NFP Mock v2.0 by Greg Gabriel/Eric Galko

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by soulman, Mar 28, 2014.

  1. soulman

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    Well thought out and well written and some very good points.

    Fuller has been climbing the board and you probably could throw a rope around the top three and different teams would find something they like about each. They all rate about the same so their rankings are little more than someone's idea where they fit as far as whose most likely to take who. To me Gilbert has the added attraction of being a top return guy like Patrick Peterson, Dennard is supposed to be a top cover corner (which we don't really need) and Fuller the most physical of the three. They might see him as a FS but he's a little smaller than you'd like for that and once again you have to ask would Emery try one more time to make a FS out of a college CB? If that's the plan then I'd surely wait on a CB and take him later on. Guys like McGill or Stanley Jean-Baptiste have more of the size you'd like in a FS and there's less risk. I'd also suggest that learning the FS position is harder for someone whose never played it as we're learning with Conte. I don't think Fuller is a bad pick but is he the best pick based both on need and BPA and I also think that of you want a Safety then take a Safety not a CB. JHMO

    Hageman has more upside so he bounces Jernigan from the top 32. Nah, I can't but that. Not on the basis of their comparative college productivity, or lack thereof, and one with a rep as a real high motor guy vs another who has a rep for coasting an not getting the most out his abilities. I realize that Hageman is moving up the boards based on this upside but the road to GM hell is paved with the good intentions of drafting guys based on their upside. Jernigan may be falling but last month he was mocked at #16 to Dallas and this month he's not even a top 32 pick? That's a little severe isn't it? It seems the rationale behind that is nothing more than having the Bears pass on Donald so Dallas takes him when having signed Melton I'd think Hageman or Jernigan would be more there guy. Only Pitt takes Hageman now rather than Nix when Nix is a far better fit for them at NT. Of course this is only v2.0 of what may be at least several more mock drafts from these guys so we may as well be prepared for a few more shifts in drafting strategies around the league. This is a great example of what I don't like about Mocks and why I never do one. They yank one or two players around and then the whole board shifts and gets seriously out of whack. There are guys in this one who weren't even mentioned a month ago. Where did they come from.

    I'm sorry but the singular signing of Allen does not obviate the need for a 3 tech DT unless Houston is tabbed to play there and from what we've learned so far he doesn't want that and he's not. IMHO he was never a good enough pass rusher to play that RDE spot so he was always a left side guy and I said that right after we got him. If people somehow get the idea that now that we have Allen to play RDE then Young will play LDE and Houston move inside I would say that's wrong. Izzy is the guys most likely to handle swing duty as a LDE/DT and Young most likely to play in the DE rotation and pass rush. Despite Allen's desires I don't believe he'll play 90% of the defensive snaps here like he did in Minny.

    If Aaron Donald becomes the 3 tech threat I believe he can be I'd have no regrets passing on Hageman no matter what he becomes because he's yet to show he has the drive to become that player whereas Donald has shown it in spades. I like high motor guys which is why I love the Allen pickup and Houston, and Young. They all fit into that slot as does Paea. Julius Peppers is a physical freak who, like Urlacher, can virtually dominate a game all by himself and we've seen him do it. But we've also seen what happens when a physical freak turns off his motor and mails it in. So despite his seeming physical superiority THAT would be my concern with Hageman and I'd rather let that be some other teams problem than mine. I like guys who carry their own fire as opposed to ones you have to keep lit.

    I suppose Dallas could move Melton to DE and I think the Bears experimented with some of that with him before. He'd probably need to drop a little weight like Houston says he's like to do but I'm sure he could do it. But then what do you have? A top five DT turned into an average DE? It's hard to tell and there's always some risk involved. Seems to me that if there's a team out there who could benefit most from Hageman's versatility and his need for coaching it's Dallas and Marinelli. That's the kind of coach Hageman needs and he could turn him into something special. Look what he was able to do with Melton, Izzy and Wootton. This whole DLine thing fits far better if you send Donald off to the Bears, then Nix to Pitt, and finally Hageman to Dallas. Each team gets the guy who best fits there needs and style of play. Of course things never quite fall into place all this neat do they.

    This has gone on far too long so I'll just say in closing that if they took Fuller or one of the FS and they were able to get a guy like Quarles in round two or even Jernigan if he fell that far, and I think that's highly unlikely with Jernigan and doubtful with Quarles but that still works as far as meeting higher needs. I'm not fixated on only one way that it has to be but more on the overall plan for the first three round since that's were we're most likely to get starters and front line backups.
     
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  2. dachuckster

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    I saw that too. Hopefully his lack of football experience (no HS football ??) and small college background will hold hime back.

    But if we get Desir or Stanley Jean-Baptiste in the 3rd I'd bee a happy camper
     
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  3. soulman

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    Desir has been falling based on what I recall as being a somewhat disappointing Combine but he's a guy who if you wanted to spend a mid round pick on a potential FS prospect he's got some skills that may fit better there than at CB. He doesn't seem to have the speed to match up with faster WRs but he's got the size and range to play Safety and the physical attributes of one as well. I don't think he'd be ready to play right away but with some decent coaching he might make the jump.

    If we don't take a FS in round one and can't get at a guy we like in two then this kid may be worth a look in the third or fourth round. Taken there we don't have as much risk as taking a kid like Fuller in one and then using him to compete at FS until Peanut retires. Desir is also an inch taller, has a better reach, and is 12-15lbs heavier than Fuller. The biggest issue with him is that he's not played against top competition so his conversion to the NFL is gonna take some time I would guess.
     
  4. dachuckster

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    I was watching Desir in the Senior Bowl and he looked pretty good. Nice speed, smooth moves, decent coverage skills.
     
  5. kevperro

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    No way are the Vikings not taking a QB in their first pick.
     
  6. MPbears68

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    I hope so. I hope there is a run on players "we don't need" like QBs, WR, OT, etc early on so we have our pick of the litter as far a top D-prospects go. That's the ideal scenario.
     
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  7. BearJim

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    As would I Chuck. Two big CBs with tons of ability that just need some coaching & maturity.
     
  8. BearJim

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    Very good point Soul. He's one of those small college guy who has been getting by with his athletic ability & size so if he can be coached up who knows how good he could be.
     
  9. Bearsinhouston

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    IMO, this is being evaluated through the wrong lens.

    The discussion has revolved around taking the "third best" CB over the best at another position. I think that is going down the wrong road and I don't think that is how the evaluation will be made. There are several issues I have with that line of reasoning.

    1. You don't know who is the best at any position, much less the third best until most of the season has been played.
    2. A player should be picked on the basis of how much better (or closer to playoff contention) he will take the team rather than how many have been picked at his position prior to him.
    3. A team can want to pick BPA all day long, but no matter how you slice it, need still enters the equation.
    4. You want to try and pick a player that is a good value at the draft position you are picking. That really has nothing to do with how many have been picked at his position already. Maybe the other two ARE better, but maybe the third best is still the best at that draft position that the draft has seen for a while.

    In the end, you don't know that the two CBs picked ahead of him are really better. Emery may feel that with picking Fuller, he IS picking the best CB and that having the best CB is a good value at 14. I just don't think that the number of players at the position picked prior is really the measuring stick that provides the best decision metric.

    I am not advocating picking Fuller @ 14, but does it make it any better if no CBs were chosen prior and then Emery picked him because he felt that his combination of speed, press coverage and mirroring abilities were the best? He would still be picked at 14, so why is that better than picking him at 14 if two others went before him? While I'm not advocating picking him, I'd have no serious problem with it either.

    In general, a penetrating DT is going to have more effect in the game because it affects the play prior to it even getting to the backfield. Whether or not Emery would feel that given his FA moves that a DT still rates a 14 pick, only he knows. I would still pick one though. I think we can be ok at CB this year and maybe next year. S is a problem, but I think DT is more important. We need S help badly and I would not have a problem with a S @ 14 if he were really a difference maker.

    Another real issue is LB. Briggs is broken, being held together by a harness. He may still be effective, but he probably will not be dominant. I would like to keep dominant and I didn't see dominant last year, so a LB choice would be ok with me also. The trick is to pick a person that is going to make the biggest impact. THAT ROLLS INTO A POSITION OF NEED. The reason I say that is if you have an Urlacher and Briggs in their prime and the BPA is a LB, you don't do it. You have good players already and the BPA at that position just won't make the biggest incremental impact, no matter who he is. So lots of factors to weigh. There are plenty of players that can help us. We have no idea who will still be there or what other ideas Emery has in mind for FA upgrades either before or after the draft. Those plans also come into play when making those choices.

    I'm not a big mock guy because my choices don't matter. Only Emerys do and he doesn't pick until May.

    Biggest improvement for the team IMO as it stands are

    penetrating DT - just because I don't think he exists on the team and that guy makes things easier for many players
    stud LB - We have a better line, but opposing players also get paid to get past our DL. When they do, we need a LB group that imposes their will. We don't have that any more
    stud S - A physical presence in the backfield that gives a player pause is important. We need people that can be where they need to be and be an effective and imposing backstop
    stud CB - usually more important than S IMO, but last on my list because I think we are ok for a little longer. But another factor not mentioned above is how hard it is to get a good player at a draft position (in other words, a starting dominant OT is not normally available at 14. If there is one, maybe Phil has to pick him - same argument for any position such as CB- or maybe Phil thinks we will draft so low next year that he needs to get a CB now or he will not get the quality he wants next year...)

    But I'm sure ol Phil has his own list.
     
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  10. riczaj01

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    flip S w/DT and I agree w/all that BiH, but all the reasoning is perfectly sound.
     

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