Why I am leary of Donald.

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by BSBEARS, Mar 16, 2014.

  1. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    I grabbed the data at a National look so all schools and 1 year. To really dig into it deeper would probably have to dump by conference and see where it took you. Also it groups DL so DT and DE not split out. I believe you can go in by player and get each one but once again I did it at a high level so...... I would presume they would be worse though but maybe since they are DT's and not DE's more data and the ability to split DE from DT would probably be more telling. I have family coming into town so doubt I will get a chance to do it in near future. It would be interesting to pick the top 6 or so and specifically pull the data and see if it showed anything different. Once again my attempt was to see if there was a difference at higher competition and I think it showed that. Begs more questions and I suspect the statisticias the NFL teams employ do this type of stuff and the scouts review the tapes over and over to confirm or deny the findings.

    If I could find it with internet data I am sure the Bears have better data to apply and our dong there do diligence. I would not be surprised if they take a DT in round 1 or go to another position. Just wanted to see if my concerns were real and they are. Will Emery and team be comfortable with them. Thats what we cant wait to find out.
     
  2. soulman

    soulman Coordinator
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    You know this is great work my brother but I'm gonna let Emery and his scouts and maybe Tucker and Pasqualoni dig that stuff up just as you suggested. I have my concerns but they aren't enough to keep Donald from being either the #1 or #2 ranked DT. Now if Emery and his bunch surprise us like they typically do and they were to take Ha Ha or Pryor at #14 and take Quarles in two, or they traded back for Pryor and then traded up for Quarles and killed two birds with highly ranked players at positions of need I won't be sad either. I just don't want to see them going after Hageman or Tuitt who I have far greater concerns about as a 4-3 DT although either might be a good fit as a 3-4 DE.
     
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  3. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Here is Hageman. Sorted by ranked opponents he laid an egg. I did stop at Donald.
    upload_2014-3-16_21-55-11.png
     
  4. 4dabers

    4dabers Pro-Bowler
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    I dunno man. I think he requires more in depth scouting than we amatures can provide. I like the kid, but I also have worries. As Ric mentioned above, he didn't bump up to the first round untol after the Senior Bowl, and then especially after the combine. However, he won about every national award a D-Lineman can receive, above Nix, above Hegeman, above Jernigan. I remember seeing that back in January and wondered why he was slated for the second round? Maybe He IS better than all those guys and we kick ourselves when he's going to Pro-Bowls with a star on his helmet.
     
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  5. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka
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    That's the funny thing about the draft, he could be a guy better then all of them, or he could be worse and we're crying about how Emery still cannot pick the right Def players. At the end of the day, I would yield to Emery and his crew on this one, but I think it's a valid point to bring up b/c many on the board seem to believe he's the only option at 14 if he's available, and while I think he's an option, I would say it's a landslide run to the podium gotta have him no matter what option either.
     
  6. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Hall of Famer

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    It isn't a "landslide to the podium" for Donald nor should it be.

    We are just fans here not pro scouts and we all naturally have our biases. Ultimately we hope Emery and his team has their shit together and makes the best risk/benefit pick whoever that is. Personally, I just see a huge need @ 3tDT and a player who (per the expert opinions of others admittedly) fills that need very well and would help the team now and in the future given the current status of the roster.
    He could flop.
    He could fail as a pro.
    All true.

    The same could be said of Ha-Ha or whoever. Do we KNOW they're better?
    No, we don't.
    2 recent highly touted DBs that came out of Alabama and were drafted in the 1st round were Milliner and Kilpatrick...and they both have sucked so far.
     
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  7. a_miljan

    a_miljan Pro-Bowler

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    And thats why GM's, coaches and scouts are paid nicely for that, and we aren't. I dont care who we choose, they just need to be pretty sure we nail it, if not we will bitch about it and that is pur privilege. If we screw it up at our workplace somebody bitches about it too. Thats their job and they have all the time and funds in the world to get it right, if they can im sure there is someone who can do it better.
    Luck only happens when preparation meets opportunity!
     
  8. BearDownUnder

    BearDownUnder Veteran

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    11 sacks and 28.5 TFL. I'm never certain who to draft but 'will he transfer his game physically from mid level college opposition to NFL' is often a lesser concern than 'will he transfer his elite physical game that occasionally flashes talent' to the NFL and then improve on that (See Corn Wash).

    I'm yet to decide exactly who my guy is yet this year. Long wasn't my guy last year so I got that one wrong. I know he played well so there is recall bias but of the last years crop of defensive talent due to go around the middle of the first round Kenny Vaccaro was the guy I liked.
     
  9. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka
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    I think that right there is where the difference is when people are talking draft and what position. There seems to be different thought procesess:

    1) Biggest need has to be addressed first, working it's way down each pick to the next draft, linear drafting
    2) BPA based on need, get the best player possible each round that takes care of one of your needs, understanding that each position will get filled w/the best talent available at the time.


    Neither are really wrong, I'm all for just grabbing the best talent, I also think the team has to look at the talent level at the time, and compare each player to the depth of the talent at their position. It's not that I think S is a bigger need then DT or DE, but I think the talent level drops off far more quickly, and that position, unlike DT isn't going to be a rotational guy so he'll see the field more. So for me it's not about who, it's about who compared to the next player likely to be available when the Bears draft next. I'd be just as happy w/Dix or Pryor and Anthony Johnson or Ferguson as I would Donald and Joyner or Dixon b/c imo Donald isn't more "elite" compared to Johnson or Ferguson as HaHa or Pryor are to Joyner or Dixon.
     
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  10. butkus3595

    butkus3595 Pro-Bowler

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    To be fair, your concerns are backed up by numbers...which can be made to say anything. What does the game film tell you. Thats whats important. You don't know what happened on every snap of every game he played, so your statistical analysis may tell you something, it's a misleading story. As someone brought up...was he doubled all the time? What was the offensive scheme? Did the team plan to go away from him...etc, etc. Those questions can't be answered via statistical analysis...they can only be answered with film.
     
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