NFP Mock v2.0 by Greg Gabriel/Eric Galko

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by soulman, Mar 28, 2014.

  1. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    This is the point that many just don't get. Players drafted in that range are drafted to fill immediate needs. I fact I'd say that's true of at least the top 20. Some have used Aaron Rodgers as a guy who was drafted to sit. OK, first all of all he was drafted 24th not 14th, second the Packers have a habit of drafting QBs each year and trading them if they can't use them, third the Packers must have felt they were loaded enough at other position that they didn't need an immediate starter anywhere, and last when Rodgers was drafted QBs did not normally start in their first years. He would have started even sooner had Favre not played diva for so long. So let's not use Rodgers as a comparison.

    If Fuller is drafted to play CB he'll sit. That's a given. Emery didn't give Jennings a $5 mil a year deal and agree to pay Peanut as much $3.5 mil to watch them sit and we already know Peanut won't agree to play FS so the Bears must have committed to him as a CB only. If they try Fuller at FS then how long will it take before he learns that position. Conte didn't get it until year two and then regressed in year three. Fuller is a talented kid no doubt but not the kind you want to sit for a year or two while there are other needs to be met.

    Maybe Emery asked Gabriel to mock Fuller to him to throw the hounds off the trail for a while. I wouldn't put it past him. It seems like before this 8 out of ten gurus had Donald as their pick and the other two had either Jernigan or one of the Safeties. Alluding to him taking Fuller is a nice ruse if only to make that pick a little less obvious. But how can this one be taken very seriously when Jernigan drops out of the top 32 picks? Unless there's some news on him I haven't seen yet that jut doesn't seem possible.
  2. BearJim

    BearJim Veteran SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I had seen this mock before & I thought it was a bit off then. But if it plays out this way with the top 2 safeties & corners gone & Donald available @ 14 you take Donald. The only way you don't is if the Bears have another player available that they rate higher on their board or someone offers them a trade down they can't refuse in an attempt to get Barr or Bortles.

    I still hope we draft Donald. I keep seeing a 3rd & long front 4 of Young, Houston, Donald & Allen, and it brings a smile to my face. We could even blitz McCellan just for the hell of it. The only way you have a chance to block that IMHO is to max protect, leaving us 6 to cover 1-2.

    Now, having said that, I'm starting to think that if Donald & at least one of the top safeties are still there @ 14, they will draft the safety.
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  3. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    A) Whatever the motivation this mock is stupid as far as the Bears go. Emery would have to be a total idiot to pass over Donald for the 3rd best rookie CB who will be #2 on the depth chart at his position.

    B) Yeah, DT or S make by far the most sense and are by far the most realistic @14. Unless Emery feels the S player available is >> the DT player available, I'd prefer to favor drafting pass rushing DT over S. Because....I feel it's the more impact-ful defensive position and the one that's a harder "hole to fill" in FA if you need to later on.

    That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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  4. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Couple of thoughts. Granted this is not Emery's pick for now but....

    I believe the consensus is there are potentially 3 or 4 top CB's in the draft so I would not get hung up on the 3rd best. Dennard, Gilbert, and now that Fuller has proven he has the speed many analyst are putting him in with Dennard and Gilbert, I would question if he could potentially play FS while waiting for his turn at CB position. He could learn the Defense, get the speed difference between college and pros, and learn the QB's is the pros can put the ball in places where most college QB's cant. With Robie and Fuller the last top CB's available they will not last for rd 2. If we want a top CB this year we would have to take early or we will get a significantly lower capability per analyst rankings and scouting reports.

    Somebody commented on Jernigan vs Hageman. Quick thought is Hageman is thought to have more upside than any of the DT's including Donald by several analysts. Granted its upside and most state Donald is more ready now, but many mocks have Hageman ahead of Jernigan and Nix. Hageman is thought to be able to play anywhere on the line and be a threat. I think this board jumped on the taking some plays off statement with no data. Been many debates on Donald and if he was double teamed or not, or schemed against in the bigger games and without looking at the tape etc.... The same could be said of Hageman as he was the only threat at Minnesota. Can anyone seriously name a player on Minn team without looking it up. Hageman is liked far more off this board than on this board, for whatever reason. I still like him and trying to warm up to Donald with you all but scared in a couple yrs we will wish we had Hageman.

    Final thought, Rd 2 should still have Quarles there if we went with somebody other than DT primarily Donald in Rd 1. In reality we would probably try to make a trade with Barr and Fuller on the board. Could be a problem if Dallas still went after Donald, most mocks we take Donald so Dallas going for either a DE to replace Ware of a Nose tackle. Interesting prediction on moving Melton to replace Ware and drafting Donald. I have seen Ealy, Jenigan or Hageman primarily for Dallas but Donald was not an option as he was already gone. Dallas has Marinelli who is well aware of Meltons capabilities so this may be interesting to watch come draft day.
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  5. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    It may end up being a moot point with Donald since I wouldn't be surprised to see NYG take him at 12.

    Hageman seems like a Emery-orgasm type pick (athletic, big upside, versatile, but with a thin resume of actual college accomplishment). I could see him pulling the trigger just because it seems like Phil-like thing to do in the first round.
  6. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    No, far to many people have talked about Hagemen, nonono Emery is going to go COMPLETELY out of the ball park, unless something has changed, which I wouldn't bank on.
    TE/LB/DE are far better bets then S/DT at this point b/c Emery loves to keep them guessing.
  7. Ctree5454

    Ctree5454 Rookie

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    Fuller is one of my favorite players in this draft. He would have to sit until next year cause I dont think he is a fit for nickel but would be a great replacement for peanut. I actually like Fuller and Verett a lot more than Dennard. Verett is probably the best pure cover corner and will come up and play the run. He reminds me a lot of Jennings but better in man to man.
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  8. dachuckster

    dachuckster Veteran SuperFan

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    One name I haven't seen mentioned here (for CB) is Pierre Desir from Lindenhurst. Maybe a bit of a project. But nice size and speed. If he falls to the 3rd or 4th round ...
  9. BearJim

    BearJim Veteran SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I like him too but not at #14. Verett would be a great NB. He breaks on the ball bigtime & is pretty physical for his size.
  10. BearJim

    BearJim Veteran SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I like him as well. Dude has 25 INTs in his college career! Like you said, a bit of a project but the kid has a lot of talent. Some mocks have him going in the 2nd rd.
  11. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Well thought out and well written and some very good points.

    Fuller has been climbing the board and you probably could throw a rope around the top three and different teams would find something they like about each. They all rate about the same so their rankings are little more than someone's idea where they fit as far as whose most likely to take who. To me Gilbert has the added attraction of being a top return guy like Patrick Peterson, Dennard is supposed to be a top cover corner (which we don't really need) and Fuller the most physical of the three. They might see him as a FS but he's a little smaller than you'd like for that and once again you have to ask would Emery try one more time to make a FS out of a college CB? If that's the plan then I'd surely wait on a CB and take him later on. Guys like McGill or Stanley Jean-Baptiste have more of the size you'd like in a FS and there's less risk. I'd also suggest that learning the FS position is harder for someone whose never played it as we're learning with Conte. I don't think Fuller is a bad pick but is he the best pick based both on need and BPA and I also think that of you want a Safety then take a Safety not a CB. JHMO

    Hageman has more upside so he bounces Jernigan from the top 32. Nah, I can't but that. Not on the basis of their comparative college productivity, or lack thereof, and one with a rep as a real high motor guy vs another who has a rep for coasting an not getting the most out his abilities. I realize that Hageman is moving up the boards based on this upside but the road to GM hell is paved with the good intentions of drafting guys based on their upside. Jernigan may be falling but last month he was mocked at #16 to Dallas and this month he's not even a top 32 pick? That's a little severe isn't it? It seems the rationale behind that is nothing more than having the Bears pass on Donald so Dallas takes him when having signed Melton I'd think Hageman or Jernigan would be more there guy. Only Pitt takes Hageman now rather than Nix when Nix is a far better fit for them at NT. Of course this is only v2.0 of what may be at least several more mock drafts from these guys so we may as well be prepared for a few more shifts in drafting strategies around the league. This is a great example of what I don't like about Mocks and why I never do one. They yank one or two players around and then the whole board shifts and gets seriously out of whack. There are guys in this one who weren't even mentioned a month ago. Where did they come from.

    I'm sorry but the singular signing of Allen does not obviate the need for a 3 tech DT unless Houston is tabbed to play there and from what we've learned so far he doesn't want that and he's not. IMHO he was never a good enough pass rusher to play that RDE spot so he was always a left side guy and I said that right after we got him. If people somehow get the idea that now that we have Allen to play RDE then Young will play LDE and Houston move inside I would say that's wrong. Izzy is the guys most likely to handle swing duty as a LDE/DT and Young most likely to play in the DE rotation and pass rush. Despite Allen's desires I don't believe he'll play 90% of the defensive snaps here like he did in Minny.

    If Aaron Donald becomes the 3 tech threat I believe he can be I'd have no regrets passing on Hageman no matter what he becomes because he's yet to show he has the drive to become that player whereas Donald has shown it in spades. I like high motor guys which is why I love the Allen pickup and Houston, and Young. They all fit into that slot as does Paea. Julius Peppers is a physical freak who, like Urlacher, can virtually dominate a game all by himself and we've seen him do it. But we've also seen what happens when a physical freak turns off his motor and mails it in. So despite his seeming physical superiority THAT would be my concern with Hageman and I'd rather let that be some other teams problem than mine. I like guys who carry their own fire as opposed to ones you have to keep lit.

    I suppose Dallas could move Melton to DE and I think the Bears experimented with some of that with him before. He'd probably need to drop a little weight like Houston says he's like to do but I'm sure he could do it. But then what do you have? A top five DT turned into an average DE? It's hard to tell and there's always some risk involved. Seems to me that if there's a team out there who could benefit most from Hageman's versatility and his need for coaching it's Dallas and Marinelli. That's the kind of coach Hageman needs and he could turn him into something special. Look what he was able to do with Melton, Izzy and Wootton. This whole DLine thing fits far better if you send Donald off to the Bears, then Nix to Pitt, and finally Hageman to Dallas. Each team gets the guy who best fits there needs and style of play. Of course things never quite fall into place all this neat do they.

    This has gone on far too long so I'll just say in closing that if they took Fuller or one of the FS and they were able to get a guy like Quarles in round two or even Jernigan if he fell that far, and I think that's highly unlikely with Jernigan and doubtful with Quarles but that still works as far as meeting higher needs. I'm not fixated on only one way that it has to be but more on the overall plan for the first three round since that's were we're most likely to get starters and front line backups.
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  12. dachuckster

    dachuckster Veteran SuperFan

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    I saw that too. Hopefully his lack of football experience (no HS football ??) and small college background will hold hime back.

    But if we get Desir or Stanley Jean-Baptiste in the 3rd I'd bee a happy camper
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  13. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Desir has been falling based on what I recall as being a somewhat disappointing Combine but he's a guy who if you wanted to spend a mid round pick on a potential FS prospect he's got some skills that may fit better there than at CB. He doesn't seem to have the speed to match up with faster WRs but he's got the size and range to play Safety and the physical attributes of one as well. I don't think he'd be ready to play right away but with some decent coaching he might make the jump.

    If we don't take a FS in round one and can't get at a guy we like in two then this kid may be worth a look in the third or fourth round. Taken there we don't have as much risk as taking a kid like Fuller in one and then using him to compete at FS until Peanut retires. Desir is also an inch taller, has a better reach, and is 12-15lbs heavier than Fuller. The biggest issue with him is that he's not played against top competition so his conversion to the NFL is gonna take some time I would guess.
  14. dachuckster

    dachuckster Veteran SuperFan

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    I was watching Desir in the Senior Bowl and he looked pretty good. Nice speed, smooth moves, decent coverage skills.
  15. kevperro

    kevperro Rookie

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    No way are the Vikings not taking a QB in their first pick.
  16. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    I hope so. I hope there is a run on players "we don't need" like QBs, WR, OT, etc early on so we have our pick of the litter as far a top D-prospects go. That's the ideal scenario.
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  17. BearJim

    BearJim Veteran SuperFan DBS Writer

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    As would I Chuck. Two big CBs with tons of ability that just need some coaching & maturity.
  18. BearJim

    BearJim Veteran SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Very good point Soul. He's one of those small college guy who has been getting by with his athletic ability & size so if he can be coached up who knows how good he could be.
  19. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    IMO, this is being evaluated through the wrong lens.

    The discussion has revolved around taking the "third best" CB over the best at another position. I think that is going down the wrong road and I don't think that is how the evaluation will be made. There are several issues I have with that line of reasoning.

    1. You don't know who is the best at any position, much less the third best until most of the season has been played.
    2. A player should be picked on the basis of how much better (or closer to playoff contention) he will take the team rather than how many have been picked at his position prior to him.
    3. A team can want to pick BPA all day long, but no matter how you slice it, need still enters the equation.
    4. You want to try and pick a player that is a good value at the draft position you are picking. That really has nothing to do with how many have been picked at his position already. Maybe the other two ARE better, but maybe the third best is still the best at that draft position that the draft has seen for a while.

    In the end, you don't know that the two CBs picked ahead of him are really better. Emery may feel that with picking Fuller, he IS picking the best CB and that having the best CB is a good value at 14. I just don't think that the number of players at the position picked prior is really the measuring stick that provides the best decision metric.

    I am not advocating picking Fuller @ 14, but does it make it any better if no CBs were chosen prior and then Emery picked him because he felt that his combination of speed, press coverage and mirroring abilities were the best? He would still be picked at 14, so why is that better than picking him at 14 if two others went before him? While I'm not advocating picking him, I'd have no serious problem with it either.

    In general, a penetrating DT is going to have more effect in the game because it affects the play prior to it even getting to the backfield. Whether or not Emery would feel that given his FA moves that a DT still rates a 14 pick, only he knows. I would still pick one though. I think we can be ok at CB this year and maybe next year. S is a problem, but I think DT is more important. We need S help badly and I would not have a problem with a S @ 14 if he were really a difference maker.

    Another real issue is LB. Briggs is broken, being held together by a harness. He may still be effective, but he probably will not be dominant. I would like to keep dominant and I didn't see dominant last year, so a LB choice would be ok with me also. The trick is to pick a person that is going to make the biggest impact. THAT ROLLS INTO A POSITION OF NEED. The reason I say that is if you have an Urlacher and Briggs in their prime and the BPA is a LB, you don't do it. You have good players already and the BPA at that position just won't make the biggest incremental impact, no matter who he is. So lots of factors to weigh. There are plenty of players that can help us. We have no idea who will still be there or what other ideas Emery has in mind for FA upgrades either before or after the draft. Those plans also come into play when making those choices.

    I'm not a big mock guy because my choices don't matter. Only Emerys do and he doesn't pick until May.

    Biggest improvement for the team IMO as it stands are

    penetrating DT - just because I don't think he exists on the team and that guy makes things easier for many players
    stud LB - We have a better line, but opposing players also get paid to get past our DL. When they do, we need a LB group that imposes their will. We don't have that any more
    stud S - A physical presence in the backfield that gives a player pause is important. We need people that can be where they need to be and be an effective and imposing backstop
    stud CB - usually more important than S IMO, but last on my list because I think we are ok for a little longer. But another factor not mentioned above is how hard it is to get a good player at a draft position (in other words, a starting dominant OT is not normally available at 14. If there is one, maybe Phil has to pick him - same argument for any position such as CB- or maybe Phil thinks we will draft so low next year that he needs to get a CB now or he will not get the quality he wants next year...)

    But I'm sure ol Phil has his own list.
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  20. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    flip S w/DT and I agree w/all that BiH, but all the reasoning is perfectly sound.

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