Why I am leary of Donald.

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by BSBEARS, Mar 16, 2014.

  1. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    Funny this whole board was on the Donald bandwagon and now everyone is more open to options which is the point I really was trying to make. Just surprised I did not get a single like even though the thought process has changed.
    For the record I have not written Donald off and could even see us double dipping with somebody like Donald and if Quarles is there in rd 3 coming back and taking him. Houston and Quarles could line up anywhere on the line, Donald and Shea could slide into LEO and SAM positions while DJ and Briggs man the middle. The offense would be guessing if Shea or Donald is coming. Lots of options between 43 and hybrid with these 2. Up front still have Young, Ratliff, Quarles, or Houston depending how the coaches set it up. Staying in 43 you could still switch them up except for maybe Young not sure how well he could do at DT but everyone else would be fairly versatile. Ratliff played nose and 3 Technique so he is versatile as well and same with Peae to a lesser degree. Just saying with no known DE threat I could see the Bears Double Dipping on DT's using somebody like Donald and Quarles or Hageman types.
  2. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    "Funny this whole board was on the Donald bandwagon and now everyone is more open to options which is the point I really was trying to make. Just surprised I did not get a single like even though the thought process has changed."

    What? Not sure where you're going with this. So, you're suggesting that the data you showed and the points you made had a bearing on "the thought process" of "the whole board" from "band wagon" riders to a group that is "more open to options"? As a result, you feel like you needed more "likes"?
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  3. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Nah not the whole board, but a loud majority are still on Donald. I've never been quite sold on him. Guys that come out of no where scare me. Early in the season it was Nix, Hagemen, Jernigan, then all of a sudden after 1 post season bowl, Nix, Hagemen, Jernigan are late first to 2nd rounders and Donald has shot out of nowhere to a top 15 pick? I'm not saying it's wrong, but it doesn't feel right.
  4. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Anything is possible but it's unlikely Quarles will last until our pick in three. He, Hageman, and Nix are ranked right behind Donald and Jernigan. Guys like Sutton and Reid are probable 3rd rounders and while I see the versatility you're talking about with Houston and Quarles I don't see it at all with Donald. The kid is a pure 3 tech DT.

    Melton is gone now and Emery will be looking to plug that hole at 3 tech. By signing Izzy he creates an opportunity to shift Houston there and let him rotate with Collins and Ratliff but with both Ratliff (32) and Izzy (33) only good for another year or two at most he knows he needs to draft a 3 tech DT eventually if they're gonna stick with a 4-3.

    So in this draft he has four good prospects he can chose from depending on how he plays it. If he sticks at #14 and goes DT then it's probably Donald or Jernigan. He can trade back for Hageman or if he takes the FS at #14 he can look at Quarles in the second although he may need to move up for him if there's a run on DLineman.

    If we stay in a one gap 4-3 as a base defense as has been indicated then Emery needs one more DT to fill out the rotation of four. Houston's a possibility but if they decide to leave him there permanently (not out of the question) then he needs to draft a DE/DT type and that's where Hageman fits. Riddles wrapped in enigma's huh?

    If they go with a DL then Donald, Jernigan, and Hageman are all guys who, at one time or another, have been projected as the Bears first pick. Few have projected Clinton-Dix or Pryor but with Emery you never know. They say this draft has a lot of depth but lacks many elite players so it wouldn't even shock me to see Emery trade a 2015 #1 for a high 2014 #2 if he sees a guy he wants.

    Based on the view we see now with almost two months to go I'd say it's 80% certain Emery will take one of those DLs and only about 20% certain he'll go FS. But this is Emery we're talking about and he usually takes the less predictable path so who knows.
  5. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I always remind myself that the only "board" that matters is Emery's :-)

    We read the "experts" boards at ESPN, CBS, or wherever - and we accept that as gospel & people shoot up and down our player draft boards, until the actual draft unfolds and we see how the teams in the league actually see it all. There's always surprises. Most of us here were really surprised that Emery had Kyle Long rated so high, and grabbed him with our 1st round pick last season. Some where pretty upset with it as a "reach" but it really doesn't matter what we think. I'm looking forward to seeing how Emery drafts, and I'm certain we'll be surprised. That's how it seems to work with him in the draft. I just hope his "board" is right this time :)
  6. butka

    butka Veteran

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    I trust what I watch on tape. I know qualifiers means jack on a message board, but I played offensive tackle in college. I coached in college for a year as a GA. I've spent more hours studying players than your average bear. I trust my eyes, especially with line play. Analytics probably weigh less in football than any other major professional sport in the US. This isn't baseball with players constantly being on an 'island' in their play. There are so many variables, so many symbiotic relationships in football that numbers and stats just don't account for. And the closer you are to the trenches, the less analytics matter. It can be nice as an overview in some cases, but there's no chance in hell I'd take that over what I can see. Not in football. So as far as this study, I don't give it much weight.

    Donald is the best pass rushing interior defensive lineman that I've seen in this draft so far. I specifically chose to lock in on his games versus Florida State and Notre Dame because I feel they have better offensive lines. I also watched him in the senior bowl. Donald comes off the ball like he's fired out of canon. He quickly gets into the offensive lineman's body before they can get a clean punch on him. That's what you want to see. He uses multiple moves when he has to, but he often fires off so quickly, he can rip and bull rush his way to cause issues in the middle and put pressure on the QB. He uses his hands effectively. He's not perfect, but he has everything I'd like to see from a 3 technique prospect in our system. Also, his arms aren't as short as his height might indicate at 32 5/8". They're a full inch longer than Jernigan's.

    Compared directly with Jernigan, I wouldn't even say it's close for the Bears' needs. We need a pass rusher. Jernigan is going to need to learn to come off the ball a lot more explosively if he's going to be a pass rushing threat in the NFL. I think he'll be pretty decent at stuffing the run, out of the gate, for what it's worth. He has a very strong punch and lockout on tape. His legs need to be more explosive though. For what it's worth, I don't want Jernigan unless we trade down and even then, I like Quarles more as a pass rusher at this point. I wouldn't want either of the two in the first round to be honest. I don't think Jernigan lasts to pick 50 though.

    Yeah, I won't rule out other prospects, but if Donald is there at 14.... I'm still running to the podium for him unless there's a beast still sitting there. I'm thinking St. Louis at 13 is a prime trade down candidate with already having the 2nd overall pick, and I could easily see a team leapfrogging us to grab Donald if he's on the board.
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  7. Bearstuff

    Bearstuff Yes, in the woods. Staff Member SuperFan

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    And I will add:

    Were teams "ranked" the day that Pitt played them or end of season? Either is distorting things better or worse.
    Who was hurt on his team in each game, meaning he might be double teamed or need to provide support elsewhere?
    Who was crediting the stats? The site, the NCAA, the School, the conference? Each will show a different outcome.
    Does a "Ranked Team" mean much? UVA players are drafted highly each and every year, yet they suck blozz as a team. So who is to say that a poorly ranked team doesn't have NFL quality players? Or that a highly ranked team have NFL quality players across the line from him?
    You (BSBEARS) want to discount the Senior Bowl, but emphasize competition against ranked teams.....doesn't that seem contradictory?
    The article mentions he would fit well within a 4-3 scheme, specifically a Tampa 2 style. Why isn't this factoid brought up in your analysis? Is that because no one knows for sure what our scheme will be?


    I recognize that we are all finding ways to bide time until the draft, and I appreciate the effort that went into creating this data stream, but given that different teams scouting departments rank the same player differently, doesn't it make sense to just put players into "tiers" and then just hang on and see if the Bears Scouting Dept. agrees with you?
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  8. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    h
    THIS is as good an analysis of this kid as we're ever gonna get from one of our own!

    I haven't seen as much of Donald as Butka has but I believe every word spoken here and elsewhere about him is true. His size isn't that much of an issue as a 3 tech DT if he has the burst to get between double teams or beat his man one on one with sheer quickness. He's also much stronger and a better leverage player than some tackles who outweigh him and I really don't know where this "short arms" thing comes from when every scouting report on him I read tends to say just the opposite.

    I've been saying all along this kid could be another John Randle as a pass rusher and penetrator and in him were talking about a HOF DT who was the best interior pass rusher I've ever seen. In his prime the guy was virtually unblockable one on one and half the time even when he was double teamed. Double teams meant to frustrate him are what helped make Chris Doleman an All Pro DE. This kid couldn't be stopped by the best OL in this draft and he has three years of college productivity against some good teams to his credit as well.

    I believe he's the real thing and that the Bears would be foolish to pass on him if he's on the board and I hope to God he will be. Quarles may be their fall back guy or maybe it's Jernigan to back Paea because I don't see him as much as a 3 tech as I do a smaller 4-3 NT. Emery said many times that he wanted to bring Melton back if he could but we all knew that it was only for a price he could live with. He also made a point to mention how the 3 tech is the guy the rest of the line play is driven from. It's that important and I agree.

    Donald has that kind of non-stop motor, quickness and strength in a combination you want on a team who uses active DTs. Paea is similar in certain ways but he's not at the level Donald can be. There are undersized guy who excel all over the NFL. Teams passed on Elvis Dumervil early because he was just 5'11" and about 260lbs yet he's become one of the most dangerous pass rusher in the NFL. The same with Dwight Freeney in his prime. He's 6'1" and 280lb or about the same size as Donald and I sure as hell would have loved it if we could have drafted him.

    There's a lot of ground to cover yet between now and May but if the Bears don't have this kid in their sights then I have to wonder if Emery truly lacks the talent to recognize players who can be difference makers in his defense.
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  9. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    I've said this before and I'll keep saying it; there are multiple ways to make this defense better. We could use better talent at several positions, not just the DL. While the DL MUST be addressed sometime early in the draft, we could easily go CB or Safety in round 1, and address the DL in the 2nd or 3rd. Now, with that said, I like Donald a lot and I think that is the direction I would personally go, but I'm not going to break my coffee table in half come draft night if we go a different direction because the Bears know what system they are REALLY going to run this year and I have to trust their judgement at that point.

    Bottom line, I like the kid. I respect the data provided earlier in this thread, but it has not changed my mind. The ONLY knock on this kid is his height, there are no off the field issues, there are no concerns about him taking plays off; everything I've read suggests he has been a hard ass worker since he was a kid and never stops. If he was an inch taller, this wouldn't be an issue, and frankly I think his height would less of a problem than Hageman's height. How is Hageman going to get low enough to get leverage, especially late in games when his legs are screaming. Donald won't have to worry about that.
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  10. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    I don't have a problem w/Donald, I just look at his ceiling compared to other DT's and don't see a huge heigth difference in comparrison to guys like Dix/Pryor compared to some of the other safeties.

    I'd be okay w/Donald, depending on who they get at S in round 2/3.
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  11. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    I can't deny either Dix or Pryor would look really good with a "C" on their helmet. We just need about 4 first round picks!:36_1_11[1]:
  12. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    We just need to spend our 1st round picks over the next 3 years to move up to the first pick, then trade down like 3 times to get those 4 picks
  13. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Oh, If Donald is on the board when we draft mine better brace itself:rofl2:
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  14. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    You can do that? Man if it's not an expensive table that would save a lot of money buying firewood. ;)

    :rofl2:
  15. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    LOL, I COULD do it, but Mrs. 4DaBERS would quickly have my boys in a vise.:waah:
  16. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Best wrap your hands in towels then. The "boys" must be protected at all cost. :kick2nuts: :bah:
  17. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    Didn't "come out of no where". Where did you get that idea from???
    This isn't just a "combine hero" or "Senior Bowl star" only.
    Totally false.

    Sr. Year: 11 sacks, 28.5 TFLs, 59 total T, 3 passes defended, 4 forced fumbles

    Average of Soph & Jr. Years: 8 sacks, 50 total T, 17 TFLs, 3 PD, 1 FF

    The chief "knock" on this guy from what I've read is that he was thought to be yeah really good but too small to hold up in the NFL. Well, not only did he dominate against Senior Bowl competition (many of whom are future NFL draft picks fighting like hell to impress in that game) but he measured in at the combine at just shy of 6' 1" & nearly 290 lbs.

    My chief worry about him at this point isn't that he's unqualified, it's that he might not even make it to #14 anymore.
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2014
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  18. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    I'm getting it from the fact that all season the 3 best DT's were Nix, Hagemen, Jernigan in that order. Then Sr Bowl roles around and NOW it's Donald clearly #1.
  19. butkus3595

    butkus3595 Pro-Bowler

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    A lot of times that occurs because those 3 just got more exposure than Donald, so many of the people who do "rankings" may not have seen him. At the senior bowl his play forced them to look at his game film, which backs up his current ranking. Hageman has risen too lately...a lot of people had him pegged for the second round.
  20. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    I understand re-evaluating the tape. Just find it amazing how much the player rankings change after the year is done resulting from Sr Bowl and combine. These should confim a player not drastically move a player Going from 5th or 6th DT to the best is a big flag to me; We look forward to the Bears O-line being the same and building on last yr the continuity will bring imrprovement. We have all heard that___ There is no continuity in the SR. bowl 0-line, of course he will look good.

    upload_2014-3-21_13-10-4.png

    Its not like Pitt is a small school with no exposure but now he is the best. That is my concern. If he truely projects as the top NFL DT in the class 2 yrs from now I would love to have him. All these questions and the rapid rise after the season just make me question who will be the best down the road and if it was so clear he would have made it nearer the top before the season ended.
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