Trade Down Scenario

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by BSBEARS, Mar 29, 2014.

  1. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    now you got the concept, I think we should use all the picks on offense though. Who needs defense anyway?:13_4_6[1]:
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  2. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    BSB you forget that these are simply subjective player rankings. They aren't player ratings as I've already pointed out. You really can't use this to project where a player might go. Case in point; pull up that player "ratings" for CBs and you'll find that Dennard, Gilbert and Fuller all "rate" a 6.9 which in the NFP world is their success rating as an NFL player. Consult the grading scale and it gives the detail for each rating range.

    Look at some of the mocks. Some have Gilbert going before Dennard yet in that ranking he's #14 and Dennard is #11 while Fuller is #17. Where they go will depend on how teams "value" one over another. Dennard is the best press cover man while Gilbert plays best in space and is a top notch returner as well. So if team A (picking 8th) "values" Gilbert's skills higher he'll go earlier than Dennard who goes to team B (picking 11th) and in need of a cover corner. Fuller seems to be the most physical of the three so he'll go to a team who values run support from their corners. I posted this yesterday as a way to clear up the misconception that Fuller was the third best CB. He's really not. They all "rate" equally. It's simply how a subjective ranking system places them on the list.

    Another example is QB Derek Carr whose "ranked" as the 15th best player available and I saw a mock that had him going to the QB needy Vikes and #8. Clowney is ranked as the top pick but may go several spots later depending on the needs of teams in the top five. C.J. Mosley "ranks" as the 9th best player available but none of the mocks I've seen even have him in the top ten and some not even in the top 20. These player "rankings" are not absolutes. They're nothing more than a way to put some sense of order to the group so that draftniks can call one player a "reach" at #10 and another a "high value" pick at #21. It has some meaning but not the same meaning you're trying to use it for here.

    Of the top DTs four all "rate" a 6.8 but "rank" as; Nix, Hageman, Jernigan, and Donald in that order. It means nothing if the Bears who are picking at #14 "value" a one-gap 3 tech DT higher than a wide body two-gap traditional NT like Nix, or a hybrid 5 tech DE like Hageman who might be best in a 3-4 or a "shade" 4-3 NT like Jernigan seems to be the best fit for. Basically they're all apples from the same tree so you take the one who best fits the defense you run. So if the Bears continue to play a one gap 4-3, and Emery says that's still the plan, which one do you think is the best fit? Donald of course and probably Jernigan next because Paea is a "shade" 4-3 NT in the last year of his rookie deal. Nix is better suited for a 3-4 NT and Hageman better suited as a 3-4 5 tech DE.

    Nobody is saying there aren't other viable picks at that #14 spot. Pryor is one and maybe Mosley too, and even Fuller. If you want to win now it all comes down to who gives you that best chance. What position do you need to fill that gives you something you lack now and could be a difference maker. I'll tell you what I see, and don't take offense, but you seem to be bent on coming up with any alternative that ends up with us NOT taking Donald when actually he's at least one of two or three at the very top of our list if need dictates. You even proposed on version of a trade down that would have been a horrible trade off of a top pick for later picks.

    If the Bears do take a player other than Donald then maybe Quarles comes into play because his "rating" is 6.7 which puts him just under the others and that puts him around the bottom of one or the top of two. So if they really want a 3 tech and they pass on Donald now they have to worry about whether Quarles will fall far enough to get him at #19 in two or they'll have to give up another pick to move up to get him. You have them wanting to collect more picks and yet this way of going about it may cost them picks. JMHO but ya' gotta take those rankings with a grain of salt. In fact in some years a whole shaker full of salt. They have some meaning but not all that much as to exactly where a guy will be picked or whose better than who. Donald is an equivalent value to the other three according to their "success rating" and it all comes done to needs and fits.
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2014
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  3. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Nice try but sarcasm doesn't work around here, or at least not with those of us who've been following this team since the Pilgrims landed at Plymouth Rock. Some of what we're saying is also based on some of the history of the team and the type of player we have typically gone after. So you can stop being an asshole anytime you like and maybe realize that some of us do know what we're talking about based on little more than our experience as Bears fans. I'll match my years of frustration with them with your anytime you like brother.
  4. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    To add an additional layer, these ratings are how they were rated by them. You can bet individual team ratings on those same attribues will differ. Sometimes drastically. That is why I don;t expend much energy on these drafts. I've learned to work on things I can control.
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  5. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Thats the thing, Emery has proven he doesn't give a rats ass about where the "experts" rank players. He clearly has his own board that probably changes daily as he and his team work through the hours of film and interviews. Is it likely that Donald, Dix, and Pryor are around the top of his board? Yeah probably. But I gauren-damn-tee you that there are guys he has his eye on that have not been mentioned in any seriousness on here. I mean c'mon we had plenty of hot debate on who the 20 pick should have been last year. I don't think Kyle Long was mentioned. Not once. This year is a BIT more predictable because we have a better idea on who will be there. Still not a good one as there are surely going to be draft day surprises.
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  6. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    You know something. I'm tired of debating this trade down thing. If any GM of a team who hopes to contend now is willing to trade away a pick that could get him the impact player he needs now for more picks that are usually 2nd tier guys who are either a year or two away from starting or are rated as little more than potential career backups then have at it. That's not the way I'd go about it and all the trade down strategies in the world won't change that.

    Why? Because they are all based on the speculation that the players mocked into the slots of those extra picks will be there when it's your turn to pick and that's nothing more than the same imaginative thinking that all mocks are based on. You want to talk about real world reality BSB well step up to the table then because this is it. We have a pretty damn good idea of what three or players we could use most will be on the board at #14. At least enough to say out of a list that includes almost all of those who've been discussed at least one of two will be.

    So you tell me this. How can you keep making a case for the Donald alternatives like Pryor or Mosely of Fuller or whoever else trips into your mind on one hand and then propose a trade that takes ALL OF THEM of the board before your next pick and replaces them with more 2nd tier players who we already have coming out of our asses. We need a couple more impact guys not more backups. Those we can cull of waiver lists and later in the draft of we haven't already filled our basket with them in FA. I don't see any consistency in your approach to this OTHER than to come up with reasons for not taking Donald.

    If we do we do and if we don't we don't. The sun will still come up in the East every morning and I'll still have to pay my bills, pay my own taxes and die some day. Something never change and most of those are far more important to me than whether we take a DT, FS, ILB, or a CB with that pick. All I know is it's likely to be one of those four and I just want Emery to get the best one for the Bears not the one NFP or any mock says is the best.
  7. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    Nor should he, IMO. If the writers know how how to rank his needs better than he does, then he should not be a GM. He has his rankings, he has the plan of what he still wants to accomplish in FA, and even he does not know who will be available in the draft. He may have be able to go with his plan A or he may have to go with his fourth or fifth choice. He wanted Bennet in FA and didn;t get him. Stuff happens. The guy is excellent at contingency planning. Whatever happens, it will be well thought out. I guess the point I was trying to make is that the energy expended on trying to do a mock is only worth as much as its entertainment value. There is precious litt real information we have about how he values players. Both the draft players as well as his own. And even if we did, we could only make educated guesses because who will actually be available may not be who we think.

    It is fun to speculate, but it nevers comes out in the end no matter how many man hours are expended by the "experts" and fans throughout the country.
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  8. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    That's another reason I don;t mock, LOL. Arguments about complete speculation? Makes no sense. How can you be right or wrong on that?
  9. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Perfect example Grizz and he wasn't mentioned because no one had him rated or ranked as a first round pick. But we need an OG or an OT and when Emery judged him more on his physical strengths then he did on his lack of college experience he grabbed him and the kid made the Pro Bowl as a rookie and proved to be a very astute pick no one expected.

    If Emery uses that same school of thought this year then the two DL who should be highest on his list would be Hageman and Donald. Both have some incredible physical superiority to the other prospects and it could very well come down to those two. As I pointed out in that novel I posted about all four DTs "rate" the same so who any team picks will be based on need.

    If Emery is sold on sticking with a 4-3 for the foreseeable future then Donald goes to the head of the list. Conversely is he values size and versatility then maybe it's Hageman on top. My point through all of this is that at #14 we're in the cat bird seat. We'll be surrounded by players with great ratings who are almost all "fits" in one way or another and we know with 100% certainty that we can get one of them.

    I would not trade that off for the speculation of getting two or three lesser players later who we don't need all that badly this year. Emery has filled his needs for some starters and backups in FA and that's where you go for that. Now he needs to rifle shoot one or two more starters out of this class who can come in and contribute at a spot he hasn't filled and that's what the first couple of rounds of draft is for.
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  10. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    I realize that thank you.

    There are other players in the draft and You know who is one of many.

    I am just tired of every post being Donald, Donald, Donald, Donald. Frustration I got 54 yrs of it. There are many ways to fix the team and I wise enough to know Donald is one of many options. So quit trippin over Donald and resulting to name calling. Obviously I can not tell if Quarles will be there in RD 2 but I believe he will and if he is there in several mocks it would be reasonable. Or as you say.
    "2nd tier players who me this. How can you keep making a case for the Donald alternatives like Pryor or Mosely of Fuller or whoever else trips into your mind on one hand and thenwe already have coming out of our asses. We need a couple more impact guys not more backups. " I think somebody likes to use subjective for others and have it not apply.
    BSB you forget that these are simply subjective player rankings.
    If that aint the pot calling the Kettle black. I believe most here have an open mind and I can understand your preference for DONALD, There are other options and many mocks show them. Guess I didnt realize other options were not allowed.

    I need a break from here to cool down, and keep an open perspective
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  11. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    mocks are for fun and to discuss players we really haven't looked(more in rounds 2- 7) and don't know much about. It's hardly about predicting what a team will do, it's a fun time wasting exercise to also do a little research on players.
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  12. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I will always remember that first game against Plymouth Rock. They had no answer for our running game that year.

    [​IMG]

    The Vikings were pretty tough back then though.

    [​IMG]

    Even the Redskins were tough back then.

    [​IMG]
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  13. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Soul...a hypocrite? NAH, that's crazy talk. He'd neve.....wait nvm that's pretty much Soul to a tee. HIS opinion is the only one that is sound in logic, and ONLY those that agree w/him 100% are also correct and intelligent enough to know football, until they don't and then their back to being football stupid not worth discussing all things football.

    Reality is that Donald isn't the only impact 3 tech DT in the draft as he'll try and claim, as if he's the modern day NFL prophesier. There is NO WAY ANY OF US know who is going to play and be an impact player. Those come in all 7 rounds, and it's just about what team, what scheme, and how hard they are willing to work.
  14. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    All well said houston. They won't let me give you two "Likes" for this or I would. :lol-027:

    It is an just educated guesses where our sleuthing about Emery's intentions are pitted against the media types and the usual guru's and draftniks, pro and amateur alike, who love to do rankings and mock drafts for bragging rights over who hit on more of their projections than the others. Was Mel Kiper more right or was it Todd McShay or did Mike Maycock scoop them all?

    Frankly I don't care whether I'm right or wrong about that pick. All I'm doing is exercising my brain with it. I'm simply taking what I think I know about Emery and the habits of the team as it relates to "their kind of guy" and mixing that in with whatever little tidbits or glimmers Emery or Trestman have allowed to slip out. Some of it may be accurate and some no more than a smoke screen to hide their true intent.

    I try to sort through all of that truth and fiction to reach some reasonable and logical conclusions of what might happen when the Bears are "on the clock". That's what trips my trigger. Not how many picks I hit on. It's the thrill of the hunt not the kill that interests me and right now that's what we're all doing. In fact that's what everyone who follows their team is doing along with the guys who actually get paid for it.

    What I've added up so far is this;

    1) We're staying with a one gap 4-3 for the immediate future because we have the best players to play that system. Signing a guy like Jared Allen confirms it because, unlike the Pack with Pep, we aren't planning on trying to play a long time vet out of position as an "Elephant LB". He's a top pass rusher as a 4-3 RDE and that's where he'll play. Young is also a 4-3 DE, not a 3-4 OLB.

    2) Emery confirmed during the weeks before Melton left that he was still interested in bringing him back. He also remarked on how much better the defense played in those first three games before he was injured even though Melton's play then was far from the 2012 dominating version of himself. He also said in plain simple English just how important a 3 tech DT was to the Bears defense but not once did he say that if Melton wasn't re-signed that he'd just move Houston or Ratliff there to take his place when both have played their best football at other positions and Collins who is still rehabbing isn't above a backup level guy albeit a very good one. So a 3 tech must still be high on his list.

    3) He resigned BOTH of his Pro Bowl CBs. One to a four year deal with guarantees and the other to a one year deal where he committed as much as $3.5 mil to him for the year. In both cases they're paid far about backup money so the chances they'll sit if healthy are slim and none and slim already left town. He also admitted that he was wrong drafting players high in the draft at one position based mainly on their physical attraction and then expecting them to adapt to playing a different position in the pros. Hardin failed as a Safety and was injured as often here as he was in college. McClellin couldn't bulk up enough or gain the strength needed to play DE in a 4-3 so he's being moved to a more natural OLB position and possibly a roving pass rusher. Conte, another college QB, has one foot out the door and Bears fans in general can't wait to see that happen soon enough. Bostic has struggled so far as a MLB and seems far more suited for WLB and Greene is in danger of either becoming no more than a backup and STeams only guy.

    These are all his top defensive picks over the last two drafts so with this info to digest just how likely is it that we would spent that first pick on a CB and either let him sit for a year or more or force the issue by replacing Conte with him just to get him on the field. So I wouldn't put money and a CB being his pick even if the guy was "ranked" a little higher than another.

    4) He signed two FA Safeties already to compete for SS and FS. One has started for two years in GB and the other backed up two Safety tandems with Pro Bowl players but when he finally got his shot at starting in NY he did well. These guy both came cheap so if he does take a Safety who outplays one or the other and Conte he'll have no problem seeing him start over the others. Those are being paid like backups. He also said Conte will be given a shot at keeping his job but he'll have earn it. Conte salary also went from roughly $555k to $1.43this year and all it would cost him was $133k to release him and save another $1.3 mil of cap space but he didn't. So we already have two Safeties with significant NFL starts and another with at least some and a history as a very good backup. We also brought Steltz back who as a Safety is always around the ball but also tends to arrive a step too late. But he's a great STeams guy and also an experienced backup.

    The Bears never have seemed to have valued the Safety position as high as they have other defensive position like DL, LB and CB. The last time they used a 1st round pick on one was over 20 years ago (Mark Carrier) and if my memory hasn't failed me he's the ONLY Safety we ever drafted that high. Our habit has been to take them in the middle rounds both under Emery and under JA and the GM before them, who I believe Mark Hatfield. So the odds that we'll use that first pick on a Safety aren't as high as they would be for a LB or a DL and IMHO it happens ONLY if that Safety is the BPA over the DL or MLB. If it's Dix who slides to #14 I give that more chance of happening than if it's Pryor. So I'm not saying it won't happen but rather that if was a betting man I'd be looking for odds on taking a Safety over a DL.

    5) So that leaves me with the conclusion that a DT who can play that missing 3 tech is highest on the wish list. What I don't know for sure in this regard is if both are still on the board whether they'll go with Donald whose the better fit now and maybe the safer bet or with Hageman who has more size and possibly more upside. So why do I lean towards Donald? Because he's the perfect 3 tech type and was a Sr. Bowl whiz, a Combine surprise, and a very productive collegian at Pitt. If he was two inches taller and 10lbs heavier he'd be a top ten pick. Why not Hageman. Two reasons I put him second. In addition to the fact that I believe #14 is too high for him he was not a productive collegian. That doesn't mean he may not be a productive pro but it casts a shadow of doubt I don't feel is there with. Donald.

    Will he be the better player two years from now? Possibly but I'm trying to win now and if he's not now then how do I justify taking him over someone who is. If he is more successful then I believe it will come because he's playing at a 5 tech DE spot not a 3 tech DT spot. He reminds me a bit of a guy who was mocked to the Bears a couple of years ago. Muhammad Wilkerson out of Temple. Smaller program guy with decent measurables but not in anyway a prototypical DT either in size of style of play. IIRC the Jets took him number one and he's been a pretty successful 3-4 DE for them. But would he have done as well as a 4-3 DE or as a DT. We don't know but IMHO he's a better fit for the Jets than for the Bears.

    So that's all I have to go on so far and it's all just educated guesses and one man's opinion but it is an EDUCATED guess if only because I took the time to sort through all of the info and knowledge I have about it not because I'm smarter than anyone else. I don't care about being wrong at all. That's not why I debate but all I ask that if someone wants to debate me they consider those facts I've stated to reach these conclusions and challenge those, not avoid them with other possibilities that probably don't fit this situation.
  15. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    LMAO. Wasn't there an NFL team called the Plymouth somethings back in the very earliest days or am I just thinking of the Plymouth station wagon my Father used drive? :confused:
  16. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Bother I hear ya' but I'm not one whose saying it has to be Donald only that the sum total of whatever worthwhile indications I've collected point to that. But I've also said that others would be a fit here too. Dix if he slides, possibly Hageman but it seems a little high for him and he's really more of a 3-4 5 tech DE. Mosley and Fuller I think not only because Mosley strikes me more as a 3-4 ILB or a 4-3 OLB than he does a 4-3 MLB but the guy looks good on paper. If we hadn't spent to picks on LBs last year and moved McClellin to SLB I'd be more inclined to see him as a possibility. Fuller is also a great pick but a luxury after having signed Jennings and Peanut. He might be a great investment for the future and excellent depth now if one of the other of Tillman or Jennings are hurt but if not he sits and that's not what you normally expect of a 1st round pick. But knowing Emery and his one off drafting if there was a dark horse I'd say he may be it.

    A trade down scenario, at least with SF, seems unlikely for two reasons. One is that Emery has a more aggressive nature to him and would be more likely to trade up in two for a guy he wanted (maybe that CB) than to trade that far down in one. With that #14 he doesn't need to trade up because he's almost certain one or more of the top guys on his board will still be there for the taking.

    So I'm not Donald only but rather he's the one I prefer and the one who seems to make the most sense based on 1) immediate need, 2) Bears drafting history, 3) Emery's allusion about how important a 3 tech like Melton is to the defense, and 4) Donald has passed every hurdle so far that would send him down the boards and with his lack of ideal size it wouldn't have taken much for that to happen. For whatever reason Jernigan seems to be declining a little but not Donald so that should provide just one more piece of data to digest. That's all I'm doing because that's how I process data in order to make decisions. It's professional habit with me because of the work I do. So I'm not opposed to other choices. All I want is the best choice and to date Donald seems like it. That may all change over the next month or so.

    :peaceout: :13_4_9[1]:
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  17. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Close. No Plymouth, but there was Portsmouth (the Spartans). They were out of Ohio and an early NFL franchise. They eventually moved to Detroit in the 1930's, and that's where the Lions franchise came from. Kind of like the Decatur Staleys becoming the Chicago Bears.

    [​IMG]
  18. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Is that Matt Damon in the bottom left? He's either a Highlander or a Vampier, either way it looks like he's as much of a fail then as he is now.
  19. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    oh... don't get me wrong. I'm not saying not to do them or that I don't enjoy looking at them. I just honestly have so little time (even less when I can't stay off this damn board), that I just can't do the research and spend the time to do them justice. And in the end, I am just wired not to spend much time on stuff that I can't affect. I'm not saying it's stupid, just not for me. Didn't mean any sort of insult or anything. Well.... maybe for you! :drinking61:
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