Trade back or stand pat.

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by riczaj01, Jan 17, 2014.

  1. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Okay so there is some discussion about if the Bears should just take the BPA at 14 or trade back; to really understand the pro's and cons lets look at the Jimmy Johnson Chart and an updated chart on how teams look at trading. The updated one was before the new CBA so while the JJ one was outdated and no team seemed to really use it more then a loose guide, the new one might also be outdated b/c teams are now far more willing to move up, specifically into the top 10 b/c of the rookie wage scale.

    JJ's:
    http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
    Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7
    1 3,000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 27 193 14.2
    2 2,600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 26.6 194 13.8
    3 2,200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4
    4 1,800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13
    5 1,700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6
    6 1,600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2
    7 1,500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8
    8 1,400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4
    9 1,350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11
    10 1,300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6
    11 1,250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2
    12 1,200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8
    13 1,150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4
    14 1,100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9
    15 1,050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6
    16 1,000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2
    17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8
    18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4
    19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7
    20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6
    21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2
    22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8
    23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4
    24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5
    25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6
    26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2
    27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8
    28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4
    29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3
    30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6
    31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3
    32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2


    updated:
    http://www.nfldraft101.com/draft/articles/407/Updating_the_NFL_Draft_Trade_Value_Chart.jsp

    Pick Round 1 Pick Round 2 Pick Round 3 Pick Round 4 Pick Round 5 Pick Round 6 Pick Round 7
    1 2400 33 630 65 275 97 111 129 44.7 161 26.5 193 14.1
    2 2175 34 580 66 270 98 107 130 43.8 162 26.1 194 13.8
    3 2000 35 570 67 265 99 104 131 43.0 163 25.7 195 13.5
    4 1850 36 560 68 260 100 101 132 42.2 164 25.3 196 13.2
    5 1700 37 550 69 255 101 98 133 41.4 165 24.9 197 12.9
    6 1575 38 540 70 250 102 96 134 40.6 166 24.5 198 12.6
    7 1450 39 530 71 245 103 94 135 39.8 167 24.1 199 12.3
    8 1350 40 520 72 240 104 92 136 39.1 168 23.7 200 12
    9 1250 41 510 73 235 105 90 137 38.4 169 23.3 201 11.7
    10 1200 42 500 74 230 106 88 138 37.8 170 23 202 11.4
    11 1150 43 490 75 225 107 86 139 37.3 171 22.5 203 11.1
    12 1100 44 480 76 220 108 84 140 36.8 172 22.1 204 10.8
    13 1050 45 470 77 215 109 82 141 36.3 173 21.7 205 10.5
    14 1000 46 460 78 210 110 80 142 35.8 174 21.3 206 10.2
    15 975 47 450 79 205 111 78 143 35.3 175 20.9 207 9.9
    16 950 48 440 80 200 112 76 144 34.9 176 20.5 208 9.6
    17 925 49 430 81 195 113 74 145 34.5 177 20.1 209 9.3
    18 900 50 420 82 190 114 72 146 34.1 178 19.7 210 9
    19 875 51 410 83 185 115 70 147 33.7 179 19.3 211 8.7
    20 850 52 400 84 180 116 68 148 33.3 180 18.9 212 8.4
    21 825 53 390 85 175 117 66 149 32.9 181 18.6 213 8.1
    22 800 54 380 86 170 118 64 150 32.5 182 18.3 214 7.8
    23 780 55 370 87 165 119 62 151 32.1 183 18 215 7.5
    24 760 56 360 88 160 120 60 152 31.7 184 17.7 216 7.2
    25 740 57 350 89 155 121 58 153 31.3 185 17.4 217 6.9
    26 720 58 340 90 150 122 56.5 154 30.9 186 17.1 218 6.6
    27 700 59 330 91 145 123 55 155 30.5 187 16.8 219 6.3
    28 680 60 320 92 140 124 53.5 156 30.1 188 16.5 220 6
    29 660 61 310 93 135 125 52 157 29.7 189 16.2 221 5.7
    30 640 62 300 94 130 126 50.5 158 29.3 190 15.9 222 5.4
    31 620 63 290 95 125 127 49 159 28.9 191 15.6 223 5.1
    32 600 64 280 96 120 128 47.5 160 28.5 192 15.3 224 4.8
  2. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Either way, moving back, say 4 spots to 18 gets the Bears a late 2nd, 2 late 3rds or a mid 3rd and a 4th.

    Right now the difference of player between 14 and 18 is small, both are going to get you a starting D player in the front 7, all of which are needs, but it also adds a 2nd 2nd or a couple 3rd's/4th. That extra 3rd/4th is going to help get you the potential starters you need in the DB, and allows the team to get some O talent in the back of the draft.
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  3. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I'm just hoping that since Emery now has an upgraded scouting department & is in his 3rd draft here in Chicago, that he will be a solid judge of D talent. I give him a pass for Shea. But now it's critically important to have him judge talent well. I think this is even more important than the draft # where you pick. Seriously.
  4. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    The value of a pick trade is always based on supply and demand, just like anything else. If the depth of this draft is as good as some are saying, then other team are going to want to do the same thing, thus the Supply is larger. Furthermore, given our spot, a trade will likely depend on a team wanting to leapfrog someone else to get to a specific target. Again, if depth is as good as they say, this will be limited to a team that simply fall sin love with a specific guy, say a QB that could potentially drop. Given the draft depth, this makes me thing that demand will be limited. A large supply of something combined with a limited demand means low value.

    Obviously I have no idea how this will turn out; no one does, but it's shaping up to suggest a move may not have the value as represented on either chart, and thus, may not be worth it. I'm all for dropping down to gain another pick, but I'm not going to risk losing out on a guy we really like to gain another 4th rounder.

    It's simply too early to tell. We haven't had any Free Agency yet, no combine, hell we haven't even seen the all star games yet.
  5. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    We talk about this every year. And pretty much every year there's more teams wanting to trade down than there are teams with the desire/ability to trade up. The rookie wage scale has made MORE picks (especially in rounds 2-4) more valuable than HIGHER picks for cap reasons. Trading down could easily make a ton of sense for the Bears depending in how it shakes out but unfortunately the same could be said for lots of other teams. Only teams who are already pretty stacked AND have extra picks are likely candidates to be trade-up partners.

    I'd love to see it happen for us but I suspect it won't, not early on anyway. If the opportunity presents at 14, I would happy to get an IMPACT player on D. We have lost that in Urlacher, Peppers, and maybe Tillman too. And Briggs is nearing the end. While I'd love to net a couple extra mid-round picks, this is as high as we have been in a while in round 1 and if there's a cant pass up player there, I'd say take him.
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  6. Blue Horse-shoe

    Blue Horse-shoe Veteran

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    I HATE the trading down BS . What has it ever really gotten us ? Draft the BPA on D and go from there every other round . F special teamers . I want them to BUILD with everydown players . That's the only way u eventually wind up in the SB .
  7. latorreedgar

    latorreedgar Rookie

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    ßearz ßuckz:
    Trading back with a team like the Browns would be great
    Getting the browns 1st (26th pick) and the 2nd (4th pick) for the Bears 1st would be awesome
    If I had those picks I would draft like this
    26th. Stephon Tuitt DE/DT
    36th pick Loucheiz Purifoy CB
    51th pick Aaron Donald DT
    That would be 3 very very solid players
    Just because you draft early doesn't guarantee an every down player
  8. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    You are aware that the Pat's have made a habit of constantly trading back, even to the point of having picks in the next draft right?

    You are also aware that last year the Bears traded down in the 5th and got Mills and Marquise Wilson right? Traded their 5th for a later 5th and a 7th(last year they only had 6 picks), so trading down netted them what appears to be their future Slot WR.

    The draft is a crapshoot, it's less of one at the start of the draft, but it's a crapshoot all the same,having a guy at 14 or having a guy at 20 or at 31 you can still get a high level player or a bust....think about this, 14 is where the team drafted Chris Williams(suck), 19 netted the Bears Shea/Long(mixed bag), but Greg Olsen(really solid player) was drafted 31. You can get talent anywhere, but the more picks you have the more shots you have at landing guys that can play for your team.
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  9. omc1969

    omc1969 Veteran

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    Good post Ric. As is always the case this will all be dependent on just who Emery goes after in FA and who he will target in the draft. Way too many variables involved and as we have seen in the past it's almost impossible to figure out just who he will target. It is fun however to speculate during the slow time of the off-season.
    ;)
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  10. GermansbombedPH

    GermansbombedPH Pro-Bowler

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    depending on who is available and who falls. We could end up with a "projected Top10" pick. For us, that could end up as great value.

    If Nix, Touitt, Hageman and 2-3 of the DEs of interest + Clinton Dix are still avaiable trading down 4 - 7 spots to a 3rd or late 2nd wouldn't be the worst idea.
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  11. GermansbombedPH

    GermansbombedPH Pro-Bowler

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    how can I edit my post to correct some spelling errors?


    better said, why can I edit this post but not the other?
  12. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    There is a 30min limit to edit all posts
  13. jackiejokeman

    jackiejokeman Pro-Bowler

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    I could see that because it takes care of all the needs on Defense.

    Its always going to be like that Ric. Is the new Halas Hall as smart as N.E. ?

    We cant take past draft picks under past regimes and compare them to this regime.

    N.E. is the target for getting players ... its in play every year , with results that get them were we want to be.

    Seattle and Frisco may be flash in the pans ... we dont know yet. But N.E. has shown the way for too long.
  14. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Ne is the gold standard on how to draft, they'll get their share of bad drafts but they win more often then not. And imo its because they are willing to move back and just gain a ton of picks year after year....when itsuits them they aren't passingon players they want
  15. Xa0sG0rilla

    Xa0sG0rilla Veteran

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    I care less where the players are picked, and more how well they play.


    Just because someone else said it, doesn't make it any less true.
  16. Henry Burris

    Henry Burris Head Coach

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    I don't think it's really fair to jump on Emery if he trades back, just because Angelo did. Emery has also shown he's willing to move up (AJ) if he sees a "must have" player, so the guy is obviously more concerned with how and where he can get the talent than Angelo's "Well, let's throw a bunch of crap at the wall and see what sticks"
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