Three Post 1st Round Safeties....................

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by soulman, Mar 18, 2014.

  1. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    If you draft a CB where is he gonna start? Tillman is being paid to be a starter and so is Jennings. They wouldn't sit either of them to play a rookie. The best you'd see out of Gilbert is as a return man and an understudy to Peanut getting ready to take over next year. I think the kid has real talent but he's just not an immediate need in one. A Safety might be a better but IMHO neither will have the impact of a great pass rusher. The better the rush the less talent you need in the defensive backfield. I wouldn't be completely shocked if they did take a Safety but I would still take a pass rusher over one if I could get a kid with some ability to challenge Conte later in the draft. You won't get a pass rushing penetrating DT like Donald later in the draft. Some would have him ranked as a top five guy if he was 10lb heavier and inch taller. If he's there he should be the BPA.

    I'd be willing to bet Gilbert won't make it that far and DaQuan Jones is no 3 tech. He's a 320lb run stuffer you'd use as a NT. I'd be disappointed if they took him. Read his scouting report and numbers from the Combine. He's slower than molasses in January, full second under Donalds time, not as strong, 10 less reps in the bench, and has few if any pass rush potential other than as a bull rusher. He's Nix's size without Nix's talent and I think even the 2nd round may be to high for him unless somebody was desperate for a NT. I'm not saying he's a bad ball player but he doesn't have what you'd look for in a 4-3 DT. At 320 pounds he's a NT and if he drops 15-20lbs he's probably a 5 tech DE in a 3-4. I think Adam Hoge is off base here. Teams are gonna throw up a lot of smoke screens now and a lot of those will come from local media guys like Hoge. It's best to keep the other guys guessing now. Most of the draftniks say Donald so this adds some doubt.

    DaQuan Jones
    DT Penn St.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Grade
    5.65?
    • 5.35 SEC
      Top Performer
    • 25 REPS
      Top Performer
    • 27.5 INCH
      Top Performer
    • 101.0 INCH
      Top Performer
    • 7.73 SEC
      Top Performer
    • 4.78 SEC
      Top Performer
    • 6'4" Height
    • 33 1/2" Arm Length
    • 322LBS. Weight
    • 9 5/8" Hands
    Overview
    2013: First-team All-Big Ten selection after starting in all 12 games. Led team with 11.5 tackles for loss. 2012: Started first 11 games. 2011: Played in all 12 games. 2010: Did not play in first four game to preserve possible redshirt. Played defensive tackle and defensive end.
    Analysis
    Strengths
    Big body -- looks the part. Fires off the snap and engages quickly. Is difficult to displace and has a strong upper body. Able to control blocks and locate the ball. Plays with a load in his hands -- presses blockers, extends and discards. Generates a strong bull rush and collapses the pocket. Is athletic and redirects well for a big man. Flashes disruptive ability and dominates at times, creating production for teammates. Scheme versatile. Has upside. Team captain.
    Weaknesses
    Takes some plays off and occasionally loafs on plays away from him. Could stand to develop counters and pass-rush moves. Does not threaten the edges. Does not accelerate off blocks and closing burst is just average. Can do a better job protecting his legs. Weight and conditioning have fluctuated.
    Bottom Line
    Big, strong-bodied interior force who shed weight and improved his stamina as a senior, displaying NFL-caliber physicality in the trenches. Has been inconsistent in the past, but if the light has come on, Jones' combination of size, power and movement enables him to play as a 4-3 one-technique or 3-4 five-technique.
  2. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I'd much rather see this than taking Gilbert if indeed Quarles could be gotten with the #51 pick but not the TE in three. In previous posts you've lobbied hard to Safety help yet here you pass on one until the 5th round. Why would you take a TE and another DT before a Safety? And why two DTs when we have a slot for one?
  3. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    If we do not take a safety early I do not believe they would be any better than we have. Thus waiting til next yr or going early seems to be the option. Early on I like fixing the qb of the defense and Mosley is the best MLB. I like a strong 3 tech but leaning to MOSLEY
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  4. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    ooops HIT The wrong button. I was saying.


    Taking Mosley could be another Urlacher and fix the position for yrs. If I miss on Quarles I have Sutton later who is a solid 3 tech and I have Ratliff who is getting starter money and even Allen calls him a Beast. You could move Ratliff to NT which he is good at as well but I have Peae. Although I love DT in RD 1 I see more value in Mosley and think he will beat out DJ sometime in the season and I have a solid back up either way. Quarles or Sutton fit the 3 tech rotation and could prove to be very good and have a little more size than Donald.

    TE in rd 3 because I like Niklas and he is still somewhat green. I like the option of a 2 TE set and he is already a great blocker. Good coaching and he is projected as skies the limit.

    Fill out the draft with next yr needs and swing tackle. Thats how I see the most value. JMHO
  5. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    OK let's take 'em one at a time. Most scouts see Mosley as an OLB in a 4-3 and only a ILB in a 3-4. I didn't say it they did. Look at Borland later on as a MLB. I think Ratliff is the guy to play NT because that's where he did most of his playing in Dallas. He'll need some breather so he fit well with Paea. So far that leaves Collin's whose still rehabbing at 3 tech and he's good but nothing special. If we miss or pass on Donald I might be more tempted to wait on Sutton (and take the Safety in two) because he's the one most like Donald except for one thing. He doesn't have his motor. The kid ran hot and cold a lot at AZ. which what dropped him while Donald shot up. I think in round 3 or 4 he's a good find but I have some concerns about his effort.

    I can't see the value of taking a TE in three and we already have one green TE were trying to get better at catching the ball and understanding the game. They're gonna give Onobun a shot at sticking this year. I'm sure of that. The other reason I have is that we have three excellent receivers now and great pass catching RB. In addition they're working hard to bring Wilson along as a slot guy and as far as blocking in a two TE set Rosario was brought back because he blocked well last year. They could take a TE but with the needs on defense I think three is way to high.

    But I still don't know why you completely ignore a FS, and a young CB who may also be a FS prospect (that might kill two birds with one stone) then draft two DTs when we only really have a slot for one (unless Collins is trashed and I don't think he'd have signed him is he was) and then take an offensive player in three. In all likelihood Mosley won't start, one DT would probably start in the rotation, and we still have no rookie FS to compete with Conte.

    I see where you're going with this and frankly I'd rather have Mosley than a Safety but I could accept that too. It's just that I keep coming back to Donald because he's the perfect fit at DT. Some guys believe that if went 6'2" and 295-300lbs and could play like he does that he'd be a top five pick. I gotta say that I believe at #14 (if he lasts) he's one of the bigger steals of round one. I'd surely take him over Sutton in a heartbeat and I think every other team would too.
  6. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Yeah, if it fell like this I'd be completely happy. Problem is I see a few wishful thinkings and players that won't sniff that late imo.

    Jimmy Ward-3rd? not likely
    Christian Jones in the 5th? Possibly but not likely
    Bryan Stork in the 6th? I doubt that too.

    If it happened though I may start ordering drinks by the bottle.
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  7. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Most reports I see on Mosley is he can play either outside or inside. He is that good.

    upload_2014-4-1_20-10-25.png

    TE, I am scared if M Bennett goes down and like having a 2 TE set. If Onobun can beat out Niklas I would feel much better. Niklas is a strong blocker and decent hands but still raw

    upload_2014-4-1_20-19-20.png

    I see MLB and DT more critical than Safety much as you have pointed out. Possibly Ward in RD 2 but if we go Mosley in RD 1, DT makes more sense in rd 2 unless Quarles gone and Ward avail. My preference would be DT and Quarles. The other safeties in the draft not much different than Conte, Mundy, and others we already have so its not an improvement so I am willing to wait a year or see who gets cut later. I do not believe Dixon or Buchanon in 3 are more important than TE who is insurance against Bennett getting hurt and adds another Offensive set and playlist out of the 2 TE set, much like NE did before Hernandez got in trouble. I see Value in this. specifically against GB and 34 defense.

    I can see the Bears taking Donald in RD 1 but Skov is a bigger drop from Mosley than Quarles is from Donald in my opion. Donald and Mosley both first rd picks and Mosley rated a little higher at 6.9 vs 6.8 and I believe Skov would be a short term option and never look like the MLB's Bear fans have been accustomed to. If a knock your socks off middle linebacker falls to us next yr Mosley can move outside. If we transition to 34 down the road Mosley is there. Plus he is QB of Defense which he is doing in college for many yrs now. Guess I see MLB weaker than the DLIne and see the most Value with Mosley and getting Quarles or Sutton or even Easley. Several 3 tech DT's only one Mosley.

    As Far as 2 DT's. You may be right, but if they can play a 5 tech and a 3 tech like Sutton we may carry one less DE. Obviously the big 3 DE's (Allan, Houston, and Young) will be on the team. Izzy pretty safe, Bass and Washington, Sutton and the rest of them, Let em fight it out Sutton can play all positions so may be value in the flexible scheme coming.

    I like Aikens alot later in the draft and Piere Desir at CB to get ready for next yr. Both could benefit from learning for a yr a be ready for next yr. If they can get into the S battle better yet.

    Thats How I am thinking with a month or so to go. May still change my mind and logic but that is my opinion and logic for now.
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  8. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Let me go one step farther with this and then stop because I committed to not being quite so anal.....lytical. LOL I want to explain my thinking. It's mostly based on reading Emery's statements and moves in FA. Now the moves are easy enough to recognize it what he says that we can never count on. How much is truth and how much is diversion? I'm also gonna base this on the thinking that Gilbert and Clinton-Dix are both gone at #14 since most have them off the board by then.

    So based on need let's say Emery has a DT-Donald, a LB-Mosley, and a Safety-Pryor on his board and all would rate about the same. Any one of them is a potential fit somewhere he has a need and all three may start before the year is out. So which way does he go?

    Let's start with Mosley because to me he'd be a surprise based on talking to LB last year, moving McClellin to LB and signing DWill and Senn. I suppose we could try anyone of the three (Shea, Bostic and Mosley) at MLB in camp and see if any of them show a knack for it. But......Emery has already said that he feels Bostic would be best at WLB (just can't put him there yet) and that he wants to find ways to keep McClellin on the field all the time. Make him a three down player which is probably best served at either SLB or MLB and move him around to rush. So he may see snaps anywhere and Bostic may share some with him at SLB for now. I'm discounting Greene as any more than a STeams guy for now. If the scouts are mostly correct and Mosley's best fit in a 4-3 is also a WLB then he needs another spot for Bostic. I don't think he can play the MLB spot which leaves McClellin but as a rusher he'll probably do best at SLB. So I'm lost trying to find the right fit for a guy whose a very good LB in this scenario. Maybe Phil knows and I don't.

    Safety is a lot simpler. We need one worse than we do a LB at this moment. Pryor's best position in the pros is probably at SS and Emery already brought Mundy in to start. If Mundy isn't a real good prospect for FS would he have done that if his plan was to fill that need in the draft? That would be uncharacteristic of how he usually works. So to take Pryor if he still wants a DT he has to value him higher which to me means he can see him challenging Conte at FS or the Bears are gonna play a lot of Cover-2 where the Safeties are basically interchangeable, or three he thinks Mundy can play back at FS. I don't think he signed him to sit but I do believe Pryor could take Conte's job from him. So even though I like Mosley better I can't figure out what to do with him as well as I can Pryor so I think Pryor would be the guy he'd take over him.

    Now we get to DT and this is even simpler. Donald is not only the best DT on the board for his needs he may even be the BPA of the three. Nobody can argue with his productivity or his motor and desire and he's already proven the physically he has what he needs to play 3 tech. He could pass on Donald for Pryor but I don't he'd do it for Mosley. He has already committed two high draft picks to LB spots and unless he's really convinced Mosley is the next great Bears MLB he has no place to start him. DWill experience should be enough to win out in that battle. He has a few more options later to look at for a MLB who aren't anywhere near the athlete Mosley is but may actually be better prospect for MLB. He also said when he was still interested in bringing Melton back just how important a 3 tech DT is to that defense and he really doesn't have one who could be that dominating penetrator and rusher and he needs a guy like that. If he plays Ratliff there then he still needs another DT or NT. Collins can play there but he's not the "beast" as Allen calls him that Ratliff is and there is no other DT in this draft that is as highly thought of as Donald is far as a 1st round pick and he's sitting there for the taking.

    That's it and the last I'll write about it length. It's all based on the remaining needs and whatever signals I can pick up on that Emery has given off either verbally or with his signings. So for me it's probably gonna be either Pryor or Donald (with an edge to Donald) and Mosley as the dark horse. Unless something dramatic happens between now and then this is my belief of how it will go, provided both Gilbert and Dix are gone.
  9. BelieveInMonsters

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    Soulman--

    At his age, Peanut is no guarantee to come back as good as his regular self. Hell, he may not even make it through the entire year injury free in 2014. A CB drafted could realistically see significant playing time next year.

    We are extremely thin at CB and Safety. If we want to legimately contend next year, we can't possibly go into the year with MD Jennings or Conte as one of our starting Safeties and without a solid backup for an old injured Peanut Tillman. We need impact starters at either of those positions not 2nd round and later projects.

    The defensive line is stocked pretty well with free agency. Ratliff, Collins, Idonije and Houston can play DT. We can handle a later round draft project at DT more than we can in the secondary right now.
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2014
  10. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Good pnts Soul, we just see if different. Be interesting to see what happens.
  11. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    I agree completely Grizz, which is why I would be crapless. I like Adam Hoge, and I enjoy his Mocks, but this one is a bit of a pipe dream. That being said, there are always guys that drop, but I can't see the Bears being the benefactor of all of them. As to many of the other points in this thread...all very good. I can't say I would draft like Hoge did, but if I were drafting with the benefit of hindsight to know who would still be there in each round, I could go this way. :smilebig:
  12. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    OK, sound reasoning there although I'm still unsure of Mosley at MLB in a 4-3 as opposed to an ILB in a 3-4. That's how played at Bama right? That's really the question Emery and his scouts need to determine. Can the kid play like a true 4-3 MLB or not. I believe he made a mistake last year when he drafted Bostic with thought in mind so I think he'll be more judgmental this time.
  13. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Coordinator

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    I like Mosely, and we definitely need to get back to a productive LB corp. I'd still like to see him go DT, but Moseley would work for me too.
  14. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Let me tackle just the two I highlighted so I can narrow in on just that.

    1) We also don't know that he won't be just as good either and no one can predict an injury. Up 'til last year he'd missed just three games in his career and I no longer buy into the argument that older players get injured more often. With offseason conditioning these guys do now they're in better shape than most rookies.

    It's no better than 50/50 Peanut will play another year so I'm pretty certain a CB drafted now would see playing time as a starter next year if he had the goods to do it. You don't spend high draft picks on guys just to play STeams. But to me that's the problem. Next year isn't now and teams rarely if ever spend a high 1st round pick on a player who they don't feel will contribute immediately. It's very rare and even more so with a CB who ordinarily can start immediately. Peanut was a 2nd round pick and he started as a rookie.

    We aren't as bad off depth wise at CB as it may seem yet I still feel in round two or three we should take a CB. No lower. There are guys there who if drafted should be decent backup depth now and able to start next year if called on to do so. We also have Hayden back who can also play CB in addition to NB, Frey who can also play either, and C.J. Wilson off the PS who looked pretty good last preseason and whose spent a year already learning the game, Derrick Martin an 8 year vet and we have McManis who may be a last choice but who also plays CB and has decent size. So while there may not be frontline starting depth it's good enough to have let Bowman go and replace him in the draft.

    2) I believe we should correct the thinking that any one of those four is a true 3 tech DT. The key word there is "can". Yes they can but for all but Collins that isn't their natural position and if you want the best out of a player it's not a good idea to play them out of position. He commented on that earlier speaking about McClellin and Hardin and in reality I think we're gonna find that Bostic isn't a MLB either.

    Ratliff is a former four or five time Pro Bowl NT who could play some snaps at DT and did last year but it's not his strength. Houston is a DE and he was signed to play DE. He doesn't want to play inside regularly although he may move inside at times when we use four DEs on the line to rush as we did in 2012 when we had a full complement of DLinemen. Izzy , if he makes the team, is a LDE who can play some snaps at DT but he's not a full time DT either. Collins is the only guys who IMHO is more of a 3 tech DT than he is NT but he has played NT at times when Paea needed a break.

    What's important to emphasize is that there is a big difference between the gap responsibilities of a Shade NT and a 3 tech DT in a 4-3 front and also a big difference in the type of player you want at each position. Emery has been smart to create a line with enough versatility that he can use any of them to cover that DT spot but none of them is a true DT in a 4-3 one gap defense like we play. That was Melton's role and in 2012 he made the Pro Bowl than was lost last year when he injured his knee. Emery made a point of saying just how important that position is in that defense and that he'd like to have Melton back but not for what Dallas was willing to pay him. So he's left with a hole that needs filling because it's every bit as important as RDE is to the pass rush. The best pass rushing tackle in this draft and probably in the last few is probably gonna be there for the taking and he will play in that rotation and contribute this year.

    So this is why I believe he ranks higher on the needs list now than a CB. I really don't mean to beat this to death an if I'm saying things you already know I apologize but it's really important that people realize the difference between those two DT positions and the type of player you want for each. It's like drafting a Safety who doesn't have the speed for CB but playing him there. Or trying to make an OT out of a guy whose built to play OG. It's the same thing here. In a one gap 4-3 a NT is not the same position as a DT and they really aren't as interchangeable personnel wise as some think.
  15. BelieveInMonsters

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    Soulman--

    I think we need to accept the fact that Charles Tillman is at the end of the road. In addition to the injury that ended his season, he was in and out of several games last year with leg issues. It is completely within the realm of possibilities that he is unable to play an entire season in 2014. At this point, to expect him to play the entire year is unwise and short sighted.

    You're right when you say that we have options at CB. But the options that we do have are far worse than the ones at DT at the moment.

    In addition to Ratliff, Collins, Idonije, and Houston who can all play DT, we also have Paea as well. It would be unwise to continue to load up the defensive line in the first round with the secondary in such dire need of a player who can possibly step in right away at Safety or Cornerback.

    I agree with your points about Houston. No one is expecting him to be a full time 3 tech. The Bears are expected to be changing fronts throughout a game and he will be a part of the regular rotation at 3 tech though. It remains to be seen how much the defense is going to rotate throughout the course of a game. If it is constant, then having a true 3-tech (which we already have Collins and Paea to play) may be a moot point.

    If I'm going with a project player in the 2nd round or later it's going to be at DT rather than Secondary. We are stronger at DT than we are in the Secondary and it would be short sighted to draft a player who needs Alot more "seasoning" for a unit that is already so thin.

    The defensive line would still be a really strong unit with a DT drafted in the 2nd round or later.
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2014
  16. BelieveInMonsters

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    I also need to go on the record as saying that while I'd prefer that the Bears draft Calvin Pryor or Justin Gilbert with the #14 pick, I trust Emery and the Bears and I'd be perfectly happy if we drafted Aaron Donald or anyone else.

    Alot of mock drafts have us taking Donald at #14 which is OK. But I will say that most of the time these mock draft are dead wrong.
  17. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Yep Soul is why I am, and remain against taking Mosley in the 1st. By doing this, we are very likely putting our 2nd round pick last year in a position to be behind a 1st round pick on the depth chart. It's a waste of a young LB and high pick from last year because I think Mosley stands no better chance at MLB then Bostic does. Now I could be wrong, but we can't assume because some scouting reports say he can be a 4-3 MLB that he will. Bostic was thought to be a 4-3 MLB but there were some of the same notes on him that he may be better suited to play WIll in a 4-3. I would just much rather see Borland or Skov. We can wait a pick and get a guy who could be a true Mike.
  18. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    And they may well be. I read one last night that had Dix dropping to us. I don't buy it nor do I buy their prediction of NY taking Donald to replace Linval Joseph who was a 6'4" 325 NT. Nix would be better at that than a 6'1" 285lb guy like Donald.

    If Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was there I'd have to think long and hard between him and Donald but if all that's left is Donald, Fuller, and Mosley I gotta go with Donald. He fills a huge need on the DL that despite what you posted is not met by anyone else on that roster. There is a huge difference between "can play" and built to play when it comes to a 3 tech DT. As were Tommie Harris and Melton in the past. Donald is a pure penetrating 3 tech DT and one of the best to come along in the past five years. Out of the three mentioned he's also left as the BPA at #14. This kid wouldn't make it out of the top ten if he was 6'3" and 295lbs like Melton and Harris.

    There is no 2nd round DT whose Donald's equal based on all we are able to measure as amateurs. Not even one. But there are CB and FS who can play in a zone coverage scheme like the Bears use that doesn't require man coverage much. I like Mosley but I also like a couple of other pure MLB prospects later like Borland if he lasts until three. I also don't agree that we have less depth at CB than in the DLine. Two players are in contract years and Ratliff, while signed for two, is also gonna be 33 years old and is not a sack artist any longer. Also you all need to get it out of your heads that Houston will spend any great amount of time at DT. That was never the reason he was signed.

    Emery will do what Emery will do but my logic leads me to Donald over the other two and Pryor. If we take a FS I think it has to be Dix.
  19. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I'm just gonna simplify this and move one. If he's on the board and Dix isn't then my pick in one will remain Aaron Donald for now. If Dix is there I'd probably still lean toward Donald because he'd be a higher impact player in THIS defense.

    Jimmie Ward is my FS pick in round two or the best CB or MLB if Ward is gone. Round three is used to fill what we can't do in two and the same with round four. So much in three and four is based on whose left that this may change is time goes on but not the first two rounds. Those guys should be very high on our board. Even another DT is possible in four or five. We may lose as many as three next year.
  20. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    Great points soul.
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