NFP Mock v2.0 by Greg Gabriel/Eric Galko

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by soulman, Mar 28, 2014.

  1. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    NFP Mock Draft 2.0
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    By Greg Gabriel March 26, 2014 3:11 PM

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    NFP Mock Draft 2.0

    By Greg Gabriel and Eric Galko of optimumscouting.com

    Now that we have gotten though the first wave of free agency, clubs now have a better feel for what they need to do in the draft. That said, Eric Galko from Optimum Scouting and I have gotten together again to do the NFP Mock Draft 2.0. Eric, again, has the odd number picks and I have the even picks. Just as in Draft 1.0, players that I liked for my teams were often picked by Eric’s teams.

    Eric and I will have two more mocks before we actually get to the May 8th NFL Draft. Draft 3.0 will be sometime around Easter Sunday.

    1 – Houston Texans – Jadeveon Clowney – DE – South Carolina - Clowney is the most talented player in the draft. J.J. Watt can help him learn what it takes to be a top NFL player.

    2 – St. Louis Rams – Greg Robinson – OT – Auburn – This is a prime trade-down spot. If the Rams stay, taking Robinson fills a need with a young and talented tackle.

    3 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Teddy Bridgewater – QB – Louisville – QB is a huge need for the Jags and Bridgewater is the best QB in the class. There could be pressure for them to take semi-local hero Blake Bortles.

    4 – Cleveland Browns – Jake Matthews – OT – Texas A&M – Yes, the Browns need a QB, but this is too high to take one. Their offensive line also needs to upgraded, and Matthews can play tackle or guard.

    5 – Oakland Raiders – Sammy Watkins – WR – Clemson – The Raiders could also use a quarterback, but again, this is too high to take one. Watkins is the best player on the board and very talented.

    6 – Atlanta Falcons – Khalil Mack – OLB – Buffalo – Atlanta could be a team that looks to trade up. If they stay where they are, Mack is their man.

    7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Eric Ebron – TE – North Carolina – The Bucs took care of a lot of needs in free agency. Ebron gives them a big, athletic, flexed tight end who will create match-up problems.

    8 – Minnesota Vikings – Justin Gilbert – CB – Oklahoma State – Corner is a huge need for the Vikings and Gilbert is the best in this year’s class. He has the size to match up against some of the big receivers in the division.

    9 – Buffalo Bills – Taylor Lewan – OT – Michigan – The Bills have needs at WR, TE, and safety but Lewan is too good to pass up. He can start right away at right tackle. This could be a trade down slot.

    10 – Detroit Lions – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix – DS - Alabama – The Lions have needs at both corner and safety. Clinton-Dix can play either safety position and be a quality player from day one.

    11 – Tennessee Titans – Darquese Dennard – CB – Michigan State – Dennard replaces Alterraun Verner, who the Titans lost in free agency.

    12 – New York Giants – Mike Evans – WR – Texas A&M – Evans is a big-time receiver who steps in and replaces Hakeem Nicks.

    13 – St. Louis Rams – Calvin Pryor – DS – Louisville – The Rams need a physical downhill safety and that is the strength of Pryor’s game.

    14 – Chicago Bears – Kyle Fuller – CB – Virginia Tech – Many had thought the Bears would take a defensive lineman here but they took care of that need in free agency. The top three bears corners are all on the wrong side of 30.

    15 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Ra’Shede Hagemen – DT – Minnesota – The Steelers could also go for a tight end or a nose tackle with this pick. Hageman brings value at this pick.

    16 – Dallas Cowboys – Aaron Donald – DT – Pittsburgh – The Cowboys just signed Henry Melton, so how does Donald make sense? Melton can play DE also and Donald is the best player on the board. They could also look at Kony Ealy from Missouri

    17 – Batimore Ravens – Jace Amaro – TE – Texas Tech – This is a need pick. Amaro did not have a strong combine, but came back and looked terrific at his pro day. He has very impressive tape.

    18 – New York Jets – Anthony Barr – OLB – UCLA – The Jets have a need at corner and wide receiver but the top corners have already been selected. Many have Barr as a top 10 pick and has too much value to pass on.

    19 – Miami Dolphins – Zack Martin – OT – Notre Dame – Martin has been very quietly climbing draft boards. He is very technique sound and hasn’t missed a start in four years. He has added value in that he can also play guard.

    20 – Arizona Cardinals – Blake Bortles –QB – Central Florida – Bortles is talented but still needs developing. There are few who are better at that job than Cardinals Head Coach Bruce Arians.

    21 – Green Bay Packers – C.J. Mosely – LB – Alabama – Mosely is a value pick here. Many have him as a top 15 player. The Packers could also go for a defensive lineman at this spot.

    22 – Philadelphia Eagles – Odell Beckham Jr. – WR – LSU – Jeremy Maclin is on a one year deal and DeSean Jackson could be traded. Beckham is the type of receiver that Chip Kelly likes.

    23 – Kansas City Chiefs – Marqise Lee – WR – USC – The Chiefs took a hit in free agency, losing a lot of depth. Because of this, they could draft any number of players. Andy Reid has a history of drafting playmakers high.

    24 –Cincinnati Bengals – Cyrus Kouandjio – OT – Alabama – The Bengals lost Anthony Collins in free agency. Kouandjio is the same type of big, massive player. Some teams have a concern about his knees. Anthony Munoz had the same medical concerns when the Bengals drafted him.

    25 – San Diego Chargers – Louis Nix III – NT – Notre Dame – Nix is the best nose tackle in the draft and I’m surprised he is still on the board here. He fills a need and is also a value pick.

    26 – Cleveland Browns – Johnny Manziel – QB – Texas A&M – The Browns are patient and don’t over draft at the position by taking a QB with the fourth pick. It pays off as Manziel is still on the board.

    27 – New Orleans Saints – Jerimiah Attaochu – OLB/DE – Georgia Tech – The Saints have a need for an edge rusher. Attaochu fills that need and can also play in coverage.

    28 – Carolina Panthers – Brandin Cooks – WR – Oregon State – Cooks steps in for Steve Smith right away. If the Panthers don’t take a receiver, it could be an offensive lineman.

    29 – New England Patriots – Kony Ealy – DE/OLB - Missouri – The patriots have been known to trade down and they could do it here. If they stay, Ealy will have to learn to play some on his feet, but he also gives the Pats a needed edge rusher

    30 – San Francisco 49ers – Bradley Roby – CB – Ohio State – I thought about wide receiver at this spot, but good corners are hard to find and they cost a fortune in free agency. It’s better business to develop your own.

    31 – Denver Broncos – Xavier Su’a-Filo – OG – UCLA – The Broncos need to upgrade their interior offensive line. Su’a-Filo is big and athletic and has experience playing tackle, also.

    32 – Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Shazier – LB – Ohio State – With the workout Shazier had both at the combine and his pro day, I’m surprised he is still available. Pete Carroll loves athletic defensive players and that’s what Shazier is.

    Follow Greg on Twitter @greggabe
    Follow Eric on Twitter @OptimumScouting
  2. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    This mock makes me sad b/c it has Gilbert, Dennard, Pryor and Dix all gone by 14.
  3. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Here's Greg Gabriel's first post FA Mock Draft. It's easy to see where some if the shifts have taken place. Some players have dropped, other risen, and a few new faces have made the top 32. Hopefully this spurs some great discussion since according to Gabriel the Bears focus will now go from the DL to the Defensive Backfield.

    In this Mock v2.0 both Safeties are off the board; Dix @ #10 to the Lions, and Pryor @ #13 to the Rams right before the Bears pick. We also see both Gilbert @ #8 go to the Vikings and Dennard @ #11 got to the Titans. Obviously the run on DBs begins early and here Gabriel feeling the Bears won't want to miss out select Kyle Fuller CB/Virginia Tech, 6'/193lb.

    KYLE FULLER CB, Virginia Tech
    • 2014 Grade: A 6.9 HT: 6'0" WT: 193

    Kyle Fuller – Virginia Tech
    Fuller is a fourth-year senior and a three-and-a-half-year starter for the Hokies. He has also been a valuable special teams' player for them throughout his career. This year, Fuller played well the first half of the season before an injury forced him to miss four games and part of a fifth. It is unclear whether he will play in their Bowl game.

    As a player, Fuller has all the tools necessary to play at the next level. He has good size (6’0 – 194), has speed (4.47 est), and is very quick, sudden, and athletic. In their defense, he lines up on the short side of the field and is used in press, off, and zone coverages. He is an extremely aware player and knows exactly what is going on around him. There are many corners who sit back and don’t aggressively play the run. That is not the case with Fuller. He reacts very quickly and comes up strong. He can be a good tackler but needs to wrap better.
    In coverage, he shows a good jam and has good mirror skills. He has the speed to cover deep routes and the quickness to stay with receivers through moves. In off and zone he is very aware and will help out when free. He has excellent ball reactions and is very quick in transition.

    I like the way Fuller plays the game. He is tough, instinctive, and productive. He has the physical tools to play the game at a high level in the NFL and, assuming he checks out medically, should be drafted high.

    Follow me on twitter @greggabe

    Based on Gabriel's scouting report Fuller seems to be a good fit for the type of CB the Bears like to have and he's someone with enough size to play the RCB position when Peanut retires. He's also a good STeams guy which gives him a role to play this year while learning the defense. Fuller could be Emery's surprise pick but the injury issue would be a concern. I don't have any more info on that so maybe someone else can chime in with what they know.

    My own opinion hasn't changed. If we take Fuller we'd be taking a player who won't start this year and there are good CBs in the draft every year so I don't see us missing out on a chance to get a world beater here. He rates as high as Gilbert and Dennard yet he still seems to be the 3rd best CB in this draft. Gabriel believes we've solved our DL issues with the signing of Allen, Houston and Young. I don't agree. We still need to replace Melton so the need for a 3 tech DT still exists.

    I simply rate pass rushers ahead of pass defenders especially when, if we took Fuller, we'd be investing in one who wouldn't be starting day one in lieu of a player who would. I don't deny the need at both FS and CB but once again I wouldn't pass up an elite inside pass rusher and penetrator like Donald for a CB unless the guy was and absolute monster player and while Fuller is good, he's still the 3rd best CB in this draft vs Donald who is the best 3 tech DT.

    As you see via Gabriel's predictions Donald doesn't get past Dallas @ #16 despite their investment in Melton who he believes they would move out of position to DE just to accommodate Donald. When healthy Henry Melton was a top five DT and yet Gabriel projects him being moved to DE? That says something very strong about just how good a 3 tech DT Donald is rated to be. This is all just imaginary right now but Gabriel was the Bears director of college scouting at one time so he's not ignorant about the draft habits to NFL teams.

    So let the discussions begin anew but my mind hasn't been changed. Dix and Pryor are gone, Fuller is a fit yet not a day one starter for the Bears and the 3rd ranked CB, would you take the 3rd ranked CB over the #1 ranked 3 tech DT?
  4. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    This mock makes me sad b/c it's really dumb to take the 3rd or 4th best CB @ #14 while leaving the best 3tDT pass rusher (an equal or greater need) still on the board to be plucked away 2 picks later. If Emery does this I'll want to cut his balls off.

    Not saying Fuller isn't a promising prospect, he is. And yes, we definitely need a young corner in the pipeline. But at 14 you expect to draft a "starter" or player who sees the field considerably beyond STs only. Fuller isn't going to start ahead of two 2-time probowlers, one of whom is a Bears legend. A pick similar to this would be ideal IMO for round 2 but overkill for #14.
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  5. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    PS: This mock shows a DB run early which is not entirely unrealistic. Detroit, Tennessee, and Minnesota especially need DB help at the top of the depth chart. The Bears need for CB is at the "B" position of the depth chart. So unless Kyle Fuller is somehow way way better than a realistic 2nd rounder (as Tillman was) the Bears could draft the following day, this pick would be a huge reach for someone who won't start for at least a year.
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  6. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    In all probability, unless there's still an injury concern, Fuller won't get out of the first round. He's good enough for that. But at #14 with Donald still on the board I think it's not the best pick that could be made. I think Gabriel is basing this on two factors neither of which I think will apply.

    1) There's obviously an early run on DBs with the top two CBs and the two top FS going in the first 13 picks so he feels Emery will make a panic pick here so as not to be shut out. I don't buy that at all. In fact if he really wants Fuller he could very easily trade down and still have a pretty good shot at getting him. So I don't see Fuller so much as an option at #14 as I do a trade down choice.

    2) I think it's faulty logic to assume that having fixed problems at DE and theoretically improved the edge rush that Emery would ignore his needs at DT. The same logic he applies to the CB situation exists at DT as well with Ratliff being just as old as Peanut and Collins, still rehabbing, signed for only one year. Jennings is signed for four years and if Peanut shows no signs of a decline he could easily be brought back for another year.

    3) How does he come to the conclusion that Dallas, having just signed a top 3 tech DT, would move Melton out of position and yet comes to the conclusion that the Bears, who just lost Melton, wouldn't jump at the chance to replace him with a younger and quite possibly better version? Dallas needs DE/OLB type rushers and with Barr dropping down or Hageman still on the board why take Donald? To assume the Bears don't still need an interior rusher just doesn't fit to me.

    I wouldn't have much of an issue with them taking Pryor here since there's a very good chance he's start before the year was out but I can't see drafting a CB to sit behind your starters and play STeams where the risks of injury are greater. Especially not a kid who missed almost half of his Sr. year recovering from an injury he sustained there. IMHO this would be a bad pick at #14 with Donald still on the board.
  7. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    It is based on that alone. I think Fuller is a great prospect and quite possibly a better fit for the Bears than the other two because he's an aggressive kid much like Tillman and Jennings. He has the skills the Bears look for and if he's healthy he's not a bad pick. But not only is it too early in this draft, I think it's a whole year early to spend a 1st round pick on a CB when there are greater needs at DT and Safety.

    One interesting thing about this mock that to me says they're relying too much on the perceived needs of teams is they've upgraded some players who quite possibly don't deserve it and let others fall far more than I might have imagined is. Where is Jernigan? He's no longer even ranked in the first round and yet he's the 2nd best DT???? Gabriel has pushed Hageman way up to #15 where Jernigan was and dropped Jernigan out of round one completely! I can see Nix holding in there because he's the best pure NT but Hageman over Jernigan??? Now that's what I call a real reach.
  8. omc1969

    omc1969 Veteran

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    When I first read this mock draft I thought it must be a joke. Then I looked at the calendar and realized it was simply a BAD mock.
    :eek:
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  9. The Benjamin

    The Benjamin George Halas Staff Member

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    While we need a CB in this draft, I think Safety is a much higher priority.
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  10. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    No DT is going to start either, both would be in rotations though, and nothing about Ratliff/Paea/Tillman screams durable anymore, so there is a legit chance that a CB could be starting,

    That being said I still don't want the 4th best of whatever taken at 14. I still think if you were to have the draft fall out like this you have to look at DT/DE or LB in no paticular order.
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  11. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    There's no "CB rotation" like there is on the DL. Unless peanut or Jennings gets hurt, they will be the ones on the field, not the #3 guy who was foolishly over drafted at #14. He will riding the bench until one of the other two cant go.

    A Donald pick would START (in rotation of course as always) at 3tDT. No different than Melton did last year prior to his injury. People were naturally and understandably impressed by the Seattle DBs last season. Sherman got a lot of the press coverage oxygen especially in the post season run. But people tend to overlook the fact that Seattle also had a fantastic rotation of pass rushers plus Mebane as their run-stuffer in front. Not taking anything away from their secondary, but watching Manning get "happy feet" and quickly become inaccurate in the SB wasn't due to their safeties.
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  12. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    I there is nickle, I consider that a rotation guess i was lazy w/my terminology and the #14 is going to be there for that, AND I don't see Tillman playing more then 12-13 games again, so the next guy up is going to see significant time imo.

    I disagree I don't think any DL starts this year over what we have. Rattliff is going to start, if not it's going to be Houston.
  13. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    OK, we had this same debate last year after Long was picked 1st. You said he wouldn't "start", I said he would. Gentleman's bet:
    IF we take Donald @ #14, I firmly predict he will "start" as 3-Tech. We will see, ok?

    Houston for the 99th time is a LDE who can/will flex inside on occaision as Izzy used to. He is a DE FIRST. Phil has already talked about and ate crow over "learning a lesson about forcing position changes" re: Hardin/Shea. He's not going to magically convert Houston into a full-time 3-Tech DT. Houston's job will be primarily to play LDE, stuff the run/set the edge, keep blockers off Shea, and add whatever pass rush he can on top.
  14. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    MP way to get 1 correct :) doesn't make you correct every time in the future. There was also no Jay Ratliff playing OG for us last year.

    If he is a DE first then Phil paid 3 DE starter money, does that sound correct? I think Houston is going to play 3 downs from DT to DE in a rotation w/Ratliff, Collins rookie DT, AND w/Allen/Young/Bass. There is nothing in Houstons past that says HE'S ONLY THIS. In Oak he played NT-OLB, but in Chicago he's limited to LDE; no sir, Emery wants a confusing movable D, and that will start w/Houstong up and down that line constantly, not 2 downs at DE or 2 downs at DT.
  15. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    So therefore you admit that the "next guy up" at CB would be a depth player as it stands now, correct?
    Do we want to draft a "depth player" at #14? Wouldn't that be better left for round 2?
  16. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    I'm just saying that, with rare exception, you don't draft a player in the top-15 who isn't expected to be at the top of the depth chart in whatever position he plays. Donald would very likely be that; Fuller would very likely NOT be that.
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  17. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    MP W/that I agree which is why I've been very pro S at 14 b/c it's the only real position that is guaranteed that the player would be a 3 down starter.
  18. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Absolutely Benji. The only way this might make some sense is if they plan on trying Fuller at FS. The only problem I see with that is that we've already done that twice with two other college CBs who were only 3rd round picks therefore less risk. Hardin isn't even in the NFL any longer and if Conte doesn't recover his game well enough to even earn a roster spot let alone start then he may well go the same route.

    Emery has already admitted that he may have been, no he WAS, in error expecting players like Hardin and McClellin to play NFL positions they were ill equipped to play. Would he really spend a 1st round pick on another guy hoping to either play him out of position until the RCB opened up or simply use him on STeams until then and expose him to more injury risk?

    I'm hoping he's stopped all that foolishness and so far it appears he has but taking Fuller over a Safety (if available) or worse yet over a 3 tech he needs far worse NOW than he does a CB seems like a backwards move to me.
  19. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    I can live with a S @ #14 if he's truly the best available defense player. I'd prefer DT but Donald may be gone and Jernigan I'm 50/50 on. You're right, at least a stud S would be at the top of our depth chart unlike a 1st round CB.
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  20. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Yeah. :sad44:

    And that's exactly my point as well. We can draft a CB this year, and we should, but spending a 1st round pick on one in lieu of meeting more current needs seems to be a waste to me. I like Fuller as a player but for the Bears not more than I like a DT or a Safety in one. If this is Emery's pick then he'd have to be pretty sure of being able to draft a DT in the second round that could replace Melton because if what I've read is true Houston is not being moved to DT.

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