POLL: Would you like to see the Bears trade down for extra draft picks?

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by JustAnotherBearsFan99, Apr 13, 2014.

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Would like to see the Bears trade down for extra draft picks?

  1. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    We will end up with a good player at 14. A day one starter. Between Dix, Donald, Pryor, Denard, Gilbert two of them will be there. When talking about trading down what range are we talking about? A small move to net a 3rd/4th rounder (17-22 range?) Down to the bottom to get us a 2nd and 5th ish? (28-32) Out of the first round completely JA style?

    Again, I don't see a need to trade down unless we get a guy who slips and we have two or more teams in a bidding war for our pick in order to get that guy. It could be a top qb, maybe Barr or Mack, Possibly one of the 3 OTs. Evans? Who knows the draft is a crazy thing, but unless we get a blatantly lob sided deal then I would say no.

    Ok, its all hypothetical with no proof that there is any chance or interest, but I'll play along......hey we all are trying to kill time until may 8th.

    Here are some examples of what I'm talking about.

    Scenario 1: Anthony Barr falls to 14. SF is still gearing up to dethrone the Seahawks and with Aldin Smith just getting in trouble for a bomb threat at LAX yesterday its safe to say he may be gone. They know we probably won't take him but he won't get past Pitt behind us at 15 so they call. Emery can blackball them and threaten to either take Barr or trade the pick to someone else so we get
    y
    Pick 30,56,61,129 (1381)

    For Pick 14 (1100)

    At pick 30 we are probably looking at Fuller, Jernigan, Hageman, Roby, Hyde, Hill

    Scenario 2: Browns go QB with pick 4 and Mathewes falls to 14. Same thing, they call looking for a LT to protect their shiny new QB so Emery plays lets make a deal.

    Cle trades 26, 35, 3rd next year (aprox 1350)

    For 14 (1100)

    We are looking at Pryor, Jernigan, Hageman, Fuller


    Scenario 3: Mosely falls to 14 and Broncos are trying to add last piece to their "win right damn now" puzzle. Emery convinces them that they make a deal or we take Mosely and they bite.

    Den trades 31, 63, and a 1st next year (Aprox 1380)

    For 14 (1100)

    We are looking at the same guys as the SF scenario


    =========================================================================================================================================================

    Unless we can get a deal like this, then I say we just take a guy at 14. We will have a good shot at a great player there and someone who can help us day one. Unless Emery is absolutely sold on a guy later that we can trade back for, stay at 14.
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  2. BelieveInMonsters

    BelieveInMonsters Veteran

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    No IMO quality is more important than quantity. Besides we already have plenty of picks.
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  3. sluggobear

    sluggobear Veteran

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    If Donald, Gilbert, Dix, Pryor, Dennard are gone, I would consider a trade down. I would not trade out of the first round though.
  4. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Guys help me out here (anyone, not just Griz). Here's what I don't understand, but I'm not claiming to be the sharpest knife in the drawer here, by any means. I look over Griz's three scenarios and wonder if moving down a bit doesn't make our team stronger, faster. Take the one above (and I realize these are just possibilities thrown out by Griz that may not be available). But if we move from #14 to #26 we get an extra second round pick at #35. Couple this with our own second round pick (#51) and we get three players in what can be a very sweet spot for talent. We got Matt Forte at #44. Peanut was picked at #35. Briggs at #68. Alshon Jeffery was a #45. These are all Pro Bowl players we've picked in this "sweet spot" of the draft. In fact, sometimes I think we do better in these rounds than the 1st round where we have had a number of outright busts.

    And in all of these scenarios that Griz posted, we get another "extra" guy NEXT year. None later than the 3rd round (still in the sweet spot IMHO).

    Is the #14 pick that much better than dropping to #26 and getting extra picks in that "sweet spot" that's given us multiple Pro Bowl talents? If there's one thing I've learned watching the NFL draft it's that it's very rare to have a "sure thing" player in the first round. So it's not like that #14 guy is guaranteed to be a beast. And I figure with our upgraded scouting department and Emery (rather than JA and the weaker scouting department of the past) we should be able to hit more home runs in this sweet spot, like we did with Alshon.

    Anyway, just asking. I'm probably not understanding this and making an ass out of myself, not seeing something here. Or maybe I'm not understanding something :-)
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2014
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  5. BelieveInMonsters

    BelieveInMonsters Veteran

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    If there's any team that has the extra picks and the desire to trade up, it's the 49ers. Watch them closely.
  6. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    That would be scenario #1 of Griz's three possibilities. As a result we would have 5 draft picks in the top 3 rounds this year, and 10 draft picks overall this year. I'd like to think Phil Emery and the upgraded scouting department could do some good with that. We'd still have a first round pick. Again, I'm asking what would most help our team? I'd like to think Emery could do some serious restocking of talent with 5 players selected in the top-3 rounds of this draft.

  7. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    Can you really look at it this way? This is saying that 5 lower picks are better than three higher picks. Just like a mock or anything that pre-dates the actual draft, how can you realistically answer that?

    Tell me who would be the three higher players and who would be the five lower players and then you would have a shot at answering the question. And even then, you might not have much higher than a 50% confidence level because all you are going on is their college playing days. You can say that more picks gives you better odds, and that is true. However, do the higher ones also provide better odds? I think so, but not as effective a hedge as more picks.

    I just don't know how you debate something that you don't know what you are debating yet. I think all you can really say at this point is that yes, moving down from that scenario MIGHT be a good idea depending on who you want and who is left. So then what happens when you move down and the guy you thought you were going to get gets picked before you pick? That is also a risk that needs to be factored in. How do you feel about the move then. Now maybe you have more guys and you really don't like them as much as you thought you would. See what I mean? Just too many variables to say you should do this or that at this point. Just my two cents.

    That was my long answer. My short answer to whether or not I would like to see the Bears move down is "I have no idea. How would I know?"

    In just general terms though, if you don't like anyone at 14 (don't see why not because there are going to be several very good players there), then I think if you are going to pick someone you really don;t want, sure go down and see if you can get a few more picks. And maybe that guy you really don't want is now someone you want with a lower pick if he is still there.
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2014
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  8. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    That was a hypothetical scenario that I just threw out as an example. If a deal like this was on phils table, then I think it would be a no brainier to pull the trigger. Its numerically lobsided towards us but if you look at low draft pick teams jumping up into that top 15 range it usually costs that. Also depends how much they really want the guy they are targeting. SF is in a win now, like Denver why I threw them into a scenario. They may be willing to take a talent hit down the road for a big upgrade now. Now what would be really sweet if Seattle and SF ended up in a bidding war for a guy like Barr or Mack.
  9. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I'm not debating so much as (first of all) trying to make sure I understand Griz's trade down scenarios. It seems like a lot we'd get for trading down in the first round. I can see why Belichick does this so often. But it all rests upon being able to have a higher percentage of accurately evaluating talent. I realize the jury is still out with Emery and this new upgraded scouting department. But if we truly do have a pretty solid scouting crew now in 2014 (not the old JA throwing darts at a draft dartboard), then I would very seriously consider our options in a trade down. It's not like we have a top-3 pick this year. Number #14 is good, but is it THAT much better this year than #26 + having 5 picks in the sweet spot of the draft?

    When I look at #14 vs #26 (and 5 picks in the sweet spot of the draft) I have to ask myself just how valuable is that 1st round guy we'd pick? Is it truly that much more valuable? In some years I believe it is that valuable. But as we discuss the players this year, and the depth at some positions in this draft, man, I would think long and hard before I'd turn my nose up at any of those 3 scenarios Griz posted. We'd get some high-quality (very high quality) players - and 5 of them. And 5 more in the later rounds. If Phil Emery and the new beefed up scouting department is as solid as we think, then I have to believe they could really help our team with those 5 picks.
  10. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    ok. let me ask you this.

    If last year we had traded down from Long to get more picks, would two other guys have made that impact? In that case, I would say no. If you are going to pick the two best guys that were picked below him, I would ask - how do you know that we would have picked those two?

    In this years case, I don't know because I don't know who we can have at 14, or what two we would get in his stead, or how any of the three would do. We can only answer about Long now that we have seen him perform.

    IDK.... As Soul would say, mental masturbation IMO.
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  11. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I get it Griz, and I'm not putting you on the spot saying this is gospel. Just putting it out there for the sake of discussion. I might try that draft tool and see what a scenario like this would look like with real people plugged in vs. what I have been running with our #14 pick and the status quo picks remaining. It would at least put some faces to the numbers. Maybe some others here can do this too.

    And finally, I get it that this may just be a pipe dream. But it does kill some time between now and the draft. It's pretty boring at the moment :-)
  12. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    JABF the deals I threw out are best case scenario. Maybe a more realistic deal with the niners would be their first and both 2nds. Makes the numerical values more equal but they could throw in that 4th or a future pick too if they had a reason to (IE... another team was wanting to deal too or Phil could convince them we might just take their guy instead)

    But yeah, if we were able to get the kind of value I threw out there it would be great. I was just using it as an example that if we move it better be because the deal was sweet. What I don't want to see is something like...

    To SF: 14 (1100)

    To Chi: 30,61,100 (1,012)

    That kinda deal is one outta JA's playbook and if thats the case we should take a top guy at 14
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  13. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    All good points. I am going to run that draft tool and try and put some faces to these pick numbers. I've run several with our existing picks. I'll try to run it with the lower first round pick and the additional picks to see what comes up. Maybe some others here can do likewise. I realize it's all conjecture that probably WON'T happen. But it's slow and why not dink around a bit. :-)
  14. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Yep, 99% of the stuff on here that is talked about from Jan-FA then from April-Draft is all speculation and time killing. But hey, its fun to do/think about and going over every single scenario IMO makes watching the draft 100 times more fun. The more educated on something you are the more fun it becomes to watch and I don't think the draft is any exception. Being able to predict/think of stuff that is/going to happen is why I love draft weekend and literally can sit and watch the first 2 days and sometimes day 3 as well.
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  15. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    B/c of what this draft is, and what the team is needing, I don't think that getting 2 extra picks(2 in the 2nd) is bad, you still get 3 day 1 starters out of your 3 first picks, that could go A LONG way to fixing this def.
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  16. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    But Ric:
    I'm honestly just killing time with this little debate too because neither side can win this. So who would those three starters be? And who would you be giving up to get them? And how do you know those three would be available? And how do you know Phil would pick them? It is fun to fool with, but I have never ever seen a pre draft scenario that has unfolded.
  17. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Ok I played.... Here is Scenario 1...and if I had a crystal ball that could gaurentee that it would go exactly this way at least in rounds 1-4 I'd love it... By the way the sim had SF taking Barr who fell LOL
    =============================================================================================================================================================

    Round Pick Team Selection Psn School CRI Delta ReachValue

    1 30 Chicago Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M P3O +23 Value
    2 51 Chicago Ra'Shede Hageman DT43 Minnesota P3O +9 Value
    2 56 Chicago Bashaud Breeland CB Clemson P3O -3 Reach
    2 61 Chicago Tre Mason RBF Auburn P3 -10 Reach
    3 82 Chicago Dion Bailey SS USC P2 -20 Reach
    4 117 Chicago Lamin Barrow ILB LSU P3 -13 Reach
    4 129 Chicago Marcel Jensen TE Fresno State P6 +9 Value
    5 156 Chicago Shaquil Barrett OLB43 Colorado State P4R -7 Reach
    6 183 Chicago Jalen Saunders WRS Oklahoma P4 +9 Value
    6 191 Chicago John Urschel OG Penn State P4R -23 Reach
  18. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    There are any #' of guys that can be starters in the first 2-3 rounds. Any # of DB's and DL are capable of starting and playing at a high level, it's also one of the reasons a team looking to drop back WILL NOT get the better deal this year.
  19. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    yeah.... theoretically, but in reality, some of those guys that we think can be starters, really can't be and there will be a few that people did not think could be good starters that will be. Just like stocks. Give me tomorrows newspaper today and I bet I can tell you which ones will be winners. All I can say is.... three more weeks can't get here fast enough... I'd like to know what the team looks like after the draft.
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  20. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Thanks sox. I'd have to agree with you. The need is greater at S but Dennard has the size to play with the big boys like Megatron. Tough choice but we need a starter with that pick and that says Pryor. Tuitt? Man I just don't like "Domer" linemen. They usually disappoint. I think he might be a decent 3-4 DE or a 4-3 LDE run stopper but we just signed one of the best in the game to do just that. I have my doubts about him as DT though and that's what we need. I don't see him as rusher.

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