our 14th pick is worth 1100 points, and SF would give up 1165 points.
    Some of my current thought's. Some may be gone so I included more than one.
    30 Either take S. Tuitt or R. Hageman
    51 Deone Buchannon or J. Ward.
    56 T. Gaines CB Rice or Pierre Desir (Linwood)
    77 Pierre Desir (Linwood) or Stanley Jean Baptiste (Neb)
    82
    C Fiedorowicz (Iowa) or Xavier Gimble (USC) or Joe Don Duncan (Dixie State)
    117 Christian Jones ILB (Florida State) or Yarwin Smallwood (CT)
    156
    D Fales (San Jose State) or Logan Thomas (VT)
    183 Tyler Gaffney (Stanford) or James White (WI) or DeAnthony Thomas (Oregon)
    191
    Tre Boston FS (North Carolina) or Colt Lyerla TE (Oregon) worth a gamble this late in the game
    When I look at the two drafts, I like this one better.
  7. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Sluggo, no way in hell is SF giving a 1st 2nd and 3rd to move up 16 spots in a draft that is recognized as being light at the top end but heavy throughout. Emery stated that one of the problems w/trading back is you do not get equivalent value by moving back so Chicago would more likely get sub 1100 then any team would give above it. Probably could get the 1st 3rd and maybe a 3rd day pick, or MAYBE their 1st and 2nd picks, but not getting 1-3.

    If it happened F'n sweet and take it all day; all that said I like the draft idea, it definitely allows the tema to fill a lot of holes and create depth.

    And before people kill me for not getting "value" from the trade, think about this draft, just getting the 30th's and 77th:

    30 Either take S. Tuitt or R. Hageman
    51 Deone Buchannon or J. Ward.
    77 Pierre Desir (Linwood) or Stanley Jean Baptiste (Neb)
    82
    C Fiedorowicz (Iowa) or Xavier Gimble (USC) or Joe Don Duncan (Dixie State)
    117 Christian Jones ILB (Florida State) or Yarwin Smallwood (CT)
    156
    D Fales (San Jose State) or Logan Thomas (VT)
    183 Tyler Gaffney (Stanford) or James White (WI) or DeAnthony Thomas (Oregon)
    191
    Tre Boston FS (North Carolina) or Colt Lyerla TE (Oregon) worth a gamble this late in the game

    At 30 they take Hageman, still getting a DT who can also play 3-4 or 4-3 at DT or DE, they get a starting S, and a backup CB to start next year, they get depth at TE, MLB, QB, RB, and possibly another developmental FS in boston, I personally wouldn't touch Lyerla but that's just my opinion on the subject, but Boston is a steal there.
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2014
  8. sluggobear

    sluggobear Veteran

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    I'm sure Emery has a few players tagged to grab at 14 that would forgo any trade down. If those few players are not there he will try to move down. The SF newspapers have had a few articles about the forty-niners moving up since they have so many picks, and have very few holes left to fill. They have already used two picks for Jonathan Martin and Blaine Gabbert. Players mentioned that SF would consider moving up for and will not be there at 30, are Barr, Cook, Beckham, Evans, Lee, Gilbert and Dennard. SF could even move up ahead of us.
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  9. butkus3595

    butkus3595 Veteran

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    I'd be ok with this draft.
  10. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    So in the last few mocks I've assumed that the team will go 4-3 under b/c that puts Ratliff and Allen next to eachother at DT and RDE, which is what they played last year. Lets assume it's a 4-3 Over which puts the NT next to the RDE meaning that Ratliff is the NT, which does leave a huge hole at DT. Same scenerio, Dix/Donald/Gilbert off the board. Lets also assume that the team still doesn't value S as many have reported

    14 Tim Jernigan DT FS. The Bears need a potential day 1 starting DT, and the best is off the board, so the Bears go w/the 2nd best choice.
    http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=18281
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1986976-timmy-jernigan-scouting-report
    http://nfldraftgeek.com/timmyjernigan_scoutingreport.html
    http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2014tjernigan.php

    51 Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU: Bears need help at depth at OLB, it looked solid before hearing about Brigg's shoulder brace, but being thin behind 1 of the OLB and MLB is to much and Noy could step in and start if necessary this year, and very well could be a starter next year regardless of how things work now this year.
    http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2014kvannoy.php
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...report-nfl-outlook-for-byu-outside-linebacker
    http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=3658
    http://www.nfldraftgeek.com/kylevannoy_scoutingreport.html

    82 Deone Bucannon SS Wash State Bears finally address S in the 3rd, he's not a top S prospect but considering the horrid play last year and the low level of talent they brought in to "compete" he still stands a strong chance of starting.
    http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2014dbucannon.php
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ing-report-nfl-outlook-for-washington-state-s
    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1737409/deone-bucannon
    http://nfldraftgeek.com/deonebucannon_scoutingreport.html

    117 Aaron Murray QB Georgia. Bears get a guy that can be developed over the next 2-3 years as the backup and potential trade back if Cutler is kept in the 4th year of his contract.
    http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2014amurray.php
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ay-scouting-report-nfl-outlook-for-georgia-qb
    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1664257/aaron-murray

    156 Xavier Gimble TE needs a lot of work on fundamentals, but w/Rosario and Mulligan on the team he won't see a ton of time this year anways, this is a guy to build up as a backup TE for next year and could be a ST's contributor this year
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...rimble-scouting-report-nfl-outlook-for-usc-te
    http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Xavier-Grimble-89779
    http://www.everyjoe.com/2014/03/27/sports/xavier-grimble-scouting-report-2014-nfl-draft/


    183 Bennett Jackson ND CB/S.Bears get a depth ST CB/S tweener he won't be taking anyones starting job, but at CB that can be addressed next year.
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...scouting-report-nfl-outlook-for-notre-dame-cb
    http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/college_player_scouting_report.html&player=210
    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1749630/bennett-jackson

    191 Alfred Blue RB LSU, Bears need depth at RB and get it w/their last pick
    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1749753/alfred-blue
  11. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    I didn't say they wouldn't move up, I said they wouldn't give up a 1st 2nd and 3rd to move up.
  12. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Weird rambling post alert :-)

    I've run that draft tool a ton of times now and while I "get it" that it is just a game, I think it's given me a bit of perspective on the draft process this year. I noticed that the few really solid CB's disappear quickly and what's left are not "projects" but more like ST's guys (or depth guys) who will probably never make it in the NFL as starting CB's. With Peanut where he's at right now age-wise, if we want to draft his eventual replacement in this draft then we probably need to get a CB in the first or second round.

    The high-quality safeties are almost the same. The top 2 safeties could both be gone by the time we draft at #14. There may be a few "projects" worth picking up later (still in the early rounds), but it looks like slim pickings to me. There seems to be a number of high quality DT's worth drafting in rounds 2 through 4. The talent doesn't completely dry up like at CB and safety. It looks like an abysmal year to draft a MLB. I'm not crazy about any of them.

    It does look like there are a number of solid OL that will be available in the middle rounds. It would be an easy year to get a guard or tackle project. High quality receiving TE's are pretty sparse though. Looks like a ton of solid RB's through the top half of the draft.

    It also looks like the talent drops off the cliff after 4 rounds. I guess this is probably true every year, but it really is apparent when you're down to our 5th and 6th round picks and the players left are just nothing to get excited about.

    I'm thinking we may get the most roster help this year by drafting the first two rounds with safety and CB (or CB, safety), and getting a DT in the 3rd. If you take a DT in the first, it means we're probably not going to get a great safety in this draft. They will be gone. I'm not convinced the top DT's in this years draft are that special anyway, but that's just my feeling (I realize most disagree with this assessment). But S/CB in the first may make more sense. I'd probably go 1-safety if one of the top two are available, and 2-CB, and 3-DT.
  13. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    JABF, I agree w/most of that. Of all the mocks I've done and therefore read about The DT's seem better later, and CB/S are just okay depth guys after the 2nd. But again I was looking at the idea the Bears don't value S. I probably should have went w/a CB in round 3 but a CB won't start regardless and a S will. I'm thinking the best they can do is get a depth guy at CB this year anyways and hope to draft Tillmans replacement via the draft.
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  14. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    If Emery traded down from 14 to 30 and got only an extra 3rd in the process, he's a fool. That's a very lopsided trade and not even close to reasonable value. He should let out a hearty laugh and then immediately hang up the phone on that offer. Don't even bother to say no thanks.
  15. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    MP, as well he should I was being lazy and didn't want to look up the value of a 4th-7th. But at the same time if Emery called SF and asked for the 1st 2nd and 3rd picks for the 14th they would let out a hearty laugh and then immediately hang up the phone on that offer and not even bother to say no thanks.
  16. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    I realize the trade value chart is a guide only and no trade is ever exactly "even" but let me demonstrate:

    #14: 1100 pts
    #30: 620
    #62: 284
    #77: 205

    As you can see the 14th pick is worth approximately (slightly less) SF's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd by POINT VALUE.
  17. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    has no one listened to Emery when he said yo udon't get equal value for moving back?
    You are not getting 1100+ points for the 14th pick; and DEFINATELY not this year where the draft isn't top heavy.

    Emery would probably be happy w/1K in trade value, which would be something along the lines of sub the 3rd and get a 5th or 6th.

    The only way they could get 1100 or more points is if a HUGE player dropped, Barr, Watkins, or one of the qb's. But if it's Donald or Pryor Dix or Mosely you aren't getting 1100.
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2014
  18. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    I already covered "equal value". Emery said its hard to get "good value" which is why he views trade downs with a justifiably skeptical eye (as he should). If someone calls you to trade up (which is the usual scenario), then the onus is ON THEM to make the deal worth your while. If it's the opposite, then you're communicating weakness by in effect saying "we don't like anyone available at our pick that much". That's why you better be darn sure offering a trade down is the right move for your team knowing full well you're gonna be giving up some point value to make it happen.

    The other thing you surrender in a trade down (and most people don't think of this) is control over your draft. Especially if you you trade down far. The player(s) you plan to use your now lower pick on may not make it there like you predicted. Then you're up the creek without a paddle. You end up with an extra pick or two and "quantity over quality" so to speak plus the value you gave up in transaction cost to initiate the trade. That's why in most situations I'm not a fan of trade downs. Especially so when my team is the caller and the partner is the call-ee. Just pick the guy you want like Emery did with Long last year and don't try to get too cute cuz you'll often end up being burned.

    Here's another thing people tend to forget: having/getting a slew of "extra draft picks" is not the panacea that it seems like on the surface.

    If you're an expansion team starting out from nothing or a franchise undergoing a major multi-year rebuild with a thin roster, having a bunch of a extra picks will help you add young/cheap developmental depth for the future, sure. Obviously this doesn't apply to SF here who has something like 10+ picks this year with an already well-stocked roster.

    So then the extra picks are really only useful as ammo to either A) move up for immediate quality over quantity or B) exchange for higher picks in next years draft. Otherwise, if you cant make those deals happen and you're forced to use all your picks, you will end up drafting a slew of players who can't possibly fit onto your final 53 man roster. You will end up have to cut a bunch of rookies who will quickly be picked up off waivers by other teams if they have promise. In effect, you end up drafting for other teams who then pluck some of your ideas away basically for free.

    If the rest of the league is smart, they will tell the Niners to screw off. If SF won't make a trade deal that's well worth your while, then force them to use all their picks knowing full well they can't possibly sign that many new rookies to the final roster.
  19. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    NE and SF would disagree w/you on the extra picks things. They've built or are building teams constantly in the running for SB's.

    You only lose control IF you only are targetting 1-2 players in that area of the draft you are moving down to. And it also depends on the draft, a top heavy draft you will get more value for the top picks but lose more control, a middle to bottom heavy draft you are going to get less value but use don't lose control as quickly b/c the value of the players is all realtively the same....like this draft.

    The other problem you aren't looking at, is that other teams will want to trade back this year, again depth is greater then the top, so SF is not calling just the Bears, they are calling Everyone from 10-18 looking to trade down, and will get the best offer. And IF there are more teams looking to trade back then trade up, which this year there will be and normally is, the value of your draft position drops.

    btw this is why I'm not worried about trading back, it won't happen unless someone REALLY special drops, which isn't likely to happen. I've done a few mocks, and the mocks work out better value wise, but no team is giving up the point value to gain the extra player or 2.
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  20. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    All I'm saying is "don't trade back just because you're in love with the idea of extra picks". It has to make sense risk/benefit wise and be reasonable value all things considered. If SF calls Emery May 8th when we are on the clock, there's a reason they're calling.

    They A) must see something they want and can't wait for and B) be looking to unload extra picks for higher immediate quality. They wouldn't be doing it just to help us out.

    Let's not forget that NE has had a long term elite franchise QB in place they miraculously got with a great/lucky pick in the 6th. And SF got Kap in the 2nd and was able to then unload Smith for another 2nd + a pick this year. We had to spend 2 1sts and a 2nd and later 2 3rds just to finally after years and years get a QB who could throw and a WR who could catch. We still need PLAYMAKERS (on the D side now).
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