The Games People Play; Picks 10-16

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by soulman, Apr 20, 2014.

  1. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I though I'd take a different approach here and look specifically at those teams who would have the most direct effect on the board when it's the Bears pick. I spent some time looking over team needs and the predictions of several draftniks, a former scout, and some of the mock drafts.

    When I compiled that data these players seem to be of the most interest to these teams based on need and how the picks fall for them. I've given at least two possibilities for each team and some dark horse picks. I've also added a trade scenario that has some merit based on a hunch.

    Maybe this will take us in a little different direction as far as conversations go since who we take is very dependent of whose taken in the picks right before us. These are all just best guesses but those guesses are rooted in what the so called "experts" are projecting.

    #10 Detroit: Primary; Gilbert/CB or Clinton-Dix/FS Dark Horse; Evans/WR
    The Lions primary needs are in the defensive backfield especially with the loss of Louis Delmas. This is weak point in an otherwise good defense. They may be tempted to take Evans to add another tall receiving threat but with Megatron they have an almost unstoppable WR already and a good TE. I think their needs on defense are greater. They can draft a big WR later in the draft to compliment Megatron.

    #11 Tennessee: Primary; Dennard/CB or Clinton-Dix/FS Dark Horse; Anthony Barr/OLB
    The Titans need to replace Alterraun Verner and if Gilbert was here they'd grab him in a NY minute but I don't think Gilbert would ever get past the Lions. If he's still on the board at #10 he's the BPA and meets a need. So they have a choice between Dennard and Dix. Dix maybe slightly higher ranked here but their need at CB is greater. If Barr falls he has to be a huge temptation for them based on my thinking that you never pass up a good pass rusher if he's there.

    #12 New York: Primary; Evans/WR or Ebron/TE or Lewan/OT Dark Horse; Hageman/DT-DE
    This one is really hard to call because the Giants, like the Bears, have several top needs. The more I think about it the less likely it seems that they'd take Donald over other needs but there's a kicker here. This may be the point at which Dallas starts trying to leap frog the Bears for Donald. Looking at the needs of the teams between 12 and 16, which don't seem to include a big WR or a TE, they may be tempted by a good offer. If not then they'll probably take either Evans to replace Nicks or Ebron to Replace Bennett and give Eli some help. Lewan is also a need so I had to throw him into the "primary group". Hageman comes into play only if they trade down and then I still think they take a WR or TE.

    #13 St. Louis: Primary; Clinton-Dix/FS or Pryor/FS Dark Horse; None
    This is the only spot in the picks before the Bears where I see no dark horse. The Rams need a Safety worse the we do and if the Lions and Titans pass on Dix and take CBs then he's 100% gone here. If he is gone then they take Pryor and he's no longer in play for the Bears. They do have other needs but I have to agree with the consensus that it will be one off the two Safeties. There's another kicker here in that if NY turns them down Dallas may approach the Rams with a trade offer but the problem they have then is that it may leave Dix there for us to take after Dallas takes Donald. I don't think they'd take that chance also realizing that Pitt may also be looking to replace Polumalu or Clark. They need a Safety too bad to risk it and two could go back to back and leave the without either.

    #14 Chicago: Primary; Donald/DT or Pryor/FS Dark Horse; Hageman/DT or Fuller/CB
    Because Emery can be very unpredictable I covered it all across the board. These are all needs but if he's there I don't know how he could pass on Donald. Pass rushing 3 tech DTs like him don't come along often and I do believe there isn't another in this draft that's even near his equal. We could draft one later but not one like Donald. If Donald is gone this is where it gets trickier. The most popular pick would be Pryor but will he take him or wait for Rd. 2 and go after Ward or Bucannon some believe are actually higher on his board? Will he risk it with Hageman who I think may be the next DT on his board or take Fuller as a safer pick? Or will he trade down there since neither of them are ranked that high? The only problem with that is the Steelers also have needs at DE and CB and Hageman is the kind of guy they could use in their 3-4 front. Which then forces the Bears to look at Fuller who won't be a day one starter at CB or start thinking about a LB because I don't think they want Jernigan at all. Lot's to ponder here.

    #15 Pittsburgh: Primary; Mosley/LB, Hageman/DE or Pryor/FS Dark Horse;Fuller/CBRoby/CB/Nix/NT
    Mosley is the best value here and also the BPA at a position of need. Hageman is gonna be a question mark for anyone who takes him but he's the kind of player the Steelers would love to turn into a monster 3-4 DE. He's probably a better fit for them than the Bears. They could also use a Safety to replace Ryan Clark. CB is a need but not as much and although Nix is a fit I really don't think anyone will take him this high.

    #16 Dallas: Primary; Jernigan/DT or Pryor/FS Dark Horse; Hageman/DT, Tuitt/DE, Ealy/DE
    If they can't trade up for Donald and now that they have Melton I think they'll take Jernigan to build the inside of their DLine. These two would be a great match with Melton as the 3 tech DT and Jernigan that 4-3 Shade NT. Pretty much the same as Melton paring with Paea in Chicago. IMO it's a better strategy than taking Donald and moving Melton out to DE. Hageman could easily sub for Jernigan here too. Tuitt and Ealy are outside chances but IMO not great picks here but Pryor is a possibility. I just think they'll work on the DLine first.
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  2. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    Great write-up and it's hard to find fault with any of the choices you've matched to teams. Pretty logical order of selections there. The big wildcard is will anyone trade up to leapfrog us? Before Melton signed on with Dallas I thought they for sure would be a prime candidate to do so in order to get Donald. But do you still think that's a realistic possibility afterwards?

    First of all, they now have a 3T who is Hot Rod's guy. They need a DE or NT more at this point.

    Secondly, the 'Boys are in dire trouble cap-wise. They really really need to bolster their roster cheaply in the draft. Would they give away picks in this situation when they're even more valuable to them than ever? To move up from 16 to 12-13 would cost them a 3rd, maybe even a 3rd + a late rounder.

    I hope Jerry stays pat.
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  3. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Good assessment. The other team potentially would be Tampa and Lovie. Everyone is thinking WR but he could get one later, I saw a mock somewhere the other day where Lovie took Donald. Not sure how practical but he also would value the 3 tech
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  4. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    Tampa already has McCoy who's one of the top 3Ts in the NFL. That team is pretty stacked on D but weak on O. I gotta believe they will go OL or WR. Of course the Lovie factor is also at play...
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  5. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Yeah I think MP covered. Gerald McCoy is THE top stud 3 Tech DT in the NFL today and Geno Atkins is probably #2. McCoy is more the size of Ratliff but Atkins is about the same size as Donald. Although he'd probably love to have the kid he has far bigger needs on offense. I think he'll take an OT if he gets the chance.

    He saw how frustrating it was in Chicago not to have the base covered and he's also seen how much more successful the Bears offense has become since we found ways to protect the QB. If he expects McCown to produce he knows has to protect him. Jake Matthews would be a fit and probably a good pick there and he's arguably a top 5 pick and if not Matthews then there's also Lewan. He should have his pick.
  6. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I think it depends on how much attention JJ pays to Marinelli which could be as little as none. If he expects Melton to move out to DE to make room for Donald then that's what he'll tell Marinelli to do. It doesn't make sense especially if Melton's speed is affected by his injury and it doesn't make sense to move a former Pro Bowl DT to DE either but this is Jerry Jones we're speaking of and he does all kinds of things that make no sense. He's about as arrogant and unpredictable as they come.

    I expect that he'll at least sniff around the possibility with NY and St. Louis. Those are the two I see most likely to do it if anyone would. What may help us is why would NY want to do anything to help a conference rival? And as badly as the Rams want Dix or Pryor, and with us right behind them also needing a Safety, if they let Dallas in to take Donald and we take Dix then they still have Pitt who also needs a Safety. I don't think they'll do it either. We're in a good spot to get him if he's the guy.
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2014
  7. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Me bad, it was the Vikes.

    upload_2014-4-20_19-56-35.png
  8. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Probably a bored writer but Zimmer may see more value than we have heard, They have a lot of other needs to though and drafted Floyd last yr so I would call it a dark horse at best.
  9. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Possible but they also need to invest in a QB, a CB and a WR so they'll have to make a choice about what comes first. Hey if he goes THAT early we never had a shot at all. I'm only focusing on those picks directly in front of us and directly behind us because those are the picks that will have the most influence on what we do. Once upon a time Minny had John Randle and the guys was an unblockable beast.
  10. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    Good points. Hadn't thought about Dallas and NYG being in the same division. And if the Rams want one of the top 2 safeties, they better not trade down too far I suppose. So....you're saying there's a chance? Lol

    I really hope that Donald or Dix is available to us as I see them as easily the two best immediate impact guys who fill major needs. I'm gonna be really bummed if they're both gone before we pick.
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  11. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    I'd feel better if we were picking at 12, but we have 14, and I'm pretty thrilled for that, so whoever is there is there. Just let's get on with it....
  12. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    No kidding, BiH. Aren't we all sick of dissecting this to death? The pre-draft buildup has been milked dry and there's weeks to go yet!

    Anyone want to talk another 5 pages about some scrub CFL long snapper we signed?
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  13. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I know. Pretty boring right now. I wish the draft was tomorrow. I'm dreaming about summer training camp too.
  14. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    It is getting boring because we've beat the same old prospects to death until their corpses are mutilated. LOL This isn't a whole lot better but I took a look at it from a different perspective to get a better handle on who I thought are choices might be before coming up with those four as being the most likely and probably somewhat in that order; Donald, Pryor, Hageman, Fuller.

    The fun part was thinking about what if anything Dallas might do as far as trading up and with who. I'm pretty convinced that Jerry Jones would like to have Donald because he loves pass rushers as much as we do. That's why Marinelli is there. If JJ wants him badly enough he's the one to worry about because he'll try to make one of them an offer they can't refuse.

    Of course if BSB's article has merit it may be a done deal long before it gets to that point. Minny is that one other possibility in the top ten who might jump at him. There are people out there who feel Donald is a top ten guy. It's only his size and the perceived singularity of his position that's limiting him somewhat.
  15. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    Not really, but I'm sure we will, LOL
  16. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Well once we got to posting more about big Canadian balls than the long snapper himself it got interesting and I'm sure made all of our Canadian brothers feel pretty proud. :bah:
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  17. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    I guess when they say "He's a baller" about a CFL player, they mean something completely different. Canadians have their own secret language...."
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2014
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  18. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Ya, they sure do eh? Now pass me an Elsinore and a jelly donut would ya.

    I gotta watch Strange Brew again soon. :rofl2:
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  19. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    This article by "Moon" Mullin goes a step farther than I did and looked at 19 different mock drafts to see who they thought was on consensus pick for the Bears at #14 and I guess the results are no surprise.

    Mock consensus: Pitt DT Aaron Donald to Bears at No. 14
    April 20, 2014, 7:45 pm
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    Mock drafts are well-named – “mock” – because they are non-binding and more often than not, non-accurate. But while weather vanes may not always serve to deliver spot-on weather predictions, they can sometimes provide some idea of which direction winds are blowing. And NFL teams do multiple ones themselves, the operative word being “multiple” because of the myriad scenarios that can play out on draft days.

    So with the draft now less than three weeks away, CSNChicago.com took a spin through 19 different mock drafts from multiple major entities covering the NFL, with an eye toward gauging the current direction of the wind at No. 14. The results:

    9 Aaron Donald, DT, Pitt
    5 Timmy Jernigan, DT, Fla. State
    2 Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
    1 Ha-Sean Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
    1 Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
    1 Justin Gilbert, CB, Okla. State

    Irrespective of specific players, the preponderance of thought is that the Bears will work from the ball outward, meaning a defensive tackle before a defensive back. An elite defensive lineman will typically have a greater impact on a defense than one in the secondary, particularly at safety.

    Like every team, the Bears will go into the draft with a cluster of 3-7 players carrying grades worth their particular draft slot in a particular round. Not all will be there when their turn comes, but the approach gives a gauge for determining how far if at all the Bears could trade down and still get a premier talent in the range they seek.

    Donald projects as the disruptive three-technique central to the single-gap 4-3 scheme that will be the Bears’ base. And from the early takeaway from the mock drafts – some with more insight or connections with teams above or around the Bears – the prevailing sentiment is that the Bears will address the all-important defensive line first, then come back for a defensive back in Round 2.
  20. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Pryor would be a fine pick as well. One of the three and I'm a happy guy.

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