The Urgency Index (Draft Strategy)

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by Bearstuff, May 5, 2014.

  1. Bearstuff

    Bearstuff Yes, in the woods. Staff Member SuperFan

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    NFP article link



    The Urgency Index


    In which order should teams fill their needs? Tony Villiotti

    Almost all NFL teams head into the draft hoping to fill multiple positional needs. In deciding which need to fill in a particular round, a team will generally have one player at a position of need rated higher than a player at a second position of need. But what should a team do when there is no difference between or among the players being considered?
    As a solution to this problem, several years ago I first wrote about a concept called the Urgency Index (the “Index”). The purpose of the Index is to provide guidance in situations when a team has multiple positional needs and is trying to develop a strategy regarding the timing of addressing each need.
    The concept embodied by the Index is that, when in doubt, a team should first draft the position for which there is the largest disparity between the chances of success from drafting now versus drafting later. The Index is the mechanism by which the differences are measured.
    This year’s Index is based on historical information from the 1994 through 2008 drafts and compares the probability of drafting a five-year starter in a Draft Choice Range with the probability of drafting a five-year starter in all later Draft Choice Ranges. The formula for the Index is as follows:
    • The historic probability of drafting a five-year starter at a particular playing position in a Draft Choice Range, divided by
    • The historic probability of drafting a five-year starter at that same playing position in all later Draft Choice Ranges, times
    • 100.
    For example, 61.5% of wide receivers drafted in the first 13 selections have gone on to become five-year starters while 13.5% of wide receivers drafted after that have achieved that status. So the Urgency Index for Wide Receivers during the first 13 selections is 457, calculated as 61.5%/13.5%, or 4.57, multiplied by 100.
    The following table shows the Index for each playing position in the first six Draft Choice Ranges. There is no Index for the last Draft Choice Range (picks 188 and later) because there are no later draft selections to consider.
    [​IMG]
    A higher Index means that history suggests there is more urgency to draft a player at that playing position in that Draft Choice Range. Players with an index of 100 means that players drafted later have had the exact same level of success as those drafted in the current Draft Choice Range. An index of less than 100 indicates that players drafted later have actually had more success than those in the current Draft Choice Range.
    The Index is only used within a Draft Choice Range. That is, it is meaningless to compare the Index for selections 1-13 to the Index for selections 14-24 because the chances of success are not comparable. The sole purpose of the Index is to allow comparisons WITHIN a Draft Choice Range.
    As an example of how the Index would be used, consider a team that needs help at both corner and wide receiver and is drafting in the top 13 selections. In this example there are equally rated players available at both positions. With no other considerations in play, the wide receiver would be selected first because wide receiver has an Index of 457 versus 346 for corner. This means there is a greater chance of drafting a five-year start at corner later in the draft than there is for a wide receiver. According, the Index would suggest that a wide receiver should be selected.
    The more data points there are, the more meaningful the Index. Quarterback has relatively few data points, so the Index approach may be less meaningful there. Plus, a team should never wait to draft a game changer at quarterback and a team would be unlikely to resort to the Index in that situation anyway.
    I recognize that many factors affect the playing position a team drafts and that the Urgency Index is only one of those. A team’s needs and the availability of talent at the position of needs (your basic supply and demand scenario) weigh most heavily in the equation. I believe, though, that there is a role for the Urgency Index in planning a team’s draft strategy, especially as a tie breaker when deciding between equally talented players at different positions.
  2. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Interesting table, thanks for posting. I would have to dig into it a lot deeper as very few safeties have been taken in the first rd the last several drafts so not sure it is equally weighted looking at the 1 thru 13 slot. Additionally it would require all other variables to be equal, which also is unlikely.

    While the board was down though I did dig into draft history and looked at last 6 yrs draft and 3 teams in rd 1 and 2 took a dt and cb. They all took the CB first, I did not dig deeper but was looking at historical value based on Emery' s pre draft presser since he referenced QB's and history after rd 3. Very few Safeties taken in first rd and normally 4 to 5 DE's which I do not see this year so........ I kind of convinced my self history says we will take a CB in RD 1. The above table shows the same. Just wish Thurs would get here.
  3. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    Uuuhhh, my brain hurts.
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  4. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    So I guess Phil should quickly consider a large running back with his first pick.

    This is useful information, but each of these data points consist of people and they different for each draft. Still, data over a long period has relevance. Based on this, we should take a pass on a first round CB and it's a toss up between a S and a DT.

    However, in the second, a S is better to take in the second than a DT. So if your three needs are DT, S and CB... The best strategy according to this is DT, S and CB... in that order.

    I still say LS, and I'm upset it wasn't in the rankings. I'm sure it would have pegged the numbers.
    Last edited: May 5, 2014
  5. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I wonder who the biggest RB guy is in this draft. Maybe Phil can draft us a gargantuan RB at #14.

    [​IMG]
  6. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    I love this guy. he is not ashamed to show his manliness. He also appears to be showing off a good part of his womanliness. Ahh.. forget about it. Now I'm confused as to what I just saw. All I know for sure is I wish I hadn't of seen it. I need to find some soap for my eyes.....
  7. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    If the GM's read this urgency index I figure this guy will be off the board by #14. Phil may have to trade up to land him. If we do get 'im, then Forte might as well clean out his locker. Only fat boys are over 600 rating on the urgency index. Now I question why we ever drafted Forte at all. Unless Trestman thinks he can fatten him up on some Garza donuts.

    [​IMG]
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  8. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    The added bonus with this guy is that if he runs hard enough, he can make a milkshake by the time he hits the end zone.
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  9. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    I'm staying away from donuts after Jackie confessed how the holes are made.
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  10. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Hall of Famer

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    I hear Phil is still going with defense on his first pick. It killed him not to be able to take this guy, but I hear he thinks he can still save Forte. He's going to be bringing Webb back as an eating coach. Forte can be over 400 before TC.
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  11. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Think you got the wrong line. pick 14 (RD 1)
    S (462), CB (438), DT(424)
    RD 2 Pick 51 CB moves ahead of S, and RD 3 DT not good, and rd 4 DT best.
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  12. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Lol me too, If I were Phil I may end up on the IR with a brain injury.
  13. Bearstuff

    Bearstuff Yes, in the woods. Staff Member SuperFan

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    Yep, the highest probability of drafting a 5 year starter, according to this chart, in each of the first 3 picks is:

    Safety
    CB
    ILB

    IF staying all Defense. I'd kinda like to see us go S, CB, RB.
  14. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    Little Chocolate Donuts should be on EVERY training table.

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  15. omc1969

    omc1969 Veteran

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    LOL ....... That was GREAT. I almost forgot that skit.
    :rofl2:
  16. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    I had forgotten it as well until JABF posted the Super Donuts with Roberto Garza. Instantly the image of John Belushi chomping on a chocolate donut and smoking a cig popped into my head with a chuckle to match. Ah, those were the days of REAL SNL skits, the Bad News Bees, Olympia Restaurant (Cheeseborger/Cheep),Samari Baker, Blues Brothers! The only think that came close to those days were Da Bearss skits in the 80's.:drinking61:
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