Why I am leary of Donald.

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by BSBEARS, Mar 16, 2014.

  1. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Here is a link to production ratio if you do not know what it is
    http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2014...king-defensive-tackles-for-the-dallas-cowboys

    Link to data sight:
    https://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/national/player/split13/category20/sort01.html


    I only looked at last year but it was a big flag to me. When you compare the PD ratio of Top DL linemen you will find Donald at the top last yr with a 3.04. When you split it out against AP ranked opponents it falls pretty Bad as shown below. It appears when he plays against quality teams / players his ratio takes a pretty good nose dive producing 2 sacks and 0 tackles for loss.

    I know this is not all conclusive but confirms my concerns to me as to how he will hold up against larger and equally strong lineman.

    upload_2014-3-16_19-3-4.png

    Below is a few comments from scouting reports

    upload_2014-3-16_19-17-40.png

    I have stated many times I do not believe the senior bowl and combine should move you from top 5 or 6 to the best and I am not sold on Donald.

    Let me have it I know its coming,:1033[1]:
  2. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    The data showed top 75 players so 0 is because they did not show up in top 75 for sacks or tackles for loss in ranking for against AP or not against AP ranked teams.
  3. MikeV

    MikeV Rookie

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    I agree with you. I find it telling that one of the things listed as a weakness is arm length. Emery always preaches length, size and athleticism. The more I research the more I want a trade down, but you need a partner for that. I like Gilbert and Pryor right now if it has to be at 14, but I'm sure that will change by May.
  4. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I'll start by saying that Quarles shows up in the stats better here than I believed he might have. That said he also played with Clowney who drew all the attention and probably the majority of the double teams and chip blocks and that isn't analyzed by these stats so it becomes a judgment call that can probably only be determined by watching him play in person and also analyzing games tapes we don't have. The dude still has an ugly body and looks tubby. If being in shape and displaying athleticism are both as high on Emery's as he says Quarles may flunk his entry exam. Still, there has to be an interest in the kid either in the second round or late in the first in the unlikely event he trades down.

    I've always had some issues with Donald's ability to do against NFL OG what he did in college but after the Sr. Bowl he dispelled at least some of those concerns. The best of the best, including several high first round OTs, couldn't keep him blocked and eventually those are all guys he'll be playing against. Donald also didn't have a Jadeveon Clowney attracting the double teams. On his team HE was the guy getting that treatment. This AP ranking is somewhat skewed towards players on team who played against ranked opponents as well which isn't something Donald could control. Pitt doesn't exactly play Div. II competition and just two games vs ranked opponents who may have had enough OL depth to double team him all game long doesn't tell us a whole lot either.

    Look at how high Michael Sam ranked against on this list and yet at the Combine his workouts were extremely disappointing. Donald is small but very strong, quick, athletic and extremely fast of foot. Sam is also small but slow of foot and weak yet he shows as one of the more productive pass rushers in this draft class. If I'm a scout I'm far less worried about Donald's basic physical skills and measurable converting into NFL productivity than I am Sam's and where they rank as far as scouts are concerned reflects that.

    There is some degree of risk with Donald as there is with all draft prospects but the skills and measurables he does have indicate that he's the real thing. If he was going to a team like Dallas that just lost most of it's best performing linemen and it was all on him to resurrect their line I'd be more concerned if my name was Rod Marinelli. But in Chicago he won't be expected to be an every down player. He'll be in a rotation with three other DTs all of whom are pretty damn good DTs and hopefully playing next to a very physical LDE with a pass rushing maniac with similar speed and athleticism playing SLB behind him. It's that combination of things, a good DL coach, and a good scheme that can make Donald more effective in Chicago than he might be otherwise.

    I'm not as concerned by those things as you are but that's not to say I'm not concerned at all. Donald's immediate role will be as a pass rusher and disrupter and if Tucker is smart he'll get him into mismatches and line stunts where he can do just that. With this kids foot speed and burst I'd be stunting the hell out of him where he's basically unblocked but has a longer path to the QB. A DT who runs a 5.0 plus 40 won't get there but a guy who runs a 4.68 will with quickness off the snap will. The other thing to consider is that if team need to double team him that's gonna leave other's with single blocking or unblocked and even though that doesn't count in his stats it still wins games.
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  5. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    Well, I couldn't open the link to cfbstats, so I'm not sure how you assembled the list as shown, but it looks like the guys at the top of that list are second tier guys. I mean, I like guys like Quarels, Tuitt, and Crichton, but not in the first. So, where do the other projected 1st round guys fall on this list? I do not see Nix or Hageman even on here. Are they even lower than Donald, or are they part of a bigger list that was not included here for space concerns? My point is, if the other guys aren't listed either, then how valid is this list and why isn't a guy like Quarles considered a top 10 pick? If we're worried about Donald going against the biggest and the best, I would point out that he was one of the top performers at the Senior Bowl.

    I have the same concerns about his size as everyone else, but at the same time, you can't ignore tape either. Like I said, where do the other top guys rank as I don't see them either?
  6. butkus3595

    butkus3595 Veteran

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    I don't see Jernigan on there...so since he's not on there...and FSU basically played the same schedule Pitt did(same conference)...so I guess he non draft able too?
  7. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Interestingly they did not show up on the list. Once again its top 75 and one year only. Many experts say the DT's are deep but not top notch. I am starting to believe that assessment. I can not answer how the list showed. My point is Donald is not a sure thing either as many believe. I can not say he will not be great as he had the highest overall PD ratio, which says he is good. I just question how it will translate at a higher level.

    Here is live link hopefully it works better as I pulled it from the internet vs my spreadsheet.

    http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/national/index.html
  8. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Can you attach files I can attach my spreadsheet with all the data if I knew how. It will not let me atttach .xlms file type.
  9. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    No draft prospect ever is a sure thing and your concerns about his size are shared by others was well including 32 NFL GMs I'm sure. This is a kid you have to take a leap of faith to draft over say and guy like Jernigan whose more the prototypical size. But I'll repeat what I just posted in the Quarles thread. If Aaron Donald was two inches taller and 10lbs heavier then with his stats and Combine measurables this kid would be right alongside Clowney as a potential top five pick and he'd never make it past ten.

    It's that little bit of doubt his lack of prototypical size creates that's pushing him down a bit but he and Jernigan as the #1 and #2 DTs are still ranked far above the others on pro risk vs reward scouting reports. The only question I keep asking myself (and him too most likely) is whether or not Phil will take a flyer on another undersized DLineman. At least there was always the option to play McClellin at LB but that won't be the case with Donald. He's strictly a DT as I see it. The only way he'd ever play LB is if he dropped 40lbs.
  10. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Lets also remember that he didn't jump up until after the season, so his career had said one thing, then 1 game after his college career over has rocketed him to a near top 10 pick, there are reasons to be leary of Donald. The #'s do look a bit skewed considering how many DE's seem to show up comparing to him. I don't see Hageman, Nix, Jernigan, Ferguson, Anthony Johnson, but do see guys like Sam, Ealy, Ford, Crichton who are all DE's.
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  11. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    I grabbed the data at a National look so all schools and 1 year. To really dig into it deeper would probably have to dump by conference and see where it took you. Also it groups DL so DT and DE not split out. I believe you can go in by player and get each one but once again I did it at a high level so...... I would presume they would be worse though but maybe since they are DT's and not DE's more data and the ability to split DE from DT would probably be more telling. I have family coming into town so doubt I will get a chance to do it in near future. It would be interesting to pick the top 6 or so and specifically pull the data and see if it showed anything different. Once again my attempt was to see if there was a difference at higher competition and I think it showed that. Begs more questions and I suspect the statisticias the NFL teams employ do this type of stuff and the scouts review the tapes over and over to confirm or deny the findings.

    If I could find it with internet data I am sure the Bears have better data to apply and our dong there do diligence. I would not be surprised if they take a DT in round 1 or go to another position. Just wanted to see if my concerns were real and they are. Will Emery and team be comfortable with them. Thats what we cant wait to find out.
  12. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    You know this is great work my brother but I'm gonna let Emery and his scouts and maybe Tucker and Pasqualoni dig that stuff up just as you suggested. I have my concerns but they aren't enough to keep Donald from being either the #1 or #2 ranked DT. Now if Emery and his bunch surprise us like they typically do and they were to take Ha Ha or Pryor at #14 and take Quarles in two, or they traded back for Pryor and then traded up for Quarles and killed two birds with highly ranked players at positions of need I won't be sad either. I just don't want to see them going after Hageman or Tuitt who I have far greater concerns about as a 4-3 DT although either might be a good fit as a 3-4 DE.
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  13. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Here is Hageman. Sorted by ranked opponents he laid an egg. I did stop at Donald.
    upload_2014-3-16_21-55-11.png
  14. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    I dunno man. I think he requires more in depth scouting than we amatures can provide. I like the kid, but I also have worries. As Ric mentioned above, he didn't bump up to the first round untol after the Senior Bowl, and then especially after the combine. However, he won about every national award a D-Lineman can receive, above Nix, above Hegeman, above Jernigan. I remember seeing that back in January and wondered why he was slated for the second round? Maybe He IS better than all those guys and we kick ourselves when he's going to Pro-Bowls with a star on his helmet.
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  15. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    That's the funny thing about the draft, he could be a guy better then all of them, or he could be worse and we're crying about how Emery still cannot pick the right Def players. At the end of the day, I would yield to Emery and his crew on this one, but I think it's a valid point to bring up b/c many on the board seem to believe he's the only option at 14 if he's available, and while I think he's an option, I would say it's a landslide run to the podium gotta have him no matter what option either.
  16. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    It isn't a "landslide to the podium" for Donald nor should it be.

    We are just fans here not pro scouts and we all naturally have our biases. Ultimately we hope Emery and his team has their shit together and makes the best risk/benefit pick whoever that is. Personally, I just see a huge need @ 3tDT and a player who (per the expert opinions of others admittedly) fills that need very well and would help the team now and in the future given the current status of the roster.
    He could flop.
    He could fail as a pro.
    All true.

    The same could be said of Ha-Ha or whoever. Do we KNOW they're better?
    No, we don't.
    2 recent highly touted DBs that came out of Alabama and were drafted in the 1st round were Milliner and Kilpatrick...and they both have sucked so far.
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  17. a_miljan

    a_miljan Veteran

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    And thats why GM's, coaches and scouts are paid nicely for that, and we aren't. I dont care who we choose, they just need to be pretty sure we nail it, if not we will bitch about it and that is pur privilege. If we screw it up at our workplace somebody bitches about it too. Thats their job and they have all the time and funds in the world to get it right, if they can im sure there is someone who can do it better.
    Luck only happens when preparation meets opportunity!
  18. BearDownUnder

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    11 sacks and 28.5 TFL. I'm never certain who to draft but 'will he transfer his game physically from mid level college opposition to NFL' is often a lesser concern than 'will he transfer his elite physical game that occasionally flashes talent' to the NFL and then improve on that (See Corn Wash).

    I'm yet to decide exactly who my guy is yet this year. Long wasn't my guy last year so I got that one wrong. I know he played well so there is recall bias but of the last years crop of defensive talent due to go around the middle of the first round Kenny Vaccaro was the guy I liked.
  19. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    I think that right there is where the difference is when people are talking draft and what position. There seems to be different thought procesess:

    1) Biggest need has to be addressed first, working it's way down each pick to the next draft, linear drafting
    2) BPA based on need, get the best player possible each round that takes care of one of your needs, understanding that each position will get filled w/the best talent available at the time.


    Neither are really wrong, I'm all for just grabbing the best talent, I also think the team has to look at the talent level at the time, and compare each player to the depth of the talent at their position. It's not that I think S is a bigger need then DT or DE, but I think the talent level drops off far more quickly, and that position, unlike DT isn't going to be a rotational guy so he'll see the field more. So for me it's not about who, it's about who compared to the next player likely to be available when the Bears draft next. I'd be just as happy w/Dix or Pryor and Anthony Johnson or Ferguson as I would Donald and Joyner or Dixon b/c imo Donald isn't more "elite" compared to Johnson or Ferguson as HaHa or Pryor are to Joyner or Dixon.
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  20. butkus3595

    butkus3595 Veteran

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    To be fair, your concerns are backed up by numbers...which can be made to say anything. What does the game film tell you. Thats whats important. You don't know what happened on every snap of every game he played, so your statistical analysis may tell you something, it's a misleading story. As someone brought up...was he doubled all the time? What was the offensive scheme? Did the team plan to go away from him...etc, etc. Those questions can't be answered via statistical analysis...they can only be answered with film.
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