What SHOULD our first round pick be?

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by Henry Burris, Mar 27, 2014.

?

Which position?

  1. DT

    21 vote(s)
    70.0%
  2. FS

    5 vote(s)
    16.7%
  3. SS

    3 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. DE

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. NT

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. WR (because I LOVE Madden)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. RB (Because I'm a retard)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. K (Because i'm a smartass)

    1 vote(s)
    3.3%
  1. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99
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    This is a bit off-topic, but what if a top-5 player would drop into our laps - but he's an offensive player - do we pass on that guy because we need defense? For example, there are two OT's graded out as top-5 for this year's draft. If one would drop to us at #14, do you pass on him due to the fact we need defense?
     
  2. soulman

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    Well if we use Gabriel's latest Moch v2.0 as the basis for this discussion let's look at the top ten or twelve not just the top five. Who are the top offensive players?

    3 OTs; Robinson, Matthews and Lewan
    2 WRs; Watkins, Evans
    1 QB; Bridgewater
    1 TE; Ebron

    I don't really see a huge need on the Bears part at any of those positions. If we had not signed Bennett last year, and he had not been all we expected and more than maybe Ebron would be a perfect fit but I wouldn't spend that #14 pick on a #2 TE. We also don't need a top QB, we have two of the best WRs in the NFL already, we fixed the OL last year and they played well. Especially the two rookies and both have great upside.

    If a top five or top ten offensive player fell that far, and we didn't like the remaining choices at #14, I think Emery would trade down until he got what he was looking for. That said I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that any top ten offensive pick would still be on the board at #14 but even if I stretch to include Ebron, Evans, and Lewan I just don't see the need over a top defender.
     
  3. JustAnotherBearsFan99

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    Crazy things happen in the draft each year. If one of those top 2 offensive tackles (Robinson and Matthews, both graded out as top-5 players in the entire draft this year) dropped into our laps at #14, I could see Emery grabbing him. Emery seems like he doesn't care what anyone thinks.......he kindof marches to a different drummer. Do you think the fan base would riot if he grabbed an OT instead of a Donald or Dix? Probably.
     
  4. dachuckster

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    I think a top 5 player falling into our laps at 14 is the basis of a really lucrative trade-down strategy.
     
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  5. little bear

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    We're thin at DT, gimmie Donald or Jernigan. We can still draft a safety in the second round.
     
  6. BSBEARS

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    Riot, no. I think the fan base would question it for sure. If the OT in your example graded out like Long did last yr, I think the fan base would understand the pick. I personally still think hiring Trestman, an offensive minded coach, was a turning point more to an emphasis on Offense than Defense. Everyone wants a top offense and defense but with the salary cap you can either be middle of the road at both O and D or pick your poison Offense vs Defense. I am excited to see how good of a Defense we can really have with a top offense and hope we do not sacrifice a top offense and end up with a middle of the road offense and defense in the attempt to improve the D. I know we all have our opinions but I wonder what value Trestman would put in a 2 TE set with 2 serious TE's much like the Pats had before Hernandez went to jail. Thus I would no be as surprised to see Ebren in rd 1 or a TE in rd 2. On paper the D is looking vastly improved, how much more do you do if you are trying to be an Offensive power and do you draft offense to allow a whole no offensive set and playbook. I like DT, ILB, CB, TE and OT in rd 1. I have not fallen in love with a player like many on Donald but still trying to look at impoving entire team, and maybe adding to the playbook with a TE would hold more value to Trestman than a DT.. Obviously I do not know the answer but since I do not know the game plan it would be hard to get into riot mode until it had a chance to play out. Granted I am reserving the right to riot down the road.:14_4_103[1]:
     
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  7. soulman

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    Yeah but I don't think he's thinking along those lines. The reason those OTs are top ten picks is because they're OT and that position has become a premium position in a passing league. If it was a 3 yard and a cloud of dust league then OGs might rank higher. I'm sitting here as this stuff all rolls through trying to make a distinction between where a player ranks vs his rating which in the case of NFP is how they see this kid performing in the NFL.

    In some cases, like the top 3 CBs, they all carry the same rating (6.9) but as far as overall player rankings Dennard is #11, Gilbert is #14, and Fuller is #17. So throw 'em all in a barrel, pick one out, and based on that alone you'd have a good chance of getting a very good football player. But we also know they have slightly different skill sets that would appeal to certain teams more than others so draft order comes into play. Despite the ranking most have Gilbert being picked first because of size and his return skills but Dennard may be the guy a team wants because he's the top man on man cover guy.

    Same with the DTs. They all have the same 6.8 rating and Nix has the highest overall ranking but if you aren't a team who uses a big NT then Nix may not be your guy. If you want a pure 3 tech Donald is your guy even though Hageman ranks higher. So sometimes these rankings when they talk about a top five or a top ten guy get out of whack when there isn't a team in the top five who needs the QB ranked #1 or #1 ranked WR in the whole draft and so on. So guys fall but seldom does a top five guy fall out of the top ten so I'd say the chances of any top five guy falling to #14 is pretty slim unless there's an injury or character issue that's been hidden and then discovered.

    I think for the most part the top guys are "what ya' see is what ya' get guy". There's so much dope on them that no one lacks much info. The risks of failure are high enough already that you don't want to make a mistake based on lousy data and the Combine and Pro Days have pretty much done away with that. I don't think we'll see anymore Ted Gregory type picks. He was a DT out of Syracuse the Broncos took #1 back in the late 80s. He was listed in school as 6'1" and 260lbs. When he showed up at Bronco headquarters after the draft he was actually about 5'10" and barely 250lbs. In other words the Donkey's had spent a 1st round pick on a LB size DT and short one at that. LOL He never even made the team. Played one year with the Saints when they were still the "Ain'ts" and never played in the NFL again.

    The bottom line is that taking a top five pick this year isn't getting you much if any more than the guy picked tenth or even fifteenth. The ratings on these guys are that close. So there's no sense drafting a position you don't need over one you do just because a top five OT with 7.0 rating fell to you when there's 6.8 or 6.9 Safety or CB or a DT who you need for more. That make sense?
     
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  8. soulman

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    Could be but only if they feel safe with who they can take with the later pick. If there's one or two guys there I really want I'm not gonna take a chance on losing that impact starter for another 3rd round pick who may be a backup or may not even make the team. That's a job killer.

    Trade downs aren't as lucrative as they used to be. The new CBA limits rookie salaries so these kids are cheap compared to some 5 or 6 year journeyman vet backup you might to replace. That's why Emery said it's tough to get value in a trade down at that level. He's got a great pick there.
     
  9. kevperro

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    Got to be DT still at this point. We stocked the cupboard at DE but we still need a big boy in the middle to stuff the run and push the pocket. I'd stake S/DB in the 2nd and from there on out I'd look for high value picks. Wouldn't be a bad idea to grab a center and a RB somewhere in the draft too.
     
  10. soulman

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    On paper the defense looks vastly improved from where they were at the end of last year but not necessarily at the beginning of the year. There's a big difference there that some aren't looking at. Hell, the 8th graders from St. Helen of the Blessed Shroud Orphanage might be an improvement over what we ended up with the Penguin as their DC instead of Tucker.

    I believe we've upgraded a little over where we stared the 2013 season but it's not like the impact the makeover of the OL and TE in terms of the difference from one year to the next. Remember that was a top five defense heading into the 2013. I believe we missed the leadership of Urlacher and the consistent play of Roach and Izzy more than was counted on but with the line intact and Williams at MLB it was still a very good defense. Maybe not top five but far better than #31.

    I think we're at least back to where we started off last year if not slightly better against the run but maybe not quite as strong against the pass. This is where it's gets harder to call. We no longer seem to have a problem sealing the edges and with Ratliff and Williams back and Paea healthy again the middle is shored up but that 3 tech is still a weak spot. So how much does Tucker value that compared to how much Emery does and if they aren't in total agreement who wins that battle?

    Offensively I'd still say that having Bennett precludes the need for Ebron in one especially with the defense still short at a couple of spots. I wouldn't rule out him taking another TE later on because Onobun is about all we have in the way of a 2nd "full service" TE and it's risky to think he'll magically "get it" all of a sudden. But neither Gronk (2nd) or Hernandez (4th were 1st round picks so the need to take one as high as the #14 pick when we have a guy whose as good as any 1st round guy we might have taken since Olsen left doesn't seem like a good strategy either. How many more ways are you gonna split up passes when you have two top WRs, a top TE and one of the best receiving backs in the NFL?

    Scoring points is no longer a problem but keeping the other guys from scoring more than we do is a big problem and that's what needs to be fixed. Thankfully it's no longer the offense that's an issue. The majority of this draft should be devoted to the defense where we really haven't gotten much younger if any. We still have a lot of guys who are 30, near 30 or over 30 to think about replacing and that means drafting younger guys and getting them ready to play. Of the first four picks at least 3 should be defensive picks and overall we should have selected more defensive players than offensive players. There's a couple of guys from the PS who may step up this year as depth but beyond that there isn't anything.
     

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