This article made me a bit nervous regarding O vs. D talent in the draft..

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by strockrocks, Apr 26, 2014.

  1. strockrocks

    strockrocks Veteran

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  2. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    Safety is where I worry that might cause us not to go after a top tier DT. S is thin in the draft and when that is the case, you have to consider that pick before you go with what (arguably) be a more impact player. I still want a penetrating DT (but that is just a stubborn personal preference) -- S might be the better first pick when you consider what you would have to potentially pick from in the second at S.

    Quite honestly, even though we need CB, TE, LB...... If you gave me the top DT and the second best or possibly best S like Pryor, (basically Donald and Pryor/HaHa) I wouldn't care if all the rest of our picks were UDFA. We need top talent at those two spots the most. I have confidence that between the end of FA, FA next year and next years draft, we could fill those in with very good talent. The number of needs start to drop with good picks. Not sure if that would be smart to give up 5 picks to do that, but I'd be ok with it.

    If Emery goes S at 14, I definitely would not complain. The argument for S at 14 has a lot of merit.
  3. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    The safety talent in this draft is really thin. Also, teams value the position more than they used to. The better QB's will gut you if you have a weakness at safety - and we saw this first hand last season. If we think we're grabbing a 3rd round safetey who can help us we're delusional. Ain't happening. It will be another dud like Wright and Conte.

    One other point. People act like Donald is going to make the safety position obsolete or something. Like he'll get to the QB every play. That ain't happening either. Even the best DT's in the NFL (like Suh) can be game-planned for. In the end, you do have to have quality dbacks. There is no free lunch here.
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  4. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    JABF - he doesn't need to get to him every play. The DL AS A WHOLE needs to disrupt his play every play. That is doable if you have a penetrating DT, DE's that are getting after the QB and the rest of the DL that is pushing. The QB has to scramble into a DE or get pushed back with the pocket. If the pressure is strong, he is using half his mind to evade pressure. It works. Even the best guys get rattled. But then when he does get that pass off, you have to be able to cover. Right now, this year we can still do that with our CB corp. Between them and a super DL, you are going to be good most of the time.

    Not what you want -- you want no holes at all, but how do you fill all the holes we have? I'm thrilled to see what has been filled in only two seasons. I'm not sure they would have been filled in 8 seasons with JA and Lovie. We're getting there. I think many of us have short memories. We are looking to see improvement from where we are now. Which is fine. But you have to temper that by understanding that where we are now is SUBSTANTIALLY ahead of where we started the offseason and that 1/3 of Emerys toolbox has been used. The pre draft FA is behind us. Now we have the draft and the post draft FA. I am sure we will see improvements with all of those. We may also see an outright trade, but I doubt it.

    I like where we are given where we were, how much we improved vs the division, and the fact that we still have the draft and FA ahead of us. Any time Emery has an FA period to work with, he is a force to be reckoned with.

    Lets see how we start the season before we bemoan all the holes. I just don't see how they can all be filled (and they probably won't be) but he may be able to marginalize them more. I know the S will be addressed to some extent before the season starts.
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  5. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    I am not sure after rd 2 we can upgrade the safeties we already have in this draft. Rd 3 safeties are no better than MD Jennings, Craig Steltz, and McCray. Not sure if you looked at my other thread on when do you take a safety but 12 safeties are in the top 3 of all 32 team needs. Several of them pick before us in rd 2 and if Pryor and Dix are both gone in rd 1 before we Pick there is better than a 50% chance we will not even have the chance to upgrade the position. I am still not sure I want to go into next year with what we have. It the mocks are correct and Ward and Buchannon go in rd 2 which are reaches the value only gets worse, unless of course Phil has an ACE up his sleeve, small school or a CB to play S. Just looks like you are chasing Safeties later if you take one and not getting the Value you could have later.

    Buy the way I was watching NFL network and Darqueze Dennard was on. He said something to the extent of Michigan had a complex defensive scheme and he often played the role of Safety. That was like music to my ears.

    Anyway here is how Safeties average out on Big Boards. (Food for thought) Joyner was listed as a CB but he has an average rank at 50 and many believe he will be a Safety

    Glad Phil has to figure this one out :10 4 4v[1]:
    upload_2014-4-26_18-25-33.png
  6. dabears70

    dabears70 Veteran

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    Yeah but it will be L.Houston,J.Allen and A.Donald that other teams will have to game plan for not just A.Donald.
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  7. BearDownUnder

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    I'd rather get the pro bowl DT, LB or even offense than the safety who ends up cut from the team in 3 years. If the safety isn't there well it's just not our year. Maybe one comes up in remaining FA or camp cuts who ends up pretty good.

    Best available (whilst factoring needs) is always to smartest approach.
  8. Henry Burris

    Henry Burris Head Coach

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    Random thought: I'm starting to get annoyed by the term "reached", as...if the player still turns out to be good (Long), then it shouldn't be that big a deal.
  9. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    The way I see it is that the better teams won't be affected "every play" by our DL no matter who we have playing there. I agree 100% that a great DL is a wonderful and important piece of the overall defense. It's not the entire defense though. If you have a fatal weakness at any position on defense then that will be exploited by the better QB's - certainly guys like Aaron Rodgers. Detroit had arguably one of the best DL's in the entire NFL last year. Not just Suh, but the entire DL had stellar talent. Yet their defense gave up 30 or more points in 4 games, and 20-27 points in 7 more games. This with a DL that is every team's dream. Seattle won a Super Bowl with a complete defense. They had solid talent behind that DL too.

    This is what I'd like to see in Chicago.

    If the Bears draft Donald in the 1st, that's fine. I'm just saying that's not going to negate the need for a serious upgrade at safety. I do get tired of people talking like a solid DL will make crappy players "okay" to have behind that DL. It's not going to do that. But I "get it" that folks believe we draft Donald and it's all good. Problem solved.
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  10. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    Well no one told the 85 Bears that and they went out and affected "every play" anyway.
    I think you are stretching what I'm saying by saying that my position is that Donald will fix the problems. That's not what I'm saying at all. First, I don;t know if Donald is going to have the impact that many of us hope he will. That is ALWAYS a risk. Next is that even if he does, HOW MUCH impact will that DL have? Will it be average, or will it actually be able to intimidate the opposing teams?

    I do think that with an excellent DL we can get into the post season. Then I think we work on the backfield which also has to be strong to get to the SB.

    Or you can fix the backfield now, but you still don't know how much pressure the DL will provide. Especially without a Donald type. We'll theoretically only have one good S with a DL that migh be giving the QB more time than we'd like. Then we get picked aprt that way (maybe -- we still have stout CBs). So pick your poison. It all has to be fixed. You just have to decide the biggest incremental return RIGHT NOW.

    And since we have not seen the new DL in action, my opinion is finish that up. If we had one season of play with them and I saw that they were stout and dominating in most situations (and that could be the case - we just don't know), then I would be thinking the biggest difference maker right now would be a S.

    Keep in mind that as we all present our thoughts and positions, none of us actually know which is the right position. We all do our best analysis and filter that through own own personal priorities and come up with what we think is the best course. Seems like you are down on people that think that Donald with be the last piece. Personally, I haven't seen anyone take that position JABF, but even if they had, so what?

    One person's opinion that is different (and probably wrong) really that big a deal? It's not like any of what we think is going to happen just because we think it should.

    And I hope you take this in the spirit it was meant JABF. I'm not trying to be disrespectful in any way.
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  11. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Thats what I like about this board, different perspectives to filter through. Good arguements for both DT and S. Unfortunately there is no magic ball to give the correct answer and when we are done there is no guarantee even Emery will get it right as something like 25 to 30% of draft choices actually pan out.

    My big concern is if we do not get a Safety in first couple of rounds that we do not waste a better pick later in the draft on a Safety because we need one. I would rather go with what we have and upgrade another position than take a Safety who will never contribute.

    I have posted several times with my concerns on Donald though and not rehashing it all but even if he can apply pressure he may be a liability against the run. Not saying he will or will not be but DT and S both needs and Pryor, Dix, Donald all pretty equally rated. We may learn some things about Emerys philosophies early in this draft.
  12. dachuckster

    dachuckster Veteran SuperFan

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    Unfortunately I think it will take 2 or 3 more drafts before we are out of the hole that JA and Lovie left us in. Phil has done a good job with FA on both sides of the ball so far. But we will need to get 3 or 4 solid contributers (minimum) out of each draft class for the next few years as well as savvy FA signings just to stay even with everyone else or maybe get a bit ahead.

    We will not solve the defense with this year's draft and FA moves. We can make it a lot better, but we will have weak points that we will not be able to totally address.

    The more I look at our situation with regards to the lack of good drafting and the lack of good player development in the past, the more pissed I get.

    Apologies for the rant but I have been doing a slow burn about this for a few years and I just get sick thinking about it.
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  13. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    Unfortunately, I think you are right.
  14. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    A bears draft need poll on PFT came in with the secondary (no distinction between S and CB) as the primary need, DT as the second and LB a distant third. For whatever it's worth (not much unless all those votes were Emery's) that is the consensus. Thought it was worth sharing.
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  15. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Now and then I suggest everyone check out other bear boards. I do not post on them but once a week or so I will look at other boards and secondary seems to be much bigger concern on most of them. Several event want Hagemann over Donald. Good to get a different point of view now and then
  16. TarheelBear

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    As long we get player of need to provide more competition I am happy however with that being said we can't afford to wiff on first and second round pick either and trust Phil has plan. I am no draft guru and have suffered many poor choices . I like to think Phil has better handle on things being his 3rd draft and his second with his guy helping evaluate talent not JA left overs. doesn't even bother me that he picks outside the realm of what others think. But he need atleast 2 solid player out of this draft and depth guy as well.

    I agree with DaChuckster that it may take another draft and Fa to really fix all issues, only so much we can do this year. I think Phil did good job on paper addressing area's of concern. nobody expected a drop off in D production like Bears had last year. I have to believe it will be better this coming season. Bring on the draft and Bear Down Phil
  17. Grizzblue

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    Excellent Chart BSB. So by the looks of it the best true value at safety (and no doubt we have to take one) would be in the first. If we are using the reach grade ala draftek then Dix would be a -1 and Pryor a -8.

    After that just assuming Ward or Buchannon are there they would be a -10 and -35 respectively.

    This is why my new clearcut favorite is Dix or Pryor at 14, and I know this is blasphemy to say but even though it completely contradicts my fundamental ideals on football..........I would take one of them over Donald if both were there. I'm afraid that if we pass on either of them who will be there, we may get royally screwed and/or be forced into a huge reach. I personally don't think either will make it to 51, so then we prolly can't justify taking a 4th round grade in the 2nd round. Fast forward to the third and we likely reach on a guy like Baily, Loston, or Reynolds who carry 4th-5th round grades. Those guys frankly are unlikely to provide anything day one, sure they could shock us because the draft is not an exact science and all the scouting in the world doesn't tell how a player will react/grow in the pros nor can it highlight all the hundreds of factors that go into a players college tape.
  18. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I can see all of your points, and I guess the bottom-line is that I have to accept reality - we really can't fix everything on defense this year. Not completely anyway. In the end, I suspect Emery will do well on draft day no matter who he drafts with that first pick & I'll be fine no matter what position get's that first rounder. And maybe he'll still add a key player after the draft too (not a top-tier guy, but somebody who will help us fill any gaps left after the draft). Next year Emery can finish the defense makeover. Regarding your post, I never take offense at anything you post. I enjoy (very much) reading what you post here.
  19. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    I read (not post) at WCG a lot. Of course opinions are varied but the most common viewpoint is that Donald needs to be the 14 pick if available. And there's a lot of concern there that Pryor is overrated and will be Brandon Meriweather ver 2 as a hard hitter who draws a lot of PF calls and doesn't wrap up tackle well.
  20. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    I've been on the "Dix or Donald at 14" bandwagon for quite a while now. Neither of them may make it to us. We will never know what Phil's list of 6 is but if we could see it I'd be willing to wager a lot of cash that both those guys are on it.

    From what I've been reading, Buchannon is rising and could possibly even sneak into the late 1st. But a solid early-day2 pick now. He was not all that long ago thought of as a 3rd-4th rounder. I've been hoping for a while the Bears could get him if they didn't go S at 14. Seems like a very solid and underrated player who's big, ran a 4.49, has a rep for hitting hard, and has ballhawk skills (more picks than Ha-Ha and Calvin combined). Was a 3 year starter--no major injuries, no missed games--and played against high level competition in the PAC conference.

    Donald - Buchannon would be a helluva 1-2 draft IMHO. Even if Phil has to move up a little in the 2nd to get him.
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