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Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by JustAnotherBearsFan99, Apr 13, 2014.
Looks like another guy who will be hopping a train to Tampa. Lovie's guys are comin' home.
Here's mine from the Fanspeak On the Clock (and as you said, we'd still get an extra guy in the 3rd round next season too).
1 29 Chicago
DT TIMMY JERNIGAN
2 35 Chicago
ILB C.J. MOSLEY
2 51 Chicago
SS JIMMIE WARD
3 82 Chicago
FS TERRENCE BROOKS
4 117 Chicago
CB PIERRE DESIR (I'd love to see the Bears draft this guy)
5 156 Chicago
TE CROCKETT GILMORE
6 183 Chicago
QB LOGAN THOMAS
6 191 Chicago
CB ANDRE HAL
Whoa, that would be a pretty powerful draft through four. Wonder if Quarles would trump Jernigan at that #29 spot but the rest sweet Jeezus!
If this is how it ended up happening I would be beyond happy. Jernigan, Mosley and Ward could all compete for starting jobs. Brooks would be a high ceiling guy if he develops as well as Thomas and Desir. Don't kow much about Gilmore and Hall but they provide depth.
That brings up an interesting topic. If Mosley starts to slip into pick 34-40 range wonder if Phil looks at trading up I think he is a great pick, just not at 14
I'm going to run the draft again this morning to see what unfolds. Maybe I'll use one of the other two draft scenarios that Griz threw out there yesterday. I completely understand that fans were sick of how Jerry Angelo traded down and picked mediocre talent.
But that doesn't necessarily mean the trade down idea itself is a bad one.
Sometimes it may make sense for a team that is a better judge of player talent than Jerry Angelo was, to harvest an extra player or two in that "sweet spot" of the draft by trading down. It also depends upon the draft-year. This year, there is some depth at some of the positions, that might make it worth our while to grab an extra 2nd rounder guy who could start day-1, if the trade down in the first round looked like it would still get us a rock solid player too. I think this is why a guy like Bill Belichick does this so often. We may like or hate Belichick, but the guy has put together a Hall of Fame coaching career by being football-smart. It's not always about the "name" draft pick that the fans want. Sometimes it makes sense to restock the cupboard with players from that sweet spot in the draft that includes the second (and even 3rd) round.
I agree with what you said I just don't think the value will be there for a trade down. The scenarios I mentioned are best case scenarios and I would hope Emery would jump all over one of those deals. More realistically though it would be US getting the short end numerically probably a SF deal would look more like 14 for their first, their later 2nd and a 5th or something. If Emery could somehow hardball them into a deal like I mentioned I would support the move down but I think if we did move we would all be disappointed on what we got back.
I agree, it would all depend upon the value of the deal. And that would be true of any trade down. Emery is smart enough to not take a bad deal here. If a good one presents itself then jump on it. If not, then stay the course with the #14 pick. I'm pretty excited about the upcoming draft either way. I just want to see who we end up with. And I could see Emery adding a guy or two after the draft too.
I think most agressive teams that have needs add players in the post draft FA. This is when players get released because of the draft players, and some of them might be better than players already on the team.
I would keep an eye on SF and Den I Barr or Mack falls out of the top 10-12. Moving up to the top 10 would prolly cost too much but If they are there after they may want to move. Both are seemingly all in this year and it may be tempting.
Okay, I ran the Fanspeak.com draft again, but this time with the "Scenario 1" option. I call this one "The Barr Scam" :-)
Round 1, pick 30 - SS JIMMIE WARD
Round 2, pick 51 - DT TIMMY JERNIGAN
Round 2, pick 56 - OG GABE JACKSON
(I couldn't pass him up) "Compares to Larry Warford, - Jackson's rare and surprising combination of size, quickness and power should remind a lot of scouts of the 2013 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Warford"
Round 2, pick 61 - ILB CHRIS BORLAND
Round 3, pick 82 - TE C.J. FIEDOROWICZ (Solid reciever AND blocker)
Round 4, pick 117 - DT EGO FERGUSON
Round 4, pick 129 - CB BASHAUD BREELAND
Round 5, pick 156 - CB DEION BELUE
Round 6, pick 183 - RB ANDRE WILLIAMS
Round 6, pick 191 - SS CRAIG LOSTON (I was shocked he dropped to here)
There may be a better chance of Shazier being there than Mosley. I'd be surprised if Mosley got past GB if he's there. He'd be a really good fit for their 3-4 and he's the kind of guy they look for. I don't know if Shazier will even drop out of round one but the odds are better with him the Mosley I would think.
I gotta say that I really don't like the SF scenario unless we can use those spare picks to move up in other rounds. I don't want to sound like a jerk but to me it's patently ridiculous for us to have ten picks. Number one we won't get all of these guys to fit needs this perfectly and half the guys we actually do get won't even make the team.
We don't need a whole lot of depth more than we need top players and core starters. Adding picks at the tail end o each round won't necessarily do that. Let another team fall for it. It's a sucker play to make a trade out of #14 to #30 like this. The Cleveland scenario has promise because we pick 5 spots higher than the SF scenario and that will make a difference. We also end up with a pick in the top five of the 2nd round and another in the top 20 (our own) so we have a shot at 3 possible starters or rotation players as opposed to two. Then I'd try to negotiate for later picks this year a opposed to a 3rd next so we have a better chance of getting a QB and a RB near the top pf those rounds before they get picked over.
If SF called with that offer I tell them thanks but no thanks.
I agree with you on that. And statistically, we probably have a greater chance of being struck by lightening than for any of this to happen anyway. It's just passing time until the draft.
I just think we'd have far more success finding three guys we could use out of the top 51 picks and then still have a shot at two more promising player and three and four. Those are guy who you usually want to keep on the roster and after all the upgrading, and considering the youth we have now, how may spots will there be for rookies?
It's tough to stow them on the PS if they have any real immediate talent another team could use and the old dodge of creating phony injuries to stow them away on IR has been torched for the most part. Even after those first five we'll still have three more picks to add some depth at or prospects and I don't know hat we'd do with more picks that low.
I guess that's why I never do mocks and seldom believe much of what they say. If the gurus hit on 50% of their picks in to rounds I'd say they're doing good.
I do get a better feel for the draft by going through these scenarios though. Not that our Bears draft will play out like the on-line drafts we have fun with - it won't. It is an eye opener when guys drop unexpectedly to you like in the real draft world, or a guy you want is taken just before you get your next pick. And then, some guys are at positions that you really don't need, but the player-value is so great you feel like you almost have to pull the trigger in some of those cases. Also, it is an eye opener (to me) to see a lot of good players between the latter part of the first round and the 4th round. I look at those first 4 picks with the trade down and think of what that does to our defense, to have these youngsters brought in, along with the FA's Emery added:
DT TIMMY JERNIGAN
ILB C.J. MOSLEY
SS JIMMIE WARD
FS TERRENCE BROOKS
Echoing some of Soul's comments here and I know we are all just shooting the shit trying to pass the time until the draft gets here since there's nothing else to talk about.
First off, the point value of this hypothetical trade way exceeds what's realistic and what the 14 pick is worth (1100, I believe). And it's widely held that the traditional point chart underestimates the true value of the mid-rounds where you can often get some really good players if you're willing to be patient in developing them.
Secondly, these draft simulators may be fun to play with when you're bored like we all are right now but wow they come up with some ridiculous falls that aren't going to happen. As in, getting players dozens of picks and sometimes even several rounds later than there's a snowball's chance they will ever make it to.
Finally, it's easy to get caught up in the frenzy of "trading down for a bumper crop of picks" when that isn't the panacea you think it is. Even if you ignore how unrealistic the scenario is, how the hell would you find roster spots for all these picks??? Unless you're an expansion team just starting our or a franchise undergoing a massive long-term rebuilding project, there's no way you can. Which means that several of your "extra picks" are going to end up getting cut to fit within the 53 man limit and (if there any good at all) will be scooped up by other teams. Problem with having "too many picks" is that you end up trading away part of the value you gave up in the transaction to in effect DRAFT FOR OTHER TEAMS on your dime.
That is true. And I agree that you can have too many picks in the garbage rounds.
I would JA know this as soon as possible.
That'll be the topic of his next article. "Garbage Picks; Making Them Payoff".
I suspect the process involved pixie dust.