TRADING PARTNER

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by BSBEARS, Mar 1, 2014.

  1. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    This might work. I read a separate article that they want Ha-Ha Dix also so they may have serious intent to upgrade position. The niners have numerous picks so they may separate with some of the picks

    upload_2014-3-1_20-15-32.png
    http://ninernoise.com/2014/02/26/san-francisco-49ers-trade-mike-evans/

    Below is bears and niners picks. Using trade value chart we give up 14 pick in yellow and get the blue from the niners. Works out even per trade value chart. We give up a lot from 14 to 30 but gain extra pick in rds 2 and 3 and 6th

    upload_2014-3-1_20-17-37.png

    the left below is no trade and rt is with trades using draftek simulator. Note I did not reset any of the criteria so its there basic.
    upload_2014-3-1_20-24-34.png

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  2. sluggobear

    sluggobear Veteran

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    Thanks for sharing your thought's on a trade down. I believe SF is one of the only viable trades we can make.
  3. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I don't believe I'd make that trade unless the three guys I had at the top of my board at #14 were all gone and as of today those guys are Donald, Gilbert, and Dixon FS or Pryor SS. I'm not a fan of Hageman at all. To me he's another workout warrior and athletic freak without the production to back it up. To many drafniks and gurus are hung up on that and not enough on his rather mediocre college career at a school where he could have been a standout player. I believe he's far more bust than boom. Another Jarron Gilbert.

    Pass rush and Safety are huge needs and if the pass rusher is there I think you have to take him and if not then at least one of those DBs should be although again this is all contingent on how things break in FA. Emery isn't afraid to get bold and with Martellus on the team I wouldn't put it past him to take swing at Michael Bennett. I'd much rather have him than Hageman even at a much higher cost. If Biggsy is right about them being lukewarm about re-signing Wootton then to me Bennett would be the main reason.
  4. a_miljan

    a_miljan Veteran

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    im not sure i would want to trade down, its rather easy to understand, lowers our chances to get the guy we want :) i would stay put and draft a real D playmaker
  5. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Well like Emery said at the Combine it's tough to trade down and get fair value and the hypothetical BSB did shows that. Instead of an impact player early what you end up with a fringe 1st rounders who don't really fit as well. I'm not one who believes we need so much help on defense that we have to overlook that impact player for more middle of the road guys. Filling the gaps that are needed with experienced vets who'll play for short money on one or two year deals can take care of a lot of needs and in the Bears case there are a number of their own FAs who fall into that category as well. Many of those guys were core players on a top 5 defense in 2012 and worth bringing back.

    To me there's only three valid reasons to trade down;

    1) Your top guy or guys are gone and the next up are not worth the pick.

    2) The offer is so overwhelming (like Ditka trading his entire draft for Ricky Williams) that it's impossible to say no.

    3) Your team is a bottom feeder, you have no cap room to sign FAs, and the draft is very deep.

    Other than that I don't think you give up an impact player who can help you in favor of more picks when you're sitting between #10 and #20 in the picking order. To me that's where you find the bargains because of top ten teams drafting QBs, 3-4 OLBs and OTs based on need.
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  6. Bearstuff

    Bearstuff Yes, in the woods. Staff Member SuperFan

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    Another good trade partner in the first round is Miami (19). I believe they will be willing to move up (modestly) to get oline. I like the trade back to 19 much better than to 30. The tiers, in my mind, go 1-8, 9-21, 22-28, and then down quite a bit.
  7. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    It will come down to how they have rated the players and if they feel somebody they want that they do not believe other teams will take will be avail. I am not as high on Donald as many. I am leary of the combine and stick more with the end of season rankings. Donald was the 4th DT at the end of the season on the board and now after the combine he is Numero uno. I do not agree in my mind he is the work out warrior and the freak. We will see how Emery rates him I guess.
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  8. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    not a bad consolation prize in the youth movement to end up w/2 1st round gradeable DL and 3 DB and 4 other players.

    I'd still perfer a legit FS like Dix on our team, but the D just doesn't have enough players, and the whole team lacks depth minus the WR and OLB positions. FA could well change all that though.
  9. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    I would do this trade in a heartbeat, in a freakin heartbeat. I wouldn't necessarily do it in every draft, but given the dearth of underclassmen that have entered this year and the subsequent depth of talent, I think it's a no-brainer.
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  10. BearJim

    BearJim Veteran SuperFan DBS Writer

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    A lot would depend on how the draft is playing out. Most years 1-2 teams reach big time early in the draft causing a player or two to drop that you just can't pass on or that player/players don't fill a need for you but other teams are willing to over pay for them. The main thing is picking the right guy when you're on the clock, whenever that ends up being.

    I guess I'm more focused on FA. That will tell a lot about how the draft goes & it's only 9 days away!
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  11. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    That would get us another top 100 player in the top 1/3 of the third round and if the guy they wanted would still be one the board I'd do it in a heartbeat but the farther they move back the riskier it becomes to get the guy they want. It would be nice if Emery had identified another "under the radar" guy like Long who most had ranked in the 2nd round and pick up that guy later in round one plus get a high 3rd to a mid 2nd to move back. The trouble is I don't see that guy unless maybe it's Pryor. He lost some ground at the Combine but man he'll be a beast of a SS.
  12. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I thought less of him before the Combine as well but that was based more on the fact that some sources had him listed at 6' and 275lbs and that is too small for an NFL DT. But the Combine dispelled that when he was measured just an 1/8th inch short of 6'1" and a solid 288lbs. Hell, Nate Collins is only 6'2" and 296lbs and in 2012 Paea was playing NT at 6'1" and less than 295lbs. Melton only goes 295lbs as well and Trestman says he's lighter this year so Donald isn't as small as some believed prior to the Combine.

    Now add to that his 35 reps on the bench and a 4.68 40 yard dash (and that combination is incredible for a DT) and combine it with his college productivity and this kid looks awful good to me right now. He's similar to Paea but even quicker off the snap and more productive as a pass rusher whereas Paea plays the run better than he rushes. Play Paea and Donald as a pair and you have two very quick, very strong DTs who can play low and shoot gaps and that's what the Bears defense has been based on for years.

    Now whether Tucker, Trestman and Emery still see it that way we don't know but I could get excited about a DT rotation with Paea, Donald, Collins and Ratliff and not be bothered at all if they let Melton go. At times Collins has looked almost as good as Melton and Ratliff is a 4 time Pro Bowler who I think still has a good year or two left in his tank. Remember, he's barely played at all for the last two years so his football age is closer to 30 or 31 than it is to 32 or 33 and Dallas still wanted him. If they do keep Melton and he's playing lighter IMHO he'd me a good prospect to use at LDE and DT like they've been using Izzy and Wootton. That bunch with Pep playing a more limited number of snaps rotating with someone like, Melton, Bass or Washington if that kid has anything at all to offer and that's a seriously good line without spending big on a free agent DE or DT.

    I may be way off base as far as what they're planning on or what they can do but IMHO they have the resources already there to fix most of the problems with that line and a guy like Donald can be a valuable addition to that.
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  13. Bearstuff

    Bearstuff Yes, in the woods. Staff Member SuperFan

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    See that is a very realistic point of view on the likely course of action. I see so many posts where folks either act like we have a dozen picks in the draft or have the cap space to get Melton or someone else costing $8mm/yr. Truth is because of the number of signings we have, Ratliff might not even be possible, but I expect a few moves to free up space (Peppers, etc.). Still, the best we will do is to throw $5mm/yr of cap space around....that means we aren't making a splash, but hopefully we will use our resources wisely. The number one part of that is our draft picks. I believe Donald could be the key to us being able to get impact players (to start) in the draft at potentially 3 positions on defense. The keystone is/was/will always be DT. Strength there (at a value) will solidify even average to weak play elsewhere.
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  14. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Exactly. Any good 4-3 HAS to have a penetrating 3 tech DT and Donald is not only the best player at that position but at #14 he may well be the best player on the board at a position of need. Whether or not we sign Melton to a cap friendly deal we still rotate our DT and DE positions to keep them fresh so there's no way he becomes a wasted pick. He'll get plenty of snaps and he becomes the hedge against Melton not playing at the Pro Bowl level he was playing at in 2012 or the possibility that he plays on another one year deal because it's the best he can get and he goes free agent again in 2015. Emery has to decide whether to take that "leap of faith" that Melton his able to perform at a high level again and tie him up for four years or risk losing him with a one year "prove it" offer.

    Paea and Ratliff or Collins are all very competent players but neither one is likely to be that gap shooting pass rusher that Melton was in 2012 or that Donald could well be. I'll just reinforce what I've said before. If a team can draft a good pass rushing DT you never pass on that guy. Look at Gerald McCoy in TB. The guy had 9.5 sacks last year and 50 tackles. He's a monster 3 tech DT. Look at Suh and Fairley in Detroit. Both are interchangeable at NT and 3 tech. Seattle didn't win the Super Bowl with a big line. They were smaller and faster and they won because they put constant pressure on Manning up the middle, blocked his short passing lanes and didn't allow him room to step up into the pocket which gave their DEs time to get around the OTs and get sacks and pressure.

    Lovie had his faults but one of them wasn't being a defensive fool. He drafted Tommie Harris to play that role and that guy was all world until he got hurt. We lacked that guy until Melton came along and we may lose him either in free agency or because he's lost that quick burst because of his injury. We have a shot at replacing him with a guy who has all the tools to do what Harris and Melton did and if he's still on the board I think you have to take him and work around that. He can be your difference maker. There's a reason why guys like Pep, Izzy and Wootton combined for over 25 sacks in 2012 and it's because Melton was making that possible. The problem is we don't know whether or not he can still do that and Donald is the hedge to make sure someone can or at least that's my take on it.

    I'll also go back and say that if Melton is looking for a 4 year deal that pays him franchise tag money with 50% of his deal guaranteed then my by guess is that Emery will wish him well and either shoot for a guy like Bennett or he'll fill his spot in the draft with a guy that will cost him a fraction of what either of those two will cost. I believe he'd like to keep both Pep and Peanut if he can get them for $4-$5 mil and that's gonna be hard to do if he has to spend that money on just one DT.
  15. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    Great analyses guys. Between Pep, Melton, and Tillman, I think we will ending up keeping 2 and jettisoning 1. Of course it's going to come down to money and who will accept what and who wants way more than Phil is willing to cough up. I'll make a guess here reading the tea leaves so to speak: the guy of the three most likely to bolt or scoff at Emery's offer will be Melton.

    We will have a pretty good idea here soon who Phil is prioritizing keeping and who he isn't. If he signs a DE, that signals to me that he's not confident in getting Pep to take a renegotiated deal. You could say the same about Peanut if Emery signs a CB though I doubt Phil tries to get one in FA. Melton, if he's gonna leave, will probably be gone fairly early in the open signing period which starts a week from Tuesday. I just have a feeling that the FO isn't "sold" on Henry enough to risk a multi-year, sizable-money deal. Freely admit, I could end up being completely wrong.

    Every time I read someone say something like: "we don't have the cap space to keep X" or "X should be let go because it will cost blank-million to keep him", I am reminded of a few things. First off, let's remember that every time you let someone go you have to spend money and/or a draft pick in an attempt to replace him. It's isn't "free". We aren't talking about obvious no-brainer cuts like Kellen Davis last year here. Peanut for instance may be getting up there but he's still a damn good CB with good size and great for team chemistry. How much would it cost to replace him with a comparable FA vet? A lot. Maybe a high draft pick could come in and nail down the job right away. Maybe that pick will be Dre Kilpatrick ver 2 whose been a major 1st round disappointment. Maybe the team needs those high draft picks elsewhere more acutely. And secondly, though cap space constraints are certainly present, the Bears do have a lot of cap flexibility options they can call upon if needed. The number that exists today is not a static number.
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  16. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    Outstanding post MP.

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